May 2022

[DoctorMu]

GFS 06z is seeing a significant frontal passage next Sunday. Potential for cooler (normal) weather and some rain.

[DoctorMu]

The dewpoint is back up, unfortunately. I enjoyed the DP in the 60s and lower than predicted temps for awhile. Sure hop e that front arrivves, but we decided to head to Minnesota instead.

[Cromagnum]

April showers bring May flowers is now
April drought brings hotter May drought.

[davidiowx]

Pretty cool Lunar Eclipse tonight

[DoctorMu]

Cold front for Saturday night and Sunday solidified across models and forecasts. Will cool temps into the mid to upper 80s. 20-30% chance of showers. Maybe some seabreeze with the return flow next week? We'll see.

[djmike]

QPF 7 day is looking better fwiw.

[DoctorMu]

QPF 7 day is looking better fwiw.

Next week, midweek is looking better, mostly on GFS. Euro is easing up, but not much. Ensembles have most of the rain east of I-45.

[jasons2k]

Front this weekend may bring some relief…

[Stratton20]

The good news is with that potential front, any tropical mischief that occurs in the southern caribbean that tries to get into the gulf will get deflected off to the Northeast

[Stormlover2020]

I wouldn’t buy that it’s not a October pattern, ridge been pretty strong as of late and Euro shows that

[DoctorMu]

Front this weekend may bring some relief…

Yep. It hasn't gone away. Highs in the 80s. Naturally, we'll be up in Minnesota.

[DoctorMu]

Nice Ensemble QPF

[jasons2k]

Update from Jeff:

Mid and upper level ridge of high pressure will continue to be parked over Texas into late this week with continued very warm/near record temperatures.

Upper and mid level ridge axis that has been over Texas for the last 8-12 days will remain in place into late week before starting to flatten some with the approach of a trough across the central portion of the nation. Stalled omega block upper air pattern of late is breaking down and this will help transition toward a more progressive storm track across the nation. Given the trough moving into the central portion of the nation late this week, a weak cool front will slide southward into Texas by this weekend. With mid level heights decreasing, capping in the mid levels will subside some and a period of active weather is possible by this weekend over SE TX.

Southeasterly winds will begin to increase by Thursday and Friday and moisture levels will finally start to increase after several days of “relatively dry conditions” over the region. Surface frontal boundary and outflow boundaries from storms likely to develop over central and north Texas on Friday will approach our area Friday night and showers and thunderstorms will be possible north of I-10 during the evening hours. Frontal boundary looks likely to move into the region and potentially stall over the area Saturday and Saturday night into Sunday with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. Will need to see how far south the front actually makes it this weekend, but current models indicate at least into portions of SE TX and with the weakening of the ridge axis aloft conditions either from the front or the seabreeze should be favorable for showers and thunderstorms.

While not currently suggested in any of the models, slow moving or stalled boundaries this time of year within a moist air mass should always raise the heavy rainfall flags with the potential for slow moving or training convection. This will be something to watch over the next few days to see if models become more aggressive with rainfall amounts.

Tropics:
There has been a bunch of social media posts recently showing a tropical system on the GFS model in the western Caribbean Sea and/or Gulf of Mexico for next week. The GFS is notorious for showing development this time of year in this region as tropical waves/moisture interact with a developing central American gyre. Most models do show a large area of unsettled weather extending from the western Caribbean Sea into the Bay of Campeche from this weekend into next week. If and when any sort of defined surface circulation may develop and where remains highly uncertain due to land interaction with central America and the large sprawling nature of the central American gyre. If anything were to actually develop it would be slow.

[captainbarbossa19]

This weekend is looking pretty good on both the Euro and GFS. It is important not to focus on location, but more the amounts taking place. The Euro is showing 1-2 inches in places. The GFS is showing about the same, but even more widespread. Hopefully the GFS is correct. I feel like this system may be one of those that could overperform given the setup, much like what Jeff says above. This would be really good given that we are almost in June. Going into summer with limited or no drought is almost always good in terms of summer temperatures and rain.

[DoctorMu]

This weekend is looking pretty good on both the Euro and GFS. It is important not to focus on location, but more the amounts taking place. The Euro is showing 1-2 inches in places. The GFS is showing about the same, but even more widespread. Hopefully the GFS is correct. I feel like this system may be one of those that could overperform given the setup, much like what Jeff says above. This would be really good given that we are almost in June. Going into summer with limited or no drought is almost always good in terms of summer temperatures and rain.

It looks like a more normal weather pattern after Friday. I almost hate to miss a late cold front in TX! It could be our last. Saturday and Sunday look cool in MN.

[jasons2k]

NWS has raised rain chances to 50% this weekend and again next week. Chances that high this far out usually mean rain is coming.

[don]

I'm starting to feel more confident that a pattern change is coming. Looks like we may see multiple chances of thunderstorms starting this weekend and continuing through the next week. Severe weather may be on the menu also...

[Cpv17]

The Euro, GFS, and CMC are all in agreement that we will be entering a wetter pattern.

[cperk]

I’m happy to hear positive talk about our upcoming rain chances my weather station records my rain amounts daily and monthly.I got 1 7/8 inches of rain in April and only .49 of an inch so far in May my water bill is gonna be ugly.

[Stratton20]

Entering a wetter pattern? Man I havent been more happy to hear those words