Yep. It hasn't gone away. Highs in the 80s. Naturally, we'll be up in Minnesota.
May 2022
Nice Ensemble QPF
Update from Jeff:
Mid and upper level ridge of high pressure will continue to be parked over Texas into late this week with continued very warm/near record temperatures.
Upper and mid level ridge axis that has been over Texas for the last 8-12 days will remain in place into late week before starting to flatten some with the approach of a trough across the central portion of the nation. Stalled omega block upper air pattern of late is breaking down and this will help transition toward a more progressive storm track across the nation. Given the trough moving into the central portion of the nation late this week, a weak cool front will slide southward into Texas by this weekend. With mid level heights decreasing, capping in the mid levels will subside some and a period of active weather is possible by this weekend over SE TX.
Southeasterly winds will begin to increase by Thursday and Friday and moisture levels will finally start to increase after several days of “relatively dry conditions” over the region. Surface frontal boundary and outflow boundaries from storms likely to develop over central and north Texas on Friday will approach our area Friday night and showers and thunderstorms will be possible north of I-10 during the evening hours. Frontal boundary looks likely to move into the region and potentially stall over the area Saturday and Saturday night into Sunday with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. Will need to see how far south the front actually makes it this weekend, but current models indicate at least into portions of SE TX and with the weakening of the ridge axis aloft conditions either from the front or the seabreeze should be favorable for showers and thunderstorms.
While not currently suggested in any of the models, slow moving or stalled boundaries this time of year within a moist air mass should always raise the heavy rainfall flags with the potential for slow moving or training convection. This will be something to watch over the next few days to see if models become more aggressive with rainfall amounts.
Tropics:
There has been a bunch of social media posts recently showing a tropical system on the GFS model in the western Caribbean Sea and/or Gulf of Mexico for next week. The GFS is notorious for showing development this time of year in this region as tropical waves/moisture interact with a developing central American gyre. Most models do show a large area of unsettled weather extending from the western Caribbean Sea into the Bay of Campeche from this weekend into next week. If and when any sort of defined surface circulation may develop and where remains highly uncertain due to land interaction with central America and the large sprawling nature of the central American gyre. If anything were to actually develop it would be slow.
Mid and upper level ridge of high pressure will continue to be parked over Texas into late this week with continued very warm/near record temperatures.
Upper and mid level ridge axis that has been over Texas for the last 8-12 days will remain in place into late week before starting to flatten some with the approach of a trough across the central portion of the nation. Stalled omega block upper air pattern of late is breaking down and this will help transition toward a more progressive storm track across the nation. Given the trough moving into the central portion of the nation late this week, a weak cool front will slide southward into Texas by this weekend. With mid level heights decreasing, capping in the mid levels will subside some and a period of active weather is possible by this weekend over SE TX.
Southeasterly winds will begin to increase by Thursday and Friday and moisture levels will finally start to increase after several days of “relatively dry conditions” over the region. Surface frontal boundary and outflow boundaries from storms likely to develop over central and north Texas on Friday will approach our area Friday night and showers and thunderstorms will be possible north of I-10 during the evening hours. Frontal boundary looks likely to move into the region and potentially stall over the area Saturday and Saturday night into Sunday with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. Will need to see how far south the front actually makes it this weekend, but current models indicate at least into portions of SE TX and with the weakening of the ridge axis aloft conditions either from the front or the seabreeze should be favorable for showers and thunderstorms.
While not currently suggested in any of the models, slow moving or stalled boundaries this time of year within a moist air mass should always raise the heavy rainfall flags with the potential for slow moving or training convection. This will be something to watch over the next few days to see if models become more aggressive with rainfall amounts.
Tropics:
There has been a bunch of social media posts recently showing a tropical system on the GFS model in the western Caribbean Sea and/or Gulf of Mexico for next week. The GFS is notorious for showing development this time of year in this region as tropical waves/moisture interact with a developing central American gyre. Most models do show a large area of unsettled weather extending from the western Caribbean Sea into the Bay of Campeche from this weekend into next week. If and when any sort of defined surface circulation may develop and where remains highly uncertain due to land interaction with central America and the large sprawling nature of the central American gyre. If anything were to actually develop it would be slow.
