Long range model discussion

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MontgomeryCoWx
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Cpv17 wrote: Mon Dec 05, 2022 9:24 am Things are trending much colder as we get towards mid month. I’m kind of afraid that we might get a cooldown before Christmas and then it warms back up for Christmas. Hopefully with the -NAO locked in, it’ll have staying power.
I’m not. This pattern with this blocking and a lackadaisical, meandering MJO and you get these 3-4 week upper air setups.

I believe Cosgrove and Webb have both said they expect this next cold snap to last until week 2 of January.

That would most likely center the coldest anomalies around Christmas to New Years with the polar front express in high gear.
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Cpv17
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I think if we’re gonna enter a colder pattern it’s gonna be sometime after the 20th. I see nothing on the models through the 11th that suggests a cooldown is coming. The Aleutian trough looks pretty stubborn and persistent.
Stratton20
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Actually I do see some hints at a Sudden Stratospheric warming event taking shape, but id say after the 15th or so, but I still believe this warm pattern isnt going to be staying for long
Cpv17
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Stratton20 wrote: Tue Dec 27, 2022 8:19 pm Actually I do see some hints at a Sudden Stratospheric warming event taking shape, but id say after the 15th or so, but I still believe this warm pattern isnt going to be staying for long
Yeah but there’s usually a pretty decent lag after SSW’s occur so I’m thinking more so after the 20th.
Cpv17
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If we’re gonna change this pattern we’re gonna need the Pacific to chill out. It’s crashing hard into Cali right now and flooding most of the country with warm air. Record breaking rainfall for Cali and a ridiculous amount of snow out west. And it doesn’t look like it’s going to stop anytime soon either.
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It will begin to die down eventually, id say after the 15th the pattern is going to flip again
Cpv17
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Long ways out but the GFS is starting to break down the Pacific jet. We’ll see if it’s the start of a trend.
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Ptarmigan
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Cpv17 wrote: Tue Dec 27, 2022 8:35 pm
Stratton20 wrote: Tue Dec 27, 2022 8:19 pm Actually I do see some hints at a Sudden Stratospheric warming event taking shape, but id say after the 15th or so, but I still believe this warm pattern isnt going to be staying for long
Yeah but there’s usually a pretty decent lag after SSW’s occur so I’m thinking more so after the 20th.
These cold blasts start weeks in advance.
Cpv17
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Ptarmigan wrote: Thu Dec 29, 2022 7:01 pm
Cpv17 wrote: Tue Dec 27, 2022 8:35 pm
Stratton20 wrote: Tue Dec 27, 2022 8:19 pm Actually I do see some hints at a Sudden Stratospheric warming event taking shape, but id say after the 15th or so, but I still believe this warm pattern isnt going to be staying for long
Yeah but there’s usually a pretty decent lag after SSW’s occur so I’m thinking more so after the 20th.
These cold blasts start weeks in advance.
I’ve heard after an SSW there’s a 2-4 week lag before it translates down into the troposphere.

Well good news on the 6z GEFS. It’s finally starting to show some ridging into western Canada and into Alaska but it’s a long ways out so nothing to get excited about yet. Not even close actually but figured it was worth a mention.
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Cosgrove said that he expects the cold later in January or February to be more severe than what we just experienced. That’s a huge risk for him to say imo. I would never say anything like that if I was a met so he must be feeling really confident.
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