May 2022

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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tireman4
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May 2022

Post by tireman4 » Sun Apr 17, 2022 3:51 pm

Shall it be hot? Warm? Rainy? Dry? Stay tuned!

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Re: May 2022

Post by captainbarbossa19 » Fri Apr 22, 2022 12:44 pm

tireman4 wrote:
Sun Apr 17, 2022 3:51 pm
Shall it be hot? Warm? Rainy? Dry? Stay tuned!
I have seen a few predictions calling for a wetter May. We shall see, but this has happened before.

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Re: May 2022

Post by captainbarbossa19 » Sun May 01, 2022 2:36 pm

If weather cooperates, we will be able to see a total lunar eclipse on the 15th. We are in the zone for totality.

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Re: May 2022

Post by jasons2k » Sun May 01, 2022 3:03 pm

Picked up a quick .32” from the first storm. Intense lightning. It went severe after it passed by. No hail here.

Another line to the south.

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Re: May 2022

Post by DoctorMu » Sun May 01, 2022 6:10 pm

Yeah, the seabreeze made it to about Navasota and no closer to us.

Welcome to May!

NWS is still betting on Thursday in NW counties for precip. Sight chance of a storm tomorrow and Tuesday.


However, less FROPA, more ridging for next weekend.

Welcome to summer. A month early.

It's a ways out, but GFS on the 18z teases use with a front around May 10 with low in the upper 50s in CLL (it is May). Ensembles show a weaker front. Canadian = nothing


Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
345 PM CDT Sun May 1 2022


.SHORT TERM [Through Monday Night]...

Isolated showers and thunderstorms from Austin to Liberty County are
slowly drifting north this afternoon. Once these storms get tall
enough to send out a few CG lightning strikes, they collapse quickly
and the anvil gets stripped away. However, instability has been
steadily increasing throughout the day, so these showers and storms
are becoming a little stronger and better organized with a few
potentially reaching severe criteria. This activity will begin to
wane after sunset tonight as the warm front draped across Dallas
continues to lift north. Overnight lows are a little tricky and
dependent on cloud cover. Right now we can expect partly cloudy
skies overnight, which will cool temps into the low to mid 70s.
However, should cloud coverage increase overnight, then temps
could be a few degrees warmer.

A weak upper level trough will be clipping our northern counties
tomorrow, but forecast soundings show enough CIN to make it
difficult for showers and storms to form. Therefore, kept PoPs in
the teens and twenties for tomorrow. Otherwise, it will be
another warm and humid day as onshore flow increases due to a
strengthening low over SE Colorado. However, 850 mb temps climb to
16-17 deg C, so it should be a few degrees warmer as highs
approach near 90. Therefore, overnight lows will also be a few
degrees warmer tomorrow night and in the mid 70s for most areas.

Lenninger


.LONG TERM [Tuesday Through Sunday]...

On Tuesday, an approaching cold front will stall out near the DFW
metroplex but is expected to send a gradually dissipating MCS our
way going into the afternoon/evening. Resultingly, 20%-30% PoPs are
relegated mainly north of Harris County as they`ll likely dissipate
before making it to the Houston metro area. After that, the
predominating pattern takes hold once again as we`ll have
subtropical ridging attempting to take a stronghold over the area,
but another incoming upper-level trough looks to put a brief halt to
that on Thursday. As a result, temperatures on Tuesday/Wednesday
will be hot but not as hot as what we could see at the end of the
week. High temperatures these two days will range from the upper 80s
to low 90s.

The previously mentioned upper-level trough generates lee
cyclogenesis with the corresponding surface low traversing across
the Central Plains and towards the Upper Midwest. This low will
"attempt" to push a cold front through on late Thursday. I say
attempt because the models have been constantly flip-flopping on
whether or not the front makes it or even the day it pushes through.
Today`s 12Z model suite decided to jump off the FROPA train. The
front does increase PW values to 1.7"-1.9", so this will still be
our most favorable period for rainfall. However, if you were
expecting "less hot" temperatures...I`m sorry.
There`s still
quite a bit of time between now and Thursday, so models will
likely flip-flop a bit more. Just keep in mind that IF a cold front
pushes through, it`s still the month of May.

With the trend away from FROPA, you can imagine what the temperature
trend is now. Temperature stonks to the moon! Initially, this may
be aided by drier air though which heats pretty efficiently. It
also cools efficiently too, so northern locations on Thursday and
Friday night get a slight reprieve from the warm and muggy
temperatures as they drop into the low to mid 60s. On Friday,
expect widespread high temperatures in the low 90s, and then
it`s time to get ready for...

