May 2022

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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jasons2k
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We received 0.71” here. A bit lower than the WPC etc. were forecasting but I’ll gladly take it.

Looks like the actual front is crossing Montgomery County now. Onto the next….

The chance of rain for next week is gone from TWC app.
Cpv17
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Well I ended up with 1.85” total since Saturday. Not nearly what I wanted but thankful for what I got. This event was way overhyped in my personal opinion. Feedback loop to blame. Otherwise this would’ve probably been a major event.
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jasons2k
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Cpv17 wrote: Wed May 25, 2022 8:55 am Well I ended up with 1.85” total since Saturday. Not nearly what I wanted but thankful for what I got. This event was way overhyped in my personal opinion. Feedback loop to blame. Otherwise this would’ve probably been a major event.
You got almost 2” of rain. I’ve had 3.5” since Saturday. Pretty close to forecast and the most rain I’ve had in a long time. I wouldn’t say that was overhyped. Jeff, NWS and pretty much every pro-met I saw said to expect some much-needed rainfall but not enough to cause flooding problems. Pretty much describes what we saw…
Cpv17
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jasons2k wrote: Wed May 25, 2022 9:18 am
Cpv17 wrote: Wed May 25, 2022 8:55 am Well I ended up with 1.85” total since Saturday. Not nearly what I wanted but thankful for what I got. This event was way overhyped in my personal opinion. Feedback loop to blame. Otherwise this would’ve probably been a major event.
You got almost 2” of rain. I’ve had 3.5” since Saturday. Pretty close to forecast and the most rain I’ve had in a long time. I wouldn’t say that was overhyped. Jeff, NWS and pretty much every pro-met I saw said to expect some much-needed rainfall but not enough to cause flooding problems. Pretty much describes what we saw…
That’s your opinion. With such high rain chances for 3+ days and seeing multiple different runs of models give me several inches of rain, I expected more.
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tireman4
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 251138
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
638 AM CDT Wed May 25 2022

.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...

Thunderstorms have already moved out of the terminals. However,
light rain will continue through mid morning. Some hi- res models
suggest a brief window of MVFR ceilings returning this afternoon
along with isolated showers as the main sfc cold front moves
through. Most of these showers and/or storms look to develop
across terminals south of I-10. Light and variable winds this
morning will transition to the northwest and west this afternoon
and evening. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected through the
period.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 432 AM CDT Wed May 25 2022/...



.SHORT TERM [through Thursday Night]...

Latest satellite imagery and radar show a line of strong to severe
thunderstorms quickly moving southeastward across Southeast TX early
this morning. At 2AM, this line of severe thunderstorms was located
between the Brazos Valley area and the Houston metro area has a
history of producing damaging winds with gusts up to 65 mph and
small hail. As this pre-frontal boundary moves southeast into the
Houston metro area, a narrow corridor of low-level jet will
intensify in the convergence zone, allowing for a good surge of low
level moisture to be advected over the region along with decent
MUCAPE. These ingredients will help to keep convection/severe wx
threat for areas east of I-45 through at least daybreak. With DCAPE
around 800 to 1200 J/kg, damaging winds will continue to be the
primary threat. Locally heavy rainfall and frequent lightning are
also expected. The severe weather threat will gradually diminish
between 4 - 6 AM, but showers and non-severe thunderstorms will
linger through mid-late morning. Some hi-res/CAMs models suggest
another round of showers and non-severe thunderstorms later this
afternoon as the main upper-level trough axis and the sfc cold front
slide through the region. With enough forcing, daytime heating and
low to mid level moisture still lingering over the area, have kept
precipitation chances around 20 to 50 percent for this afternoon and
evening. If something were to develop it will mainly be focused
along and south of I-10/ over the coastal zones. Clouds will be slow
to decrease today, keeping high temperatures mainly from the mid to
upper 70s.

A quiet night is expected with light west to northwest winds and
clouds slowly clearing from west to east. With residual low-level
moisture and light winds, patchy fog will be possible. Overnight
lows will range from the mid 50s to low 70s, with the coolest
readings across our northern counties.

