Stratton20 wrote: ↑Mon May 02, 2022 2:29 pm
Hurricane Season or at least the start is only a month a way and man the GOM is running pretty well above normal right now, not something you want to see
Temps this weekend and beyond, about 10-13°F above normal will continue the early warming of the GoM incubator.
A bit of a break Thursday and Friday but only easing toward normal, but still 5-6°F above normal!
The Big Suck returns! And a month early this year.
Stratton20 wrote: ↑Mon May 02, 2022 2:29 pm
Hurricane Season or at least the start is only a month a way and man the GOM is running pretty well above normal right now, not something you want to see
Yep! Should starting seeing 29-30°C temps in the Gulf before you know it.
Stratton20 wrote: ↑Mon May 02, 2022 2:29 pm
Hurricane Season or at least the start is only a month a way and man the GOM is running pretty well above normal right now, not something you want to see
Temps this weekend and beyond, about 10-13°F above normal will continue the early warming of the GoM incubator.
A bit of a break Thursday and Friday but only easing toward normal, but still 5-6°F above normal!
The Big Suck returns! And a month early this year.
I knew (and posted) awhile back it was gonna flip and flip fast. It happened a little later than I expected, because we’ve been running a month behind for so long all spring and then bam - it’s summer. Not surprised.
We may need to look out for an early season spin up in the Gulf. Yes, I posted that here before S2K. Just for my local peeps.
Get ready. We need to be ready and prepared for this season.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
628 AM CDT Tue May 3 2022
.AVIATION [12Z TAF ISSUANCE]...
MVFR cigs currently across Southeast TX are expected to lift
during the morning hours and scatter out in the afternoon/evening
for most sites. CLL/UTS/CXO may continue to see VFR BKN/OVC skies
through the evening. There is chance for SH/TS today mainly across
areas north of the I-10 corridor. Have added VCSH for CLL/UTS/CXO
for this taf set, but TEMPOs may be added in the next set
depending on how the wx evolves. S winds at 10-15 KTS with higher
gusts on occasion today relaxing to 5-10 KTS tonight. MVFR to
possible IFR cigs will return tonight into Wed morning. Some
patchy fog could develop overnight if winds relax enough to
support it. Sites most likely to develop fog are CXO/UTS and
possibly IAH. S-SE winds will increase Wed as pressure gradient
tightens again with speeds around 15 KTS and gusts around 25 KTS.
24
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CDT Tue May 3 2022/
SHORT TERM [Today through Wednesday Night]...
We have been monitoring the progress of the line of showers and
thunderstorms moving south southeastward from North Central TX this
morning, which still looks healthy enough to make it across the
northern sectors of Southeast TX around sunrise. In addition, a mid
to upper level shortwave embedded in the zonal flow aloft will begin
to move across Southeast TX around the same time, while a cold front
stalls just to our north. Persistent onshore flow maintaining
sufficient moisture on the surface (PWs of 1.3 to 1.5 inches) and
very good SFC/MU CAPE along with mid level lapse rates around 7 C/km
this morning should support the livelihood of these storms as they
move across areas north of I-10 as well as support additional storms
developing locally. During the afternoon, may see a gradual decrease
in activity as the cap gets stronger across the local area. Based on
forecast soundings, if any strong storms develop, they may be
capable of producing hail, strong gusty winds and locally heavy
rainfall. Otherwise, expect another breezy, warm and humid day with
southerly winds of 10-15 MPH with higher gusts on occasion and highs
in the upper 80s to low 90s areawide. Although skies will scatter
out in the afternoon, mostly cloudy conditions are expected to
return tonight, thus, expect lows to be mostly in the mid 70s range
again tonight into early Wednesday morning. There is a chance of
some patchy fog though winds may not relax enough to support it.
Thus, kept it out of this forecast package, but some spots that
could end up getting patchy fog would be areas in and around Conroe
and Huntsville.
For Wednesday, weak mid to upper level ridge moving through the area
along with the cap being stronger will result in mostly dry
conditions for Southeast TX. There may be some rain making into the
northernmost sectors in the afternoon/evening from showers and
storms developing across the northern and central portions of TX,
but chances are low. Wednesday will be another warm and fairly humid
day with afternoon temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s and
dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s. Winds will pick up again as
the pressure gradient re-strengthens with speeds ranging between 15-
20 MPH and higher gusts, so it will at least help with how hot it
will feel outdoors (keeping apparent temperatures in the mid to
upper 90s). Lows Wednesday night into early Thursday morning will be
in the low to mid 70s.
24
LONG TERM [Thursday Through Tuesday]...
The next cold front will be moving into the area during the day on Thursday.
