Long range model discussion

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Cpv17
Posts: 3603
Joined: Fri Aug 31, 2018 12:58 pm
Location: El Campo/Wharton
Contact:

Re: Long range model discussion

Post by Cpv17 » Wed Aug 24, 2022 2:38 pm

Stratton20 wrote:
Wed Aug 24, 2022 2:31 pm
Cpv17 plus its no surprise our caribbean disturbance isnt doing much right now, dealing with dry air, and that’s probably why the - 12z models backed off on development , i suspect once the wave gets into the western caribbean where the environment is much more conducive, models might start to show development again
I suspect they’ll start showing development again. Just a matter of time. I still think it has a decent shot at developing. I’d put it at about 50% over the next 10 days personally.

Stratton20
Posts: 2747
Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
Location: College Station, Texas
Contact:

Re: Long range model discussion

Post by Stratton20 » Wed Aug 24, 2022 2:41 pm

Cpv17 they probably will, the wave is just not in a favorable environment right now, plus the further west it gets before potentially starting to develop does at least concern me somewhat, seeing that the strongest members from both ensembles favor Texas or mexico

Stratton20
Posts: 2747
Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
Location: College Station, Texas
Contact:

Re: Long range model discussion

Post by Stratton20 » Wed Aug 24, 2022 6:10 pm

CPV17 18z GEFS…..😬😬 11 days out but boy a lot of really atrong members headed towards Texas…..
Attachments
3EBAF20E-4F0C-4C42-8ECF-02A88DE16183.png

Iceresistance
Posts: 478
Joined: Fri Apr 30, 2021 10:48 pm
Location: Tecumseh, OK
Contact:

Re: Long range model discussion

Post by Iceresistance » Mon Sep 19, 2022 6:43 pm

The models are going crazy with the upcoming Caribbean system.

Cpv17
Posts: 3603
Joined: Fri Aug 31, 2018 12:58 pm
Location: El Campo/Wharton
Contact:

Re: Long range model discussion

Post by Cpv17 » Mon Sep 19, 2022 8:20 pm

Iceresistance wrote:
Mon Sep 19, 2022 6:43 pm
The models are going crazy with the upcoming Caribbean system.
Yep! Looks to be a Florida panhandle event.

Stratton20
Posts: 2747
Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
Location: College Station, Texas
Contact:

Re: Long range model discussion

Post by Stratton20 » Mon Sep 19, 2022 8:42 pm

Anywhere from Texas to Florida needs to watch this, its just simply far too early to rule out any specific area, just because history is on our side does not mean it cant happen, we wont know where this will go until it reaches the western caribbean in about 7 days, so any track projections by models right now can be taken with a massive grain of salt, steering currents can and will change when we are talking about any potential impacts to the US/GOM which are still a good 10-12 days away, even if we dont have a direct hit, we could still potentially have a close call, doesnt need to be a direct hit to bring impacts

User avatar
sambucol
Posts: 769
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 5:43 pm
Location: Baytown
Contact:

Re: Long range model discussion

Post by sambucol » Mon Sep 19, 2022 11:54 pm

Stratton20 wrote:
Mon Sep 19, 2022 8:42 pm
Anywhere from Texas to Florida needs to watch this, its just simply far too early to rule out any specific area, just because history is on our side does not mean it cant happen, we wont know where this will go until it reaches the western caribbean in about 7 days, so any track projections by models right now can be taken with a massive grain of salt, steering currents can and will change when we are talking about any potential impacts to the US/GOM which are still a good 10-12 days away, even if we dont have a direct hit, we could still potentially have a close call, doesnt need to be a direct hit to bring impacts
I agree. October 1989 Texas got hit by Hurricane Jerry, so it’s not out of the question if Texas was hit again.

Stratton20
Posts: 2747
Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
Location: College Station, Texas
Contact:

Re: Long range model discussion

Post by Stratton20 » Tue Sep 20, 2022 2:10 pm

12z EPS with a significant spread
Attachments
961FA867-1D3E-4A54-B201-430F15F48544.png

User avatar
tireman4
Global Moderator
Global Moderator
Posts: 3692
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
Location: Humble, Texas
Contact:

Re: Long range model discussion

Post by tireman4 » Tue Sep 20, 2022 2:14 pm

Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located a few hundred miles east of the Windward
Islands continues to show signs of organization. Additional
development is expected, and a tropical depression is likely to form
within the next few days as the system moves westward to
west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and central
Caribbean Sea. Interests in the Windward Islands should closely
monitor the progress of this system as heavy rainfall and gusty
winds could affect these islands beginning on Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

User avatar
DoctorMu
Posts: 4191
Joined: Sun Jun 28, 2015 10:58 am
Location: College Station
Contact:

Re: Long range model discussion

Post by DoctorMu » Sun Sep 25, 2022 12:25 am

Getting serious for the FL Gulf Coast.
Attachments
09L_intensity_latest-1.png
AL092022_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

Post Reply