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captainbarbossa19
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This weekend is looking pretty good on both the Euro and GFS. It is important not to focus on location, but more the amounts taking place. The Euro is showing 1-2 inches in places. The GFS is showing about the same, but even more widespread. Hopefully the GFS is correct. I feel like this system may be one of those that could overperform given the setup, much like what Jeff says above. This would be really good given that we are almost in June. Going into summer with limited or no drought is almost always good in terms of summer temperatures and rain.
It looks like a more normal weather pattern after Friday. I almost hate to miss a late cold front in TX! It could be our last. Saturday and Sunday look cool in MN.captainbarbossa19 wrote: ↑Tue May 17, 2022 2:00 pm This weekend is looking pretty good on both the Euro and GFS. It is important not to focus on location, but more the amounts taking place. The Euro is showing 1-2 inches in places. The GFS is showing about the same, but even more widespread. Hopefully the GFS is correct. I feel like this system may be one of those that could overperform given the setup, much like what Jeff says above. This would be really good given that we are almost in June. Going into summer with limited or no drought is almost always good in terms of summer temperatures and rain.
NWS has raised rain chances to 50% this weekend and again next week. Chances that high this far out usually mean rain is coming.
I'm starting to feel more confident that a pattern change is coming. Looks like we may see multiple chances of thunderstorms starting this weekend and continuing through the next week. Severe weather may be on the menu also...
The Euro, GFS, and CMC are all in agreement that we will be entering a wetter pattern.
I’m happy to hear positive talk about our upcoming rain chances my weather station records my rain amounts daily and monthly.I got 1 7/8 inches of rain in April and only .49 of an inch so far in May my water bill is gonna be ugly.
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Stratton20
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Entering a wetter pattern? Man I havent been more happy to hear those words
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captainbarbossa19
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If you enter a wetter pattern this time of year, it could not be at a better time. Last year the same thing happened and most of the summer featured average to above-average rainfall. Temperatures were about average to below-average too.
This Euro run coming up here is going to be interesting.
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captainbarbossa19
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Stratton20
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12z GFS showing some pretty big totals over the next 10 days
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Looking good!
The trend is your friend.
98°F here this afternoon, but at least the DP fell off some.
It looks like we'll be able to experience this weekend's FROPA and a few days in the 80s. Our son tested positive for COVID but he's had full vax + booster. No real symptoms and antigen test is negative...so, rescheduling for next week. The weather should be ideal in the 70s late next week in Minneapolis. They are are going to see a couple of cloudy 50°F weather after the FROPA...which I don't mind but would have made the heat feel worse upon return!
98°F here this afternoon, but at least the DP fell off some.
It looks like we'll be able to experience this weekend's FROPA and a few days in the 80s. Our son tested positive for COVID but he's had full vax + booster. No real symptoms and antigen test is negative...so, rescheduling for next week. The weather should be ideal in the 70s late next week in Minneapolis. They are are going to see a couple of cloudy 50°F weather after the FROPA...which I don't mind but would have made the heat feel worse upon return!
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Stratton20
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18z GFS has trended even wetter for SE Texas over the next 7-10 days, might have to watch the flooding potential next week despite dry grounds
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Looks like the warming in the Gulf has came to a stop for now.
If anything there’s been more cooling than warming in the past 7 days.
If anything there’s been more cooling than warming in the past 7 days.
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tireman4
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We have aways to the saturation point, but good point.Stratton20 wrote: ↑Wed May 18, 2022 6:47 pm 18z GFS has trended even wetter for SE Texas over the next 7-10 days, might have to watch the flooding potential next week despite dry grounds
The forecast of heavy rain is interesting. Anything can change. Heavy rain and flooding have occurred in May, like in 1907, 1929, 1981, 1989, 2015, and 2016.