Showers and thunderstorms will accompany this boundary, and there could
be an increasing risk of strong/severe storms as the day progresses
(see SPC`s Day 3 Convective Outlook) especially in/around some of our
northern counties and further off to the northeast toward the Arklatex
area where greater instability will be found. Will continue to carry
our higher rain chances up north and our lower rain chances south, but
this configuration could end up changing depending on if/where/when
any boundaries set up. Look for decreasing rain chances heading into
Thursday night and Friday morning. The forecast then stays dry and increasingly
warm/humid over the weekend and on into the start of the next week.
Our next chance of rain might end up being on Tuesday afternoon and/or
Tuesday night.
For temperatures, most areas should stay in the 80s on Thursday due
to increasing cloud cover and rain chances. The warming trend looks
to begin on Friday (inland highs mainly in the low 90s) and persist
over the weekend and into early next week (inland highs around the mid
90s). Heat index values above 100 are in the forecast for Saturday through
Tuesday. Heat Advisories will not be needed for these numbers, but precautions
should still be taken if planning on any extended outdoor activity.
42
MARINE...
A mainly moderate onshore flow and elevated seas will persist into midweek.
Caution/advisory flags will be needed at times. A weak cold front will
move into southeast Texas during a Thursday afternoon through Friday
morning time period. This will probably be our best chance of rain for
the remainder of the week and on into the start of the weekend. Winds
and seas will slightly diminish as the front moves closer, but then
pick up again heading into the weekend. 42
CLIMATE...
After having their warmest April on record, new record high minimum
temperatures have been set at Galveston for the first two days of the
new month, and more records could be coming over the next several days
not only at Galveston but also at some of our other three main climate
sites.
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for the following
zones: Bolivar Peninsula...Brazoria Islands...Galveston
Island...Matagorda Islands.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon CDT today for the following
zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship
Channel TX out 20 NM...Matagorda Bay...Waters from Freeport
to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM.
Thursday Night A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 71.
Friday Mostly sunny, with a high near 92.
Friday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 71.
Saturday Sunny, with a high near 96.
Saturday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 73.
Sunday Sunny, with a high near 95.
Sunday Nigh tPartly cloudy, with a low around 74.
Monday Mostly sunny, with a high near 93. Breezy.
Stratton20 wrote: ↑Mon May 02, 2022 2:29 pm
Hurricane Season or at least the start is only a month a way and man the GOM is running pretty well above normal right now, not something you want to see
Temps this weekend and beyond, about 10-13°F above normal will continue the early warming of the GoM incubator.
A bit of a break Thursday and Friday but only easing toward normal, but still 5-6°F above normal!
The Big Suck returns! And a month early this year.
I knew (and posted) awhile back it was gonna flip and flip fast. It happened a little later than I expected, because we’ve been running a month behind for so long all spring and then bam - it’s summer. Not surprised.
We may need to look out for an early season spin up in the Gulf. Yes, I posted that here before S2K. Just for my local peeps.
Get ready. We need to be ready and prepared for this season.
Models and Ensembles are consistent with a massive upper level ridge building next week. Brief relief, then a Death Ridge builds over Texas by May 19.
This weekend will be hot...then it's going to get worse. Any precip. is progged as mostly going to be north of the area. CLL might get lucky Thursday and late next week.
Last edited by DoctorMu on Tue May 03, 2022 5:04 pm, edited 1 time in total.
DoctorMu wrote: ↑Tue May 03, 2022 2:06 pm
Models and Ensembles are consistent with a massive upper level ridge building next week. Brief relief, then a Death Ridge builds over Texas by May 19.
This weekend will be hot...then it's going to get worse. Any precip. is progged as mostly going to be north of the area. CLL might get lucky Thursday and late next week.
I will go with the consensus for next week, but beyond that all bets are off on what will happen. May has a tendency to pull weird tricks with rain. Sometimes it's bone dry all month, but that is not super common. Only 4 years since 2000 recorded less than one inch of rain at IAH for the month of May: 2003, 2009, 2011, and 2012.
The front is near Hearne, but it's not going to make it to CLL. It's 16°F cooler in Marlin with a northerly breeze. AAAAaaargh! The wind died down completely, and now It's hot, humid, dark, and the mosquitoes are out.
Temps this weekend and beyond, about 10-13°F above normal will continue the early warming of the GoM incubator.
A bit of a break Thursday and Friday but only easing toward normal, but still 5-6°F above normal!
The Big Suck returns! And a month early this year.
I knew (and posted) awhile back it was gonna flip and flip fast. It happened a little later than I expected, because we’ve been running a month behind for so long all spring and then bam - it’s summer. Not surprised.