Sfc high pressure builds in over central TX, bringing drier
conditions through the end of the short-term period. Highs will
climb into the mid to upper 80s on Thursday. 05


.LONG TERM [Friday through Wednesday]...

Not expecting too many issues during the long term with the pattern
being mostly influenced by deepening high pressure over the region.
The weakening surface high over the state will allow for the return
of light onshore winds to SE TX by Fri. These winds are forecast to
strengthen through the upcoming weekend as the gradient tightens in
response to the next low pressure system deepening/tracking through
the Central Plains. And combined with an amplifying mid/upper ridge
during this same time frame, the result will be slowly warming tem-
peratures and increasing humidity levels starting on Sat and likely
persisting into much of next week. No rain is expected for the week
end with these chances only marginally "better" for the early parts
of next week. Models have been hinting at the passage of an embedd-
ed shortwave or two, but with the much deeper moisture staying over
the Gulf waters, POPs will be minimal. High temperatures in the up-
per 80s to around 90 on Fri will then warm to the lower 90s for the
weekend and the first half of next week. 41


.MARINE...

A Small Craft Advisory will remain in effect until mid morning with
conditions improving after the passage of the line of strong storms.
Light to moderate west and southwest winds should prevail today but
will be expecting light northerly winds to develop tonight with the
passage of a weak cold front. The offshore flow will be short-lived
as high pressure building into the region produces a more light and
variable flow by Thurs night. Light onshore winds are set to return
Fri...then strengthening through the weekend. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 77 58 85 64 89 / 30 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 78 62 85 66 89 / 60 20 0 10 0
Galveston (GLS) 81 71 84 75 86 / 70 30 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for the following
zones: Bolivar Peninsula...Brazoria Islands...Galveston
Island...Matagorda Islands.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for the
following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda
Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island
to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...Matagorda
Bay...Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX
from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport TX
from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$
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captainbarbossa19
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Unless I get more rain before the month is over, I am happily at 3.62 inches for the month. Last month I think was about 0.5 so I will gladly take it.
Cpv17
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Welp, back to the death ridge for the majority of the state. Probably not gonna have to worry about any tropical systems coming this way either over the next week or two if something does try to develop.
Stratton20
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We will see, its definitely way too early to know if anything is gonna cross over from the pacific and into the GOM or BOC, models still hinting at it, anything beyond that is speculation though, rather take a weak sheared tropical system than this terrible death ridge, near 100 this weekend for me🤢🤢🤮
Cpv17
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Stratton20 wrote: Thu May 26, 2022 4:51 pm We will see, its definitely way too early to know if anything is gonna cross over from the pacific and into the GOM or BOC, models still hinting at it, anything beyond that is speculation though, rather take a weak sheared tropical system than this terrible death ridge, near 100 this weekend for me🤢🤢🤮
I think the steering pattern would push it towards the eastern Gulf if something were to develop. We’ll see..but yeah this heat sucks. Especially when you have to work in it. Not even drinking cold water or Gatorade helps much when you have to work in it. At least it’s not every day that I have to work in it though. Thankfully we do get some breaks from having to do that.
Stratton20
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CPV17 yep it appears even if 91E gets into the BOC it would get shoved towards the eastern gulf, though im not 100% believing that until we see if something actually gets into the BOC or not, or even reforms
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captainbarbossa19
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12z Euro is a bit wetter than the past few runs. Looks like some possible disturbances towards the end of next week. A bit far out, but I am not surprised to see a shift back towards a slightly wetter pattern. When you get storms late in spring heading towards summer in our area, it is less likely that ridging will be dominant through the whole summer. 2010 and 2011 did not feature much rain in May. We know what happened those summers. I was looking at rainfall data from years past, and for my area, it looks like this year is a lot like 2005. Of course, I am not suggesting that what will happen later will be like 2005, but there are a lot of similarities including an unusual long period of above-normal temperatures in May that year.
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jasons2k
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Hot one today…
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jasons2k
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captainbarbossa19 wrote: Fri May 27, 2022 3:14 pm 12z Euro is a bit wetter than the past few runs. Looks like some possible disturbances towards the end of next week. A bit far out, but I am not surprised to see a shift back towards a slightly wetter pattern. When you get storms late in spring heading towards summer in our area, it is less likely that ridging will be dominant through the whole summer. 2010 and 2011 did not feature much rain in May. We know what happened those summers. I was looking at rainfall data from years past, and for my area, it looks like this year is a lot like 2005. Of course, I am not suggesting that what will happen later will be like 2005, but there are a lot of similarities including an unusual long period of above-normal temperatures in May that year.
There are a number of analogs to 2005 for hurricane season as well. Folks need to be prepared.