Hot

Houston

Summer

Ridging builds back in over the weekend and the 588 dm height
line continues to get closer and closer as the ridge is amplified
by an incoming deep upper-level trough over the western CONUS.
The warming trend takes us into the low to mid 90s for Saturday
with more locations reaching the mid 90s on Sunday. We`ll have to
start keeping an eye on the heat index next weekend as well as
there are already hints of heat indices approaching the triple
digits. It`s still a bit far out, but NAEFS indicates
temperatures in the 90th percentile for Sunday and even extending
into early next week. Each day we get closer to summer...

Batiste


.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...

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Re: May 2022

Post by Stratton20 » Sun May 01, 2022 11:59 pm

Take this with a huge grain of salt as its 12 days out, man 00z GFS went bonkers, this would be a flood potential setup, not uncommon to get some pretty big rain events in may though
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Re: May 2022

Post by mcheer23 » Mon May 02, 2022 7:46 am

Stratton20 wrote:
Sun May 01, 2022 11:59 pm
Take this with a huge grain of salt as its 12 days out, man 00z GFS went bonkers, this would be a flood potential setup, not uncommon to get some pretty big rain events in may though
CPC has some of TX in above average rainfall
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Re: May 2022

Post by Stratton20 » Mon May 02, 2022 1:29 pm

Hurricane Season or at least the start is only a month a way and man the GOM is running pretty well above normal right now, not something you want to see

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Re: May 2022

Post by tireman4 » Mon May 02, 2022 1:55 pm

000
FXUS64 KHGX 021738
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1238 PM CDT Mon May 2 2022

.AVIATION [18Z TAF ISSUANCE]...

Expecting MVFR ceilings again tonight into Tue morning. Southerly
winds will remain around 15kts with higher gusts this aft,
subsiding some this evening. Southerly winds again tomorrow, but
not quite as strong as today. There is a slight chc of TSRA around
CLL this eve, but the prob is low, so not in the TAF. Also, a
slight chc of SHRA late tonight for TAF sites south of I-10, but
again the prob is low, so no SHRA in the TAFs for now.

Wood

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 616 AM CDT Mon May 2 2022/

AVIATION [12Z TAF ISSUANCE]...

MVFR cigs currently across SE Texas will gradually lift later this
morning, possibly scattering out this afternoon. Some isolated
SH/TS are possible as a weak shortwave embeded in the zonal flow
aloft moves across the region. Main sites that could be affected
are CLL/UTS/CXO. Moderate southerly winds today as pressure
gradient tightens, with speed ranging between 15-20 KTS and gusts
between 23-28 KTS. MVFR to possibly IFR cigs return tonight into
Tue morning with winds decreasing to 10-15 KTS.

24

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT Mon May 2 2022/

DISCUSSION...

Just looking like a quintessential late spring week here in
Southeast Texas. Warm temperatures - generally running 5 to 10
degrees above average, or more in line with typical late May
temperatures are in the forecast for virtually the entire week.
The main thunderstorm action will largely take place to our north,
but there is at least a little chance of showers and storms north
of the Houston metro on most days.

The main exception to this trend will come Thursday into Friday as
models continue to suggest a front strong enough to actually push
into Southeast Texas, bringing more widespread rain chances to the
area. Though onshore flow resumes pretty quickly, it should also
give us a drier and cooler night (or two if we`re lucky!) before
more summer-like heat begins to build in over the weekend.

SHORT TERM [Through Tuesday Night]...

A few shortwaves embedded in the zonal flow aloft will move across
Southeast TX today and Tuesday, which will continue to provide a
chance in showers and thunderstorms both days. Today`s shortwave
will pass through this afternoon/evening and could trigger a few
storms mainly across the northern counties. But, according to the
forecast soundings, these showers will have to surpass the cap that
will hold in place for much of the day. At the moment, the best
chance for storms to develop would be around noon to mid afternoon
as diurnal heating ramps up, the cap slightly erodes, and lingering
boundaries from storms that will move in from the west later this
morning combine. Will continue to have some PoPs for the northern
counties, but an isolated storm or two could develop over portions
north of I-10 corridor. If storms do develop, stronger ones could
produce hail, gusty variable winds, and locally heavy rain.
Otherwise, expect breezy conditions as winds strengthen in response
to the pressure gradient tightening over Southeast TX and warmer
temperatures with highs likely in the upper 80s to possibly low 90s.
Persistent south southeasterly flow with mostly cloudy skies tonight
will result in warm and humid conditions, with lows ranging between
the mid to upper 70s areawide.

