Long range model discussion

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Iceresistance
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Long range model discussion

Post by Iceresistance » Wed May 11, 2022 7:03 pm

The GFS has a strong Hurricane in May in the GoM, the SSTs are fit for something like this! :shock:

Stratton20
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Re: Long range model discussion

Post by Stratton20 » Wed May 11, 2022 7:49 pm

Iceresistance yep! Most of the gulf is at or above 80 degrees already
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cperk
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Re: Long range model discussion

Post by cperk » Thu May 12, 2022 11:52 am

The 12z GFS has a 969mb hurricane sitting south of the Texas/Louisiana coastline 5/28.

Stratton20
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Re: Long range model discussion

Post by Stratton20 » Thu May 12, 2022 12:18 pm

cperk thats borderline cat 3 ,it is so far pit but it has been showing up quite a bit on the GFS runs, their is some ensemble support for development around the 20th timeframe, though if we get something to develop, i highly doupt it would be as strong as what the GFS shows, though a favorable phase of the MJO and a CCKW will be passing through around the 20-24th time frame, definitely could kick start something
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cperk
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Re: Long range model discussion

Post by cperk » Thu May 12, 2022 1:54 pm

Stratton20 wrote:
Thu May 12, 2022 12:18 pm
cperk thats borderline cat 3 ,it is so far pit but it has been showing up quite a bit on the GFS runs, their is some ensemble support for development around the 20th timeframe, though if we get something to develop, i highly doupt it would be as strong as what the GFS shows, though a favorable phase of the MJO and a CCKW will be passing through around the 20-24th time frame, definitely could kick start something
Yeah May hurricanes are rare only 4 have been recorded with hurricane Able in 1951 being the strongest at a category3.

Stratton20
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Re: Long range model discussion

Post by Stratton20 » Thu May 12, 2022 1:57 pm

cperk yep I dont anticipate a hurricane, but I will say the ensemble support has continued to grow on the GEFS in its 12z run, i did a time stamp of the GEFS at day 7 and day 10, definitely a decent signal for something to get going
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captainbarbossa19
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Re: Long range model discussion

Post by captainbarbossa19 » Thu May 12, 2022 3:17 pm

The 12z Euro has a ridge develop over the Great Lakes and east coast in about a week. If something tries to develop to our south, we would likely be in a favorable position for impact.

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Re: Long range model discussion

Post by Stratton20 » Thu May 12, 2022 3:28 pm

captainbarbossa19 even though its a weak signal, FWIW the EPS ensemble is also starting to sniff out potential development in the western caribbean/yucatan channel by days 8-10
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Cpv17
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Re: Long range model discussion

Post by Cpv17 » Thu May 12, 2022 3:40 pm

Don’t be too surprised if we see something form over in the EPAC and cross over into the SW Caribbean or BOC. Whatever forms would most likely remain very weak.

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Re: Long range model discussion

Post by Stratton20 » Thu May 12, 2022 3:55 pm

Cpv17 I think what the GFS and ensembles are picking up on is that tropical wave that came off from africa, thats what i think is what they are suggesting could develop as it gets into the southern caribbean

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