May 2022

[DoctorMu]

GFS sniffing out its first fantasy tropical system in the eastern Gulf around May 24-25.

[Stratton20]

DoctorMu Cat 1 hurricane into the florida. panhandle on that run, gotta love the GFS long range

[Iceresistance]

Daily SOI is at 40 again.

[Iceresistance]

GFS sniffing out its first fantasy tropical system in the eastern Gulf around May 24-25.

There's an extremely powerful CCKW that is coming this way, Doc V has some good tweets on the CCKW.

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1 ... 1548620800

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1 ... 6847651840

[tireman4]

XUS64 KHGX 110847
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
347 AM CDT Wed May 11 2022

.SHORT TERM [Through Thursday Night]...

Have some cloud debris passing overhead from earlier storms in west
Tx. These, and some sct/bkn stratus underneath, should scatter out
this morning. Otherwise...same old story. Mid level ridging keeps
dry conditions and above normal temps in place. 47

.LONG TERM [Friday Through Wednesday]...

"Rinse and repeat" continues to be the story as little change to
the synoptic pattern is anticipated surging the extended period.
Unseasonably warm and humid conditions with little to no
precipitation remain in the forecast through at least the early
part of next week as mid/upper ridging continues to remain solidly
in place over the Central CONUS. Surface high pressure will drift
back into the Central Gulf by Friday, allowing for a more
persistent onshore wind to redevelop. This will aid in moisture
transport, as total PWs surge back to around 1.5 in by the
overnight hours. That being said, global models indicate the best
moisture availability to our east as a series of midlevel
shortwaves move through the area on Saturday and Sunday. As a
result, PoP values remain fairly marginal across the area with
20-30% values still in the forecast to the east of the I-45
corridor. A few isolated showers and storms will be possible, but
a (likely much welcomed) widespread precipitation event is not
expected.

The main headline otherwise continues to be persistent
unseasonable heat with highs reaching around 7-10 degrees above
normal values for mid-May each day. In general, highs near the
coast will reach the upper 80s to near 90 while inland regions
reach the mid/upper 90s. Enhanced upper ridging heading into next
week will push temperatures to near 100 across the Brazos Valley
while values remain in the upper 90s across the Greater Houston
area. As we`ve been messaging lately, heat safety actions continue
to remain vital. Continue to remain hydrated, avoid strenuous
outdoor activity during the hottest parts of the day, and wear
always look before you lock! Early season heat events such as this
one pose the additional risk of impacting us before we`ve become
more acclimated to the summer heat, so taking proper precautions
remains very important.

Cady

&&

.AVIATION [06Z TAF Update]...

Intermittent bkn MVFR cigs should scatter/lift into VFR territory by
mid morning. S/SE winds will increase in the mid morning hours as
well, but speeds should be a touch lower than yesterday. Rinse &
repeat tonight. With lighter winds in place, SREF is hinting at the
possibility of some patchy fog north of the I-10 corridor in the 9-
13z timeframe. 47

&&

.MARINE...

Winds have weakened below caution thresholds this evening, and
will continue to diminish during the day today as a surface high
approaches from the east. By Friday, winds and seas begin to
increase once again as the surface high drifts back towards the
Central Gulf. Winds may approach caution thresholds during the
weekend, but should remain below caution levels through the end of
the weekend. Some isolated showers and storms may be possible on
Saturday as a disturbance approaches the area.

Cady

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 93 70 94 68 95 / 0 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 91 70 93 70 95 / 0 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 87 78 86 78 88 / 0 0 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...47
LONG TERM...Cady
AVIATION...47
MARINE...Cady

[Stratton20]

The GEFS is continuing to hint at some early season development around the 20th-22nd timeframe, far out but their is a signal, looks like the western caribbean could be a place to watch, likely will be weak and most likely wont pose a threat to the GOM. That is “IF” something even develops at all

[DoctorMu]

GFS sniffing out its first fantasy tropical system in the eastern Gulf around May 24-25.

There's an extremely powerful CCKW that is coming this way, Doc V has some good tweets on the CCKW.

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1 ... 1548620800

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1 ... 6847651840

Ruh roh. Open season for TCs?

[DoctorMu]

It *May* be time for that trip to Minnesota.

"unseasonable heat with highs reaching around 7-10 degrees above
normal values for mid-May each day. In general, highs near the
coast will reach the upper 80s to near 90 while inland regions
reach the mid/upper 90s. Enhanced upper ridging heading into next
week will push temperatures to near 100 across the Brazos Valley"

Also, cranking up the fire on the GoM 'cane incubator.

[Cpv17]

The latest CPC forecast is offering some hope for rain around the 20th through 24th.

[Stratton20]

Thankfully we are still in early may, other wise this would spell trouble if it was august or september thats a lot of upward rising motion on the GFS

[Iceresistance]

Thankfully we are still in early may, other wise this would spell trouble if it was august or september thats a lot of upward rising motion on the GFS

Even May is not safe from Tropical Cyclones! The GFS is going nuts with the strongest run yet!

