Long range model discussion

[user:null]

We likely will, with a strengthening el nino, that will force the storm track much further south, and likely a +PNA so the western US looks warmer and drier, while our neck of the woods should be cooler and wetter

If there is a +PNA, which is usually encouraged with El Nino years, that would shunt a greater percentage of cold effects off to the East as opposed to a Texas/South Central focus (ala 2021). The El Nino winters of 2015-2016 ended up being rather mild/warm for this reason.

[Cpv17]

We likely will, with a strengthening el nino, that will force the storm track much further south, and likely a +PNA so the western US looks warmer and drier, while our neck of the woods should be cooler and wetter

If there is a +PNA, which is usually encouraged with El Nino years, that would shunt a greater percentage of cold effects off to the East as opposed to a Texas/South Central focus (ala 2021). The El Nino winters of 2015-2016 ended up being rather mild/warm for this reason.

We’re screwed if it’s too much of a positive PNA. A slightly positive PNA and we should be good. Neutral is the sweet spot.

[user:null]

We’re screwed if it’s too much of a positive PNA. A slightly positive PNA and we should be good. Neutral is the sweet spot.

I'm actually a warm-lover, probably moreso than even wxman57 himself. So what is good for you and others definitely isn't good for me. Especially given recent debacles of 2021, along with the effects of the ice storms earlier this year in Central/North Texas.

BUT ... IF we WERE to have a winter event this year? I much rather it be the December of 08 and 09 type of events: those days in the 40s that cool low enough in the 30s to feature changeover to snow (including some accumulations). The marginality the entire way reduces energy demand, no worries about busted pipes, and it would be a great novelty in contrast to all the doom and gloom in the media/memes regarding TX energy grid.