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Long range model discussion

Posted: Wed May 11, 2022 8:03 pm
by Iceresistance
The GFS has a strong Hurricane in May in the GoM, the SSTs are fit for something like this! :shock:

Re: Long range model discussion

Posted: Wed May 11, 2022 8:49 pm
by Stratton20
Iceresistance yep! Most of the gulf is at or above 80 degrees already

Re: Long range model discussion

Posted: Thu May 12, 2022 12:52 pm
by cperk
The 12z GFS has a 969mb hurricane sitting south of the Texas/Louisiana coastline 5/28.

Re: Long range model discussion

Posted: Thu May 12, 2022 1:18 pm
by Stratton20
cperk thats borderline cat 3 ,it is so far pit but it has been showing up quite a bit on the GFS runs, their is some ensemble support for development around the 20th timeframe, though if we get something to develop, i highly doupt it would be as strong as what the GFS shows, though a favorable phase of the MJO and a CCKW will be passing through around the 20-24th time frame, definitely could kick start something

Re: Long range model discussion

Posted: Thu May 12, 2022 2:54 pm
by cperk
Stratton20 wrote: Thu May 12, 2022 1:18 pm cperk thats borderline cat 3 ,it is so far pit but it has been showing up quite a bit on the GFS runs, their is some ensemble support for development around the 20th timeframe, though if we get something to develop, i highly doupt it would be as strong as what the GFS shows, though a favorable phase of the MJO and a CCKW will be passing through around the 20-24th time frame, definitely could kick start something
Yeah May hurricanes are rare only 4 have been recorded with hurricane Able in 1951 being the strongest at a category3.

Re: Long range model discussion

Posted: Thu May 12, 2022 2:57 pm
by Stratton20
cperk yep I dont anticipate a hurricane, but I will say the ensemble support has continued to grow on the GEFS in its 12z run, i did a time stamp of the GEFS at day 7 and day 10, definitely a decent signal for something to get going

Re: Long range model discussion

Posted: Thu May 12, 2022 4:17 pm
by captainbarbossa19
The 12z Euro has a ridge develop over the Great Lakes and east coast in about a week. If something tries to develop to our south, we would likely be in a favorable position for impact.

Re: Long range model discussion

Posted: Thu May 12, 2022 4:28 pm
by Stratton20
captainbarbossa19 even though its a weak signal, FWIW the EPS ensemble is also starting to sniff out potential development in the western caribbean/yucatan channel by days 8-10

Re: Long range model discussion

Posted: Thu May 12, 2022 4:40 pm
by Cpv17
Don’t be too surprised if we see something form over in the EPAC and cross over into the SW Caribbean or BOC. Whatever forms would most likely remain very weak.

Re: Long range model discussion

Posted: Thu May 12, 2022 4:55 pm
by Stratton20
Cpv17 I think what the GFS and ensembles are picking up on is that tropical wave that came off from africa, thats what i think is what they are suggesting could develop as it gets into the southern caribbean

Re: Long range model discussion

Posted: Thu May 12, 2022 5:39 pm
by Cpv17
This time of the year and into June we see a lot of crossovers from the EPAC and the Euro seems to be favoring the EPAC right now for possible consolidation/genesis if anything comes out of this. Regardless, at least it’s something to watch.

Re: Long range model discussion

Posted: Thu May 12, 2022 6:28 pm
by Stratton20
Lol the 18z GFS had too much whisky😆😆 stalls a cat 4 in the middle of the GOM and just keeps it their haha before eventually heading towards Louisiana

Re: Long range model discussion

Posted: Thu May 12, 2022 8:56 pm
by srainhoutx
The 12Z ECMWF ensembles suggests the possibility of a Western Caribbean disturbance. We do not discourage discussions of potential tropical mischief on our Forum. There are plenty of folks that monitor our discussions here on Wx Infinity. Carry on...

Re: Long range model discussion

Posted: Fri May 13, 2022 2:10 am
by DoctorMu
Just sayin'

Image

Re: Long range model discussion

Posted: Fri May 13, 2022 12:43 pm
by Stratton20
12z GEFS continues to signal for some early season development around days 7-9, the GFS operational runs are still pretty crazy, EPS still not that aggressive though, still bears watching as a favorable phase of the MJO and an active CCKW will be passing through during that time, could make things interesting

Re: Long range model discussion

Posted: Fri May 13, 2022 7:38 pm
by DoctorMu
The GFS Fantasy now slams through Gainesville, FL on May 24.

Re: Long range model discussion

Posted: Fri May 13, 2022 11:34 pm
by Cpv17
The latest superblend rainfall anomaly from the UKMET+ECMWF for the August through October time period is favoring the central Gulf states for a lot of rain. The western Gulf and Texas looks high and dry.

Re: Long range model discussion

Posted: Sat May 14, 2022 12:23 am
by Stratton20
Cpv17 that is so far though, id take that with a massive grain of salt

Re: Long range model discussion

Posted: Sat May 14, 2022 12:28 am
by Cpv17
Stratton20 wrote: Sat May 14, 2022 12:23 am Cpv17 that is so far though, id take that with a massive grain of salt
Yeah I know but with how dry it’s been and the feedback loop were stuck in, it wouldn’t surprise me. I could see that verifying.

Re: Long range model discussion

Posted: Sat May 14, 2022 12:38 am
by Stratton20
Cpv17 Lets hope not! Its already bad enough in west texas