Long range model discussion

[Cpv17]

Cpv17 plus its no surprise our caribbean disturbance isnt doing much right now, dealing with dry air, and that’s probably why the - 12z models backed off on development , i suspect once the wave gets into the western caribbean where the environment is much more conducive, models might start to show development again

I suspect they’ll start showing development again. Just a matter of time. I still think it has a decent shot at developing. I’d put it at about 50% over the next 10 days personally.

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 they probably will, the wave is just not in a favorable environment right now, plus the further west it gets before potentially starting to develop does at least concern me somewhat, seeing that the strongest members from both ensembles favor Texas or mexico

[Stratton20]

CPV17 18z GEFS….. 11 days out but boy a lot of really atrong members headed towards Texas…..

[Iceresistance]

The models are going crazy with the upcoming Caribbean system.

[Cpv17]

The models are going crazy with the upcoming Caribbean system.

Yep! Looks to be a Florida panhandle event.

[Stratton20]

Anywhere from Texas to Florida needs to watch this, its just simply far too early to rule out any specific area, just because history is on our side does not mean it cant happen, we wont know where this will go until it reaches the western caribbean in about 7 days, so any track projections by models right now can be taken with a massive grain of salt, steering currents can and will change when we are talking about any potential impacts to the US/GOM which are still a good 10-12 days away, even if we dont have a direct hit, we could still potentially have a close call, doesnt need to be a direct hit to bring impacts

[sambucol]

Anywhere from Texas to Florida needs to watch this, its just simply far too early to rule out any specific area, just because history is on our side does not mean it cant happen, we wont know where this will go until it reaches the western caribbean in about 7 days, so any track projections by models right now can be taken with a massive grain of salt, steering currents can and will change when we are talking about any potential impacts to the US/GOM which are still a good 10-12 days away, even if we dont have a direct hit, we could still potentially have a close call, doesnt need to be a direct hit to bring impacts

I agree. October 1989 Texas got hit by Hurricane Jerry, so it’s not out of the question if Texas was hit again.

[Stratton20]

12z EPS with a significant spread

[tireman4]

Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located a few hundred miles east of the Windward
Islands continues to show signs of organization. Additional
development is expected, and a tropical depression is likely to form
within the next few days as the system moves westward to
west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and central
Caribbean Sea. Interests in the Windward Islands should closely
monitor the progress of this system as heavy rainfall and gusty
winds could affect these islands beginning on Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

[DoctorMu]

Getting serious for the FL Gulf Coast.