[cperk]

The 18z GFS has a cat 2 972mb hurricane in the south central gom on 5/27.

[Stratton20]

Iceresistance thats a pretty crazy fantasy run haha, though by hour 216 is when it starts to develop, their is some ensemble support, we will “sea”

[Stratton20]

Speaking of which, for the Pro mets and mods on here, could we create a seperate group for posting “fantasy runs” just for entertainment? I feel like that would be better so that it doesn’t create a mess in this group chat for May

[Cpv17]

Speaking of which, for the Pro mets and mods on here, could we create a seperate group for posting “fantasy runs” just for entertainment? I feel like that would be better so that it doesn’t create a mess in this group chat for May

They have that on Storm2k so I don’t see why not.

[Iceresistance]

Speaking of which, for the Pro mets and mods on here, could we create a seperate group for posting “fantasy runs” just for entertainment? I feel like that would be better so that it doesn’t create a mess in this group chat for May

They have that on Storm2k so I don’t see why not.

I believe that there is already a 'Long range discussion' here, but I'll start a new one anyways since it was forgotten.

[jasons2k]

Speaking of which, for the Pro mets and mods on here, could we create a seperate group for posting “fantasy runs” just for entertainment? I feel like that would be better so that it doesn’t create a mess in this group chat for May

They have that on Storm2k so I don’t see why not.

Or, y'all could just go there during the tropics. Don't need to re-invent the wheel.

I'll be camping out over there a lot more until hurricane season is over. It's time for me to shift focus to my specialty. I've been intensely learning about tropical cyclones since Diana of 1984.

It's hard to believe all these forums started with two main ones - the PBI/Lowe's Board that later became S2K and The Weather Channel Board that morphed into..well..a lot of things....haha. The old timers know.

Special shout out to our WxInfinity members who are also involved on S2K. That said, we don't compete with each other (we don't make money, folks) we support and complement one another to deliver timely and accurate weather information to our members.

Anyone in the Houston area should prepare for a busy hurricane season now. Looks like a very busy season ahead!!

[jasons2k]

Doesn’t look any rain for a long time….get ready…

[tireman4]

00
FXUS64 KHGX 121338
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
838 AM CDT Thu May 12 2022

.SHORT TERM [Through Friday Night]...
Quick update, fog dissipating rapidly and slightly drier air
expected this afternoon. Skies also clearing quickly but still
enough moisture for some fair weather CU to develop shortly.

45

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 403 AM CDT Thu May 12 2022/...



.LONG TERM [Saturday Through Thursday]...

At this point, the extended forecast feels almost like a broken
record as the recent trend of unseasonably warm weather with
little to no rainfall looks to continue through the weekend and
well into next week. During this time, daily high temperatures
will continue to run about 7-10 degrees above seasonal normals for
mid-May, and additional daily high max/high min temperature
records will likely be under threat.

Saturday brings us our only (albeit very limited) chance of
precipitation over the duration of the extended periods as upper
ridging slightly loses its grip over the Central CONUS with the
slow approach of an upper low from the east. A few embedded
mid/upper disturbances will pass to our northeast, with the bulk
of all resultant showers and storms falling outside of our area.
However, it`s still conceivable that locations east of I-45 see
some isolated activity and as a result have maintained current
slight chance PoPs in the forecast.

Heat quickly becomes the main story again as upper ridging
strengthens heading into the beginning of next week while the
eastward departure of surface high pressure over the Central Gulf
will promote a steadier onshore flow. Highs throughout the next
week will reach the mid to upper 90s inland and near 90 along the
coast, which combined with increasing surface dewpoints should
produce heat index values in the 100s and afternoon WBGT values of
up to 85. Head safety precautions will continue to be critical for
the foreseeable future, particularly with this being an early
season heat event with limited seasonal heat acclimation amongst
the population as a result. Continue to stay hydrated and avoid
strenuous outdoor activity during the hottest part of the day if
possible.

Cady


.AVIATION [12Z TAF Update]...

A mix of IFR TO VFR conditions to start out the day with some patchy
fog and stratus around the area. This should mix out fairly quickly
after sunrise and msunny/mclr skies and VFR conditions prevailing
from mid morning into the overnight hours. Similar set up tonight
with some patchy fog developing late. 47


.MARINE...

Light onshore winds will continue to prevail during the day
today as surface high pressure continues to shift westward. These
light winds will gradually increase heading into the weekend as
the surface high slowly shifts back towards the Central Gulf. Wind
speeds may approach caution criteria, but are unlikely to exceed
it for a significant amount of time until late next week. Seas
will remain around 2-4 feet trough the middle of next week.

Cady

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 94 69 94 70 95 / 0 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 93 70 94 71 95 / 0 0 0 0 10
Galveston (GLS) 87 77 89 76 88 / 0 0 0 0 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...45

[Cpv17]

Doesn’t look any rain for a long time….get ready…

Like I’ve been saying for the past month, the only way I can see us get any rain would be from the tropics. At least you’ve gotten a couple inches over the past few weeks.