I can’t believe it’s been 17 years. That’s the year we moved here (the third time for me) and we had Rita and the evacuation right after Katrina. That season set a new bar and yet we have had a few more seasons now that were close.

A number of things stick out from that season (and 2004 also). The forums were so busy. And while we had access to all sorts of things on the internet in prior seasons, 2004-2005 seemed like the beginning of a new era with an explosion of 24/7 updates and a quantum leap forward in model accuracy.

I’ll always remember what the GFDL did with Katrina over Florida. And before too long that model went into the dumpster. We’ve come a long way…that’s for sure…but we can’t take any forecast for granted.
Cpv17
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jasons2k wrote: Fri May 27, 2022 5:43 pm Hot one today…
Is it so much hotter in your area compared to mine because of all the concrete around you? Urban vs rural…
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captainbarbossa19
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Cpv17 wrote: Fri May 27, 2022 6:15 pm
jasons2k wrote: Fri May 27, 2022 5:43 pm Hot one today…
Is it so much hotter in your area compared to mine because of all the concrete around you? Urban vs rural…
Yeah I was only 92 today.
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captainbarbossa19
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jasons2k wrote: Fri May 27, 2022 5:53 pm
captainbarbossa19 wrote: Fri May 27, 2022 3:14 pm 12z Euro is a bit wetter than the past few runs. Looks like some possible disturbances towards the end of next week. A bit far out, but I am not surprised to see a shift back towards a slightly wetter pattern. When you get storms late in spring heading towards summer in our area, it is less likely that ridging will be dominant through the whole summer. 2010 and 2011 did not feature much rain in May. We know what happened those summers. I was looking at rainfall data from years past, and for my area, it looks like this year is a lot like 2005. Of course, I am not suggesting that what will happen later will be like 2005, but there are a lot of similarities including an unusual long period of above-normal temperatures in May that year.
There are a number of analogs to 2005 for hurricane season as well. Folks need to be prepared.

I can’t believe it’s been 17 years. That’s the year we moved here (the third time for me) and we had Rita and the evacuation right after Katrina. That season set a new bar and yet we have had a few more seasons now that were close.

A number of things stick out from that season (and 2004 also). The forums were so busy. And while we had access to all sorts of things on the internet in prior seasons, 2004-2005 seemed like the beginning of a new era with an explosion of 24/7 updates and a quantum leap forward in model accuracy.

I’ll always remember what the GFDL did with Katrina over Florida. And before too long that model went into the dumpster. We’ve come a long way…that’s for sure…but we can’t take any forecast for granted.
I hear you. I remember seeing the cone heading towards my area for Rita and thinking it was strong, but Laura in 2020 scared me more honestly. I really thought that storm was going to be a direct hit around High Island until it turned and hit around Cameron.
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jasons2k
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Cpv17 wrote: Fri May 27, 2022 6:15 pm
jasons2k wrote: Fri May 27, 2022 5:43 pm Hot one today…
Is it so much hotter in your area compared to mine because of all the concrete around you? Urban vs rural…
I believe so, yes. My station is also wedged between two houses. Still, the readings around me are very similar.!
Cromagnum
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Returned to this hell after a few days in Michigan. If it weren't for the equally cold days during the winter in the north, I would totally move. Maybe I need to have two homes.
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tireman4
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I can attest to how hot it was. Had to officiate an outdoor swim meet from 8 30 am to 1 30 pm
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DoctorMu
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97 in Cll today. 95 yesterday. DP in the 60s during the day.

We’re up in Minnesota’s. 70s and 80s for highs Rains have been early am and the clearing,
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