Long range model discussion

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Stratton20
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And the 00z euro Kicks off the unofficial start of hurricane season with a weak system approaching the mississippi delta at hour 240, let the long nights of model watching and ridiculous GFS fantasy runs commence!😄😂😂
Cpv17
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Stratton20 wrote: Fri May 19, 2023 2:23 am And the 00z euro Kicks off the unofficial start of hurricane season with a weak system approaching the mississippi delta at hour 240, let the long nights of model watching and ridiculous GFS fantasy runs commence!😄😂😂
There’s some ensemble support from both the GFS and Euro but it’s a really weak signal for now.
Stratton20
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12z EPS has good support for * Potentially * our first tropical system of the season, hope it brings rain to florida cause thise folks need it badly
Cpv17
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For the heart of hurricane season:

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Stratton20
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Cpv17 yikes😬
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DoctorMu
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Stratton20 wrote: Sun May 21, 2023 1:47 pm Cpv17 yikes😬
There will be plenty of El Niño shear. Lots of lemonade (weak systems wandering inland) to keep our grass and trees happy for a change this summer. Fingers crossed.
Stratton20
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DoctorMu for the most part their should be, but i do think their will be a window of opportunity for development where the shear isnt high, i wouldnt mind a couple of weakt sloppy systems to keep the grass green but i definitely dont want a hurricane either, just gotta watch it
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DoctorMu
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Shear is rockin' already in the GOM and Caribbean.

Weaksauce systems and unfocused rain, FTW. Fingers crossed.
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Stratton20
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we will see, as they say hope for the best but prepare for the worst, all it takes is one tropical disturbance to get into a pocket of lower shear and dry air and its game on, its just a matter of who gets hit, but thats in the august- october timeframe, seems like june-july are almost always dead months with the occasional homegrown system
Cpv17
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It’s normal for the shear maps to look like that this time of the year.
Pas_Bon
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DoctorMu wrote: Wed May 24, 2023 3:07 pm Shear is rockin' already in the GOM and Caribbean.

Weaksauce systems and unfocused rain, FTW. Fingers crossed.
Looks like it’s finally Oregon’s turn….
Cpv17
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6z GFS has something that comes off the coast of Texas and tries to spin into a weak low that crashes into NOLA in about 9-10 days.
Stratton20
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Cpv17 I just saw that, interesting
Only a handful of members show anything though so not likely to happen, besides if any low does form it will get pushed off to our east
Stratton20
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18z GEFS does have a few members that suggest weak low pressure could spin up in the NW gulf late next week, but not a likely scenario, still a reminder that its getting closer to that time of the year though
Stratton20
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Tropical mischief in the gulf down the road? EPS has a decent single, wont be a problem for us though, just that time of the year though
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Stratton20
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And the first GFS fantasy tropical phantom storms of the season are officially in🤣looking forward to seeing insane runs that will almost never verifiy
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MontgomeryCoWx
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Baseball all day today. Brutal!

Aggies beat Stanford though. Eat it, nerds!
Team #NeverSummer
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snowman65
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Is it fall yet????
Stratton20
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I want whatever the 18z GFS is smoking😂😂
Cpv17
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57 on S2K is already saying it’ll be a quiet season for the Gulf. Surprise surprise.
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