A similar pattern is expected Tuesday, with another shortwave moving
through Southeast TX during the day, while a cold front stalls across
Central TX. And with less cap in place during the day along with
warm (highs in the upper 80s to low 90s) and humid conditions on the
surface, expect another round of showers and thunderstorms to
develop again for areas north of I-10 corridor. We may also have
storms developing across Central TX move into the northern areas
from time to time. Forecast soundings for Tuesday once again
indicate the potential for hail, strong gusty winds and locally
heavy downpours with the stronger storms, in particular over the
northern half where the cap is weaker. Activity if any, is expected
to dissipate during the evening hours. Partly cloudy early Tuesday
night will become mostly cloudy overnight with lows in the mid to
upper 70s, possibly a few degrees cooler along the northern
counties.

LONG TERM [Wednesday Through Monday]...

Wednesday looks relatively dry, as ridging aloft should keep any
daytime convection under wraps. I wouldn`t go so far as to say
rain chances are zero, but it`s usually pretty telling when
someone says "the chances aren`t actually zero..." It also should
be one of the warmer days of the week as morning clouds scatter
out, with afternoon highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s. But
while this is occurring over Southeast Texas, there are hints of
change. The next upper trough in the northern stream train will be
dropping off the Rockies, with lee cyclogenesis on the high
plains.

In the pre-dawn hours on Thursday, the surface low looks to be
over Central Oklahoma exiting northeastward, while it trails a
cold font back into West Texas. That front will push across the
state through the day, and depending on just how fast it moves and
where convection fires Thursday afternoon, we could be in a spot
with convective activity and prime instability. What we`re not
likely to have is a lot of shear to support updraft organization -
with the upper vort max and surface low over Kansas, we`ll have
largely southwesterly flow off the deck, with only some modest
speed shear in place over our area. Our neighbors in Fort Worth
and Shreveport, with better upper support, will be looking at the
main severe threat. Meanwhile, we`ll have instability-fueled cells
that could pulse up towards severe thresholds - especially north
of Conroe - but the farther south you go, the less potential there
will be.

The front will continue to push coastward through Thursday night,
carrying potential for showers and storms on the boundary as it
goes. I would not expect a whole lot in the way of colder air
behind this front - it`s May, y`all. The post-frontal air should
be drier, so Thursday night and maybe even Friday night should see
better radiational cooling and drop more into the 60s because of
that. Of course, the flipside to this is that drier air also warms
up more efficiently, so daytime highs aren`t likely to drop all
that much. Well, this goes north of I-10, anyway. It is not
particularly clear how much influence the front will have beyond
the initial rain chances towards the coast.

Beyond a night or two, it`s all likely to be moot anyway as
onshore flow looks to be fully back in place Friday night. At the
same time, stronger ridging builds in over the Plains between two
potent troughs over the Eastern and Western US. This sets us up
for a strong heating trend this weekend. The NAEFS mean suggests
90th percentile temps at the coast developing, while the EPS mean
goes to the 99th percentile, even. The EPS Extreme Forecast Index
also highlights this area (probably unsurprisingly given the
mean`s performance) with temperature EFIs above 0.6 across
Southeast Texas, and exceeding 0.7 at the coast. In short, get
ready for things to get even *more* summer-like. Given the
strength of the midlevel ridge, I`m not sure if I`m ready to get
75th percentile NBM aggressive, and so I hew near - but a touch
warmer than - the deterministic NBM, which is already warmer than
the distribution`s median. We should see highs reach into the 90s
for all but the Gulf-tempered coast (hooray for water temps below
80 yet).

Now...from the description earlier of a Plains ridge between
coastal troughs, some of y`all might be thinking "That sounds like
an Omega block!" And...you might be right. Fortunately, this is
beyond the current forecast period. But if such a block sets up,
this trend of hot days with little to no rain chances might be
with us deeper into next week. Stay tuned.

MARINE...

Persistent onshore flow will continue through at least Thursday.
Thursday night, an approaching front may briefly turn winds near
the coast offshore, but will rapidly become onshore winds again by
the weekend. At times some periods of stronger winds may warrant
caution flags or even a small craft advisory. Rain chances on the
waters look to be relatively low most of the week, peaking
Thursday night with the front moving in.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 90 73 90 72 90 / 20 20 20 10 10
Houston (IAH) 88 74 89 74 88 / 20 10 20 10 10
Galveston (GLS) 85 76 86 76 83 / 10 10 10 10 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Beach Hazards Statement through Tuesday morning for the
following zones: Bolivar Peninsula...Brazoria Islands...
Galveston Island...Matagorda Islands.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for the
following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda
Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island
to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay.

&&

$$

Discussion...33
Aviation/Marine...33

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Re: May 2022

Post by redneckweather » Mon May 02, 2022 3:06 pm

Stratton20 wrote:
Mon May 02, 2022 1:29 pm
Hurricane Season or at least the start is only a month a way and man the GOM is running pretty well above normal right now, not something you want to see

I hear someone say this every year.lol Let the chips fall where they may.

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