We may need to look out for an early season spin up in the Gulf. Yes, I posted that here before S2K. Just for my local peeps.
Get ready. We need to be ready and prepared for this season.
Unfortunately looks like a death ridge is set to build right over us next week, tommorow looks like our past real chance for rain for quite some time, I see lots of upper 90’s and low 100’s for texas coming up in the future
DoctorMu wrote: ↑Tue May 03, 2022 2:06 pm
Models and Ensembles are consistent with a massive upper level ridge building next week. Brief relief, then a Death Ridge builds over Texas by May 19.
This weekend will be hot...then it's going to get worse. Any precip. is progged as mostly going to be north of the area. CLL might get lucky Thursday and late next week.
I will go with the consensus for next week, but beyond that all bets are off on what will happen. May has a tendency to pull weird tricks with rain. Sometimes it's bone dry all month, but that is not super common. Only 4 years since 2000 recorded less than one inch of rain at IAH for the month of May: 2003, 2009, 2011, and 2012.
I was wrong.
It's going to be WORSE than I thought yesterday after tomorrow's chance of rain. For at least a week after that...no relief from searing heat on GFS or GEPS Ensemble through the 20th. We all may be heading down to Jason's pool!
DoctorMu wrote: ↑Tue May 03, 2022 2:06 pm
Models and Ensembles are consistent with a massive upper level ridge building next week. Brief relief, then a Death Ridge builds over Texas by May 19.
This weekend will be hot...then it's going to get worse. Any precip. is progged as mostly going to be north of the area. CLL might get lucky Thursday and late next week.
I will go with the consensus for next week, but beyond that all bets are off on what will happen. May has a tendency to pull weird tricks with rain. Sometimes it's bone dry all month, but that is not super common. Only 4 years since 2000 recorded less than one inch of rain at IAH for the month of May: 2003, 2009, 2011, and 2012.
I was wrong.
It's going to be WORSE than I thought yesterday after tomorrow's chance of rain. For at least a week after that...no relief from searing heat on GFS or GEPS Ensemble through the 20th. We all may be heading down to Jason's pool!
I highly doubt it's going to stay around 100 degrees for that long. If it does, we are in serious trouble. However, sometimes early heat waves like this are not always the bearer of bad news for summer weather. It will certainly heat up the Gulf, which may start up seabreeze showers sooner once the ridge shifts away.
I knew (and posted) awhile back it was gonna flip and flip fast. It happened a little later than I expected, because we’ve been running a month behind for so long all spring and then bam - it’s summer. Not surprised.
We may need to look out for an early season spin up in the Gulf. Yes, I posted that here before S2K. Just for my local peeps.
Get ready. We need to be ready and prepared for this season.
Yep. Hope y'all enjoyed the two weeks of Spring!
We actually had a long, cool spring this year.
Really? Last years spring was way longer weather wise. I guess if you count that we didnt get too much of a winter and combine late "winter" and the 2 weeks of spring lol.
I knew (and posted) awhile back it was gonna flip and flip fast. It happened a little later than I expected, because we’ve been running a month behind for so long all spring and then bam - it’s summer. Not surprised.
We may need to look out for an early season spin up in the Gulf. Yes, I posted that here before S2K. Just for my local peeps.
Get ready. We need to be ready and prepared for this season.
Yep. Hope y'all enjoyed the two weeks of Spring!
We actually had a long, cool spring this year.
We had a long Spring last year. It didn't get into the 90s much until mid June. Lots of rain and a cool May. We even had FROPA though July!
I will go with the consensus for next week, but beyond that all bets are off on what will happen. May has a tendency to pull weird tricks with rain. Sometimes it's bone dry all month, but that is not super common. Only 4 years since 2000 recorded less than one inch of rain at IAH for the month of May: 2003, 2009, 2011, and 2012.
I was wrong.
It's going to be WORSE than I thought yesterday after tomorrow's chance of rain. For at least a week after that...no relief from searing heat on GFS or GEPS Ensemble through the 20th. We all may be heading down to Jason's pool!
I highly doubt it's going to stay around 100 degrees for that long. If it does, we are in serious trouble. However, sometimes early heat waves like this are not always the bearer of bad news for summer weather. It will certainly heat up the Gulf, which may start up seabreeze showers sooner once the ridge shifts away.
Toward Houston, yes. But we're going to be in the upper 90s in CLL for awhile. The seabreeze usually doesn't make it past Navasota...especially not with a ridge overhead.
Hopefully, you're right...but this pattern triggers too much of 2010-2012. I'm going to start my summer tree program this week just in case...
