Long range model discussion

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Stratton20
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Re: Long range model discussion

Post by Stratton20 » Thu Jul 28, 2022 1:06 pm

captainbarbossa19 far out for sure but man most of those members are pretty strong, which isn’t surprising mainly because august-september is usually when we get stronger systems conpared to june/july which are more shared and lopsided, definitely something to watch over the next 7-10 days

Edit: 12z GEFS still has a pretty strong signal as well

Stratton20
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Re: Long range model discussion

Post by Stratton20 » Thu Jul 28, 2022 11:38 pm

Long range 00z GFS, yes this is going to change a bazillion times, mainly for fun, but it does show us that the Atlantic will be coming to life in a few weeks
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Stratton20
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Re: Long range model discussion

Post by Stratton20 » Sat Jul 30, 2022 5:41 pm

Lol the 18z GFS is smoking rocks🤣

Stormlover2020
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Re: Long range model discussion

Post by Stormlover2020 » Sat Jul 30, 2022 6:31 pm

Smoking rocks, could be wrong but it’s almost august it hasn’t spit out to many phantom storms in a while, heart of the season is coming up so doesn’t surprise me one bit

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Re: Long range model discussion

Post by Stratton20 » Sat Jul 30, 2022 7:50 pm

Stormlove2020 Oh i mean smoking rocks because it kindof just meanders the system around in the GOM while going down to the low 930’s which is cat 5,

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Re: Long range model discussion

Post by Stratton20 » Sat Aug 06, 2022 11:05 am

12z GFS briefly shows a low pressure forming off the coast of Louisiana next week fwiw

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captainbarbossa19
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Re: Long range model discussion

Post by captainbarbossa19 » Sat Aug 06, 2022 12:27 pm

Stratton20 wrote:
Sat Aug 06, 2022 11:05 am
12z GFS briefly shows a low pressure forming off the coast of Louisiana next week fwiw
My luck it will hit Louisiana and make travel a mess for me heading to Starkville on Friday. I would rather the Gulf hold off until after I move in. Lol

Stratton20
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Re: Long range model discussion

Post by Stratton20 » Sat Aug 06, 2022 12:30 pm

captainbarbossa19 on that run the low pretty much traverses the coastline of Louisiana until getting pulled northward around vermillion bay, ICON is further south though

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Re: Long range model discussion

Post by Stratton20 » Sun Aug 07, 2022 2:27 pm

12z ICON with a moderate tropical storm around saturday/sunday fwiw
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Pas_Bon
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Re: Long range model discussion

Post by Pas_Bon » Mon Aug 08, 2022 12:27 pm

Stratton20 wrote:
Sat Jul 30, 2022 7:50 pm
Stormlove2020 Oh i mean smoking rocks because it kindof just meanders the system around in the GOM while going down to the low 930’s which is cat 5,
Considering the GOM SST's and ENSO forecasts, I wouldn't be completely shocked by this.....

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