I think the coastal regions are hurting the most so hopefully we get the most this time. The HRRR shows some areas getting 2-3 inches possibly. That sure would be nice.
May 2022
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captainbarbossa19
- Posts: 401
- Joined: Mon Jun 28, 2021 2:50 pm
- Location: Starkville, MS
- Contact:
RGEM and FV3 look pretty good as well. 1-2.5 inches in CLL look that the consensus. I'd take it!
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tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 4472
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
000
FXUS64 KHGX 051120
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
620 AM CDT Thu May 5 2022
.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...
MVFR conditions will continue to prevail through the mid-
morning hours before lifting. Gusty winds have gotten a headstart
this morning as we`ve already seen gusts over 20 knots at numerous area
terminals. Expect sustained winds around 13-18 knots and gusts up
to 20-25 knots to prevail through sunset. The big story for today
will be a line of strong to severe thunderstorms that will move
through Southeast Texas beginning this afternoon and into tonight.
Timing begins for CLL/UTS around 21Z, IAH/HOU around 00Z/01Z, and
GLS/LBX around 02Z. Ceilings will likely drop to at least MVFR
underneath the showers/thunderstorms. As the rain comes to an end,
MVFR ceilings will remain in place through the overnight hours
along with a downward trend in winds. Northern sites may see a
northerly wind shift ahead of winds becoming light and variable.
Short range models indicate the potential of patchy fog for
CLL/UTS/CXO after 08Z/09Z tonight.
Batiste
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 336 AM CDT Thu May 5 2022/...
.SHORT TERM [Through Friday Night]...
Let`s draft up a quick little weather taco in honor of Cinco de
Mayo! Let`s throw in some green, yellow, orange, and top it off with
some red...but instead of guacamole (that costs extra anyway),
cheese, and pico de gallo/salsa, we`re looking at HREF simulated
radar ensemble members of a line of strong to severe storms that
will push through Southeast Texas later this afternoon/evening.
Before we delve into the details on that, lettuce taco `bout what`s
occuring beforehand. An upper-level low will continue to push
eastward across the Central Plains today and will act as the main
driving force for a cold front attempting to push through the area.
I thought there would be better FROPA consensus by tonight, and
there kind of is...but there also kind of isn`t. There`s still a bit
of spread on how far south the front progresses with some models
pushing it offshore, some stalling it along the coast, and a few
stalling it inland. This will have an impact on tonight`s
temperatures, but the most important impact for the short term
period is the MCS that will develop initially along the frontal
boundary and get sent out ahead of it.
The latest from SPC is an enhanced risk of severe weather north of a
College Station-Huntsville-Livingston line and a slight risk north
of a Hempstead-Spring-Liberty line and a marginal risk elsewhere.
The environment is fairly conducive to strong to severe
thunderstorms with MUCAPE generally ranging from 2000-2500 J/kg,
ample moisture with dew points in the 68-73 degree range, bulk shear
of 45-55 knots parallel to the frontal boundary, and a 30-40 knot
LLJ. This afternoon, a couple of the hi-res models indicate that we
could see some convection developing in the Brazos Valley/Piney
Woods area around lunchtime ahead of the MCS. If this occurs, we
could work over the environment which could limit the intensity of
the storms in this area. Timing of the MCS is still on track with
mid-afternoon in the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods area, evening for
the Houston metro area, and after sunset for coastal areas. The
main hazard will be strong winds and heavy rain (PW values surging
to 1.8"-2.0"), but hail and isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled
out.
Although we`ll have rain moving through Southeast Texas today, with
southwesterly flow aloft we`ll still manage to reach the upper
80s/low 90s for high temperatures. Let`s recall the end of the first
paragraph where I mentioned that where the front stalls has a big
impact on tonight`s temperatures. That`ll be attributed to who gets
the drier air behind the front. With most of the hi-res models
pushing the front at least to the coast, I trended a bit cooler for
locations north of Harris County with lows ranging from the low to
mid 60s as skies gradually become partly cloudy overnight. PW values
in this area generally drop to 0.7"-0.8", which is around the 10th
percentile (0.73") for this time of the year. Along and south of I-
10, low temperatures will still range from the low to mid 70s. If
there is greater consensus on the front pushing offshore with later
model runs, then those low temperatures in the 60s could be pushed
further south.
With the drier air sticking around into Friday and since dry air
heats pretty efficiently, we`ll see quite the bump in high
temperatures. Highs on Friday reach the low to mid 90s thanks to the
dry air and mostly clear skies by the afternoon hours. Onshore flow
returns late Friday as surface high pressure transitions eastward
leading to a return to the warm and muggy nights. Temperatures will
be back into the low to mid 70s across majority of Southeast Texas
for Friday night. An upper-level ridge begins to build in on Friday
night as well, so expect the hot temperatures to stick around
through the weekend.
Batiste
&&
.LONG TERM [Saturday Through Thursday]...
Saturday through Monday are still looking to be hot days across the
area with inland high temperatures mostly in the mid to upper 90s.
Not much cooling will take place during the overnight hours as lows
should only fall into the low to mid 70s. Some temperatures records
have a chance of being tied or broken (both daytime highs and overnight
lows). With heat index values expected to peak in a 99 to 105 range,
all heat safety precautions are going to need to be taken if spending
any significant times outdoors.
For the rest of the forecast period, it will be slightly cooler for
much of the Tuesday through Thursday time period with highs only in
the low to mid 90s as winds come back a little bit more to the southeast.
This will drop heat index values closer to a 95 to 100 range. Heat safety
precautions are still going to be needed to be taken even though these
readings (temperatures and heat index values) will be a little lower.
No rain is in the forecast.
42
&&
.MARINE...
A mainly moderate onshore flow and elevated seas will persist through
tonight. Showers and thunderstorms may approach the area late this evening
and on into the overnight hours with possible strong and gusty winds.
Mariners are urged to closely monitor the evolution of the storms as
the day progresses. Onshore winds return at the end of the week and
strengthen over the weekend and on into the start of next week. Expect
an upward trend in seas too. Caution or advisory flags will likely
be needed.
42
&&
.CLIMATE...
Galveston set another record high minimum temperature yesterday when
the low only got down to 79 degrees (the old May 4th record was 78 degrees
set in 2002). This is the fifth consecutive day (4/30 thru 5/4) that
a new record high minimum temperature record has been established.
42
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 87 66 91 71 96 / 80 80 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 88 71 94 73 96 / 40 80 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 84 76 86 76 88 / 10 70 10 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 4 PM CDT this
afternoon for the following zones: Galveston
Bay...Matagorda Bay.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION through late tonight for the
following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda
Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island
to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to
Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from
High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.
&&
$$
FXUS64 KHGX 051120
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
620 AM CDT Thu May 5 2022
.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...
MVFR conditions will continue to prevail through the mid-
morning hours before lifting. Gusty winds have gotten a headstart
this morning as we`ve already seen gusts over 20 knots at numerous area
terminals. Expect sustained winds around 13-18 knots and gusts up
to 20-25 knots to prevail through sunset. The big story for today
will be a line of strong to severe thunderstorms that will move
through Southeast Texas beginning this afternoon and into tonight.
Timing begins for CLL/UTS around 21Z, IAH/HOU around 00Z/01Z, and
GLS/LBX around 02Z. Ceilings will likely drop to at least MVFR
underneath the showers/thunderstorms. As the rain comes to an end,
MVFR ceilings will remain in place through the overnight hours
along with a downward trend in winds. Northern sites may see a
northerly wind shift ahead of winds becoming light and variable.
Short range models indicate the potential of patchy fog for
CLL/UTS/CXO after 08Z/09Z tonight.
Batiste
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 336 AM CDT Thu May 5 2022/...
.SHORT TERM [Through Friday Night]...
Let`s draft up a quick little weather taco in honor of Cinco de
Mayo! Let`s throw in some green, yellow, orange, and top it off with
some red...but instead of guacamole (that costs extra anyway),
cheese, and pico de gallo/salsa, we`re looking at HREF simulated
radar ensemble members of a line of strong to severe storms that
will push through Southeast Texas later this afternoon/evening.
Before we delve into the details on that, lettuce taco `bout what`s
occuring beforehand. An upper-level low will continue to push
eastward across the Central Plains today and will act as the main
driving force for a cold front attempting to push through the area.
I thought there would be better FROPA consensus by tonight, and
there kind of is...but there also kind of isn`t. There`s still a bit
of spread on how far south the front progresses with some models
pushing it offshore, some stalling it along the coast, and a few
stalling it inland. This will have an impact on tonight`s
temperatures, but the most important impact for the short term
period is the MCS that will develop initially along the frontal
boundary and get sent out ahead of it.
The latest from SPC is an enhanced risk of severe weather north of a
College Station-Huntsville-Livingston line and a slight risk north
of a Hempstead-Spring-Liberty line and a marginal risk elsewhere.
The environment is fairly conducive to strong to severe
thunderstorms with MUCAPE generally ranging from 2000-2500 J/kg,
ample moisture with dew points in the 68-73 degree range, bulk shear
of 45-55 knots parallel to the frontal boundary, and a 30-40 knot
LLJ. This afternoon, a couple of the hi-res models indicate that we
could see some convection developing in the Brazos Valley/Piney
Woods area around lunchtime ahead of the MCS. If this occurs, we
could work over the environment which could limit the intensity of
the storms in this area. Timing of the MCS is still on track with
mid-afternoon in the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods area, evening for
the Houston metro area, and after sunset for coastal areas. The
main hazard will be strong winds and heavy rain (PW values surging
to 1.8"-2.0"), but hail and isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled
out.
Although we`ll have rain moving through Southeast Texas today, with
southwesterly flow aloft we`ll still manage to reach the upper
80s/low 90s for high temperatures. Let`s recall the end of the first
paragraph where I mentioned that where the front stalls has a big
impact on tonight`s temperatures. That`ll be attributed to who gets
the drier air behind the front. With most of the hi-res models
pushing the front at least to the coast, I trended a bit cooler for
locations north of Harris County with lows ranging from the low to
mid 60s as skies gradually become partly cloudy overnight. PW values
in this area generally drop to 0.7"-0.8", which is around the 10th
percentile (0.73") for this time of the year. Along and south of I-
10, low temperatures will still range from the low to mid 70s. If
there is greater consensus on the front pushing offshore with later
model runs, then those low temperatures in the 60s could be pushed
further south.
With the drier air sticking around into Friday and since dry air
heats pretty efficiently, we`ll see quite the bump in high
temperatures. Highs on Friday reach the low to mid 90s thanks to the
dry air and mostly clear skies by the afternoon hours. Onshore flow
returns late Friday as surface high pressure transitions eastward
leading to a return to the warm and muggy nights. Temperatures will
be back into the low to mid 70s across majority of Southeast Texas
for Friday night. An upper-level ridge begins to build in on Friday
night as well, so expect the hot temperatures to stick around
through the weekend.
Batiste
&&
.LONG TERM [Saturday Through Thursday]...
Saturday through Monday are still looking to be hot days across the
area with inland high temperatures mostly in the mid to upper 90s.
Not much cooling will take place during the overnight hours as lows
should only fall into the low to mid 70s. Some temperatures records
have a chance of being tied or broken (both daytime highs and overnight
lows). With heat index values expected to peak in a 99 to 105 range,
all heat safety precautions are going to need to be taken if spending
any significant times outdoors.
For the rest of the forecast period, it will be slightly cooler for
much of the Tuesday through Thursday time period with highs only in
the low to mid 90s as winds come back a little bit more to the southeast.
This will drop heat index values closer to a 95 to 100 range. Heat safety
precautions are still going to be needed to be taken even though these
readings (temperatures and heat index values) will be a little lower.
No rain is in the forecast.
42
&&
.MARINE...
A mainly moderate onshore flow and elevated seas will persist through
tonight. Showers and thunderstorms may approach the area late this evening
and on into the overnight hours with possible strong and gusty winds.
Mariners are urged to closely monitor the evolution of the storms as
the day progresses. Onshore winds return at the end of the week and
strengthen over the weekend and on into the start of next week. Expect
an upward trend in seas too. Caution or advisory flags will likely
be needed.
42
&&
.CLIMATE...
Galveston set another record high minimum temperature yesterday when
the low only got down to 79 degrees (the old May 4th record was 78 degrees
set in 2002). This is the fifth consecutive day (4/30 thru 5/4) that
a new record high minimum temperature record has been established.
42
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 87 66 91 71 96 / 80 80 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 88 71 94 73 96 / 40 80 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 84 76 86 76 88 / 10 70 10 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 4 PM CDT this
afternoon for the following zones: Galveston
Bay...Matagorda Bay.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION through late tonight for the
following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda
Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island
to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to
Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from
High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.
&&
$$
The MCS for this afternoon/evening is starting to develop now in central Texas.
It's hot pea soup with a ton of wind. Someone is going to see some action today.
Tornado watch posted for our northern counties
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 181
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1010 AM CDT Thu May 5 2022
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Southwest Arkansas
Northwest Louisiana
Northeast into central Texas
* Effective this Thursday morning and evening from 1010 AM until
600 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
A couple tornadoes possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to develop
this morning through the afternoon and move east across the watch
area. Damaging gusts and a few tornadoes are possible, in addition
to large hail with any robust supercells.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 90 statute miles
east and west of a line from 45 miles northwest of El Dorado AR to
10 miles south southwest of Austin TX. For a complete depiction of
the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU1).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
That line forming near Waco has some punch. We'll see what daytime heating does to it.
HRRR seems to be trending down in terms of intensity and coverage for the metro area. 15Z run just barely scrapes the western half of Harris county.
-
captainbarbossa19
- Posts: 401
- Joined: Mon Jun 28, 2021 2:50 pm
- Location: Starkville, MS
- Contact:
Rain chances dropping on weather app. Down to 50% now.
I agree with this approach. The HRRR can change a lot from run to run on occasion. I’ve noticed it does better sometimes from 24 hours out vs 8 hours out. The HRRR is just a tool in the model world. You have to be able to know how to use it. Overall it’s a pretty good mesoscale model.captainbarbossa19 wrote: ↑Thu May 05, 2022 12:28 pmI'm ignoring it. At this point, you pretty much have to nowcast.
-
captainbarbossa19
- Posts: 401
- Joined: Mon Jun 28, 2021 2:50 pm
- Location: Starkville, MS
- Contact:
Right and the SPC is mentioning right now the possibility of more watches further south. This shows that they must think that conditions are favorable for storms.Cpv17 wrote: ↑Thu May 05, 2022 1:16 pmI agree with this approach. The HRRR can change a lot from run to run on occasion. I’ve noticed it does better sometimes from 24 hours out vs 8 hours out. The HRRR is just a tool in the model world. You have to be able to know how to use it. Overall it’s a pretty good mesoscale model.captainbarbossa19 wrote: ↑Thu May 05, 2022 12:28 pmI'm ignoring it. At this point, you pretty much have to nowcast.
Mesoscale Discussion 0659
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 PM CDT Thu May 05 2022
Areas affected...Parts of central Texas into the Ark-La-Tex
Concerning...Tornado Watch 181...
Valid 051757Z - 051900Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 181 continues.
SUMMARY...An evolving convective system may further organize,
accompanied by potential for increasingly widespread strong wind
gusts and perhaps occasional brief tornadoes through 2-4 PM CDT.
Trends are being monitored for additional watches downstream.
DISCUSSION...A pre-cold frontal confluence zone around the 850 mb
level has remained the focus for vigorous thunderstorm development
across and northeast of the I-35 corridor of central Texas.
Increasingly divergent upper flow has supported considerable
expansion of cloud tops and precipitation during the past couple of
hours, northeast of the Waco vicinity toward the Ark-La-Tex, where a
surface cold pool appears to be gradually consolidating.
Recent trends in radar imagery suggest that a lower/mid tropospheric
mesoscale convective vortex may be in the process of forming to the
northwest of Tyler. As this continues, strengthening rear inflow is
likely to develop to its southwest and south, contributing to a
gradual eastward and southeastward acceleration of the strengthening
surface cold pool. Locally strong to severe gusts are already
occurring with stronger embedded cells (as evidenced by the gust to
54 kt at Waco TX), and it appears that potentially damaging wind
gusts may become more widespread across northeastern Texas into the
Ark-La-Tex vicinity through 19-21Z.
Given the strengthening cold pool, moderately strong low-level shear
and deep moist boundary layer (including lower 70s F dew points),
the evolution of transient mesovortices along its leading edge
appears possible, accompanied by locally stronger gusts and perhaps
occasionally intensifying with brief tornadoes possible.
Up to 89 degrees here…
-
captainbarbossa19
- Posts: 401
- Joined: Mon Jun 28, 2021 2:50 pm
- Location: Starkville, MS
- Contact:
Well some good news as far as the heat wave for next week. It looks like the ridge will start to back off to our west by next weekend looking at the GFS and Euro. At least that means closer to average temperatures for mid-May.
-
Kingwood36
- Posts: 1592
- Joined: Sat Dec 29, 2018 10:29 am
- Location: Freeport
- Contact:
When is the next cold front? I already hate this heat
Late September/early October.
-
captainbarbossa19
- Posts: 401
- Joined: Mon Jun 28, 2021 2:50 pm
- Location: Starkville, MS
- Contact:
Looks like the line is turning severe now. There is lots of instability and moisture to feed it.
Fingers crossed. It's going to be a bad week ahead.captainbarbossa19 wrote: ↑Thu May 05, 2022 3:03 pm Well some good news as far as the heat wave for next week. It looks like the ridge will start to back off to our west by next weekend looking at the GFS and Euro. At least that means closer to average temperatures for mid-May.
Fortunately, we're getting some rain now. I don't see a lot of shear in the atmosphere, and hope we can escape any hail or tornadic activity. I'm not sure the MCS makes it past NW Harris county with heavy rain though.
-
Stratton20
- Posts: 4248
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
We got some light/moderate rain in my area, but this line was a bust IMO