Long range model discussion

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Stratton20
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Re: Long range model discussion

Post by Stratton20 » Tue Jun 21, 2022