Long range model discussion

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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Stratton20
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Cpv17 yep looks like the environment might be more favorable, will have to watch and “sea”😆
Stratton20
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12z GEFS, the 29th-1st time period we may need to watch for a potential spin up
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Stratton20
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00z Euro tries to spin up some tropical mischief around day 10, we will see
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Stratton20
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12z Euro has a weak depression/storm in the BOC late next weekend, 12z EPS starting to sniff out as well
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Cpv17
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Mid to late June we may need to watch the tropics.
Stratton20
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Cpv17 yep GEFS and GEPS agree with that
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Cpv17
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Stratton20 wrote: Fri Jun 03, 2022 6:07 pm Cpv17 yep GEFS and GEPS agree with that
It’s appearing to me that the western Gulf may be open for business in about 2 weeks from now.
Stratton20
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Cpv17 what are you seeing that may indicate that?
Cpv17
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Stratton20 wrote: Fri Jun 03, 2022 8:08 pm Cpv17 what are you seeing that may indicate that?
Long range ensembles are hinting at possible ridging developing over the southeast which would push any tc towards the western Gulf. Latest CPC 3-4 week forecast agrees with this as well.

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At the same timeframe the GEFS is showing this:

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Stratton20
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Interesting! Guess we will see how this evolves over the next 10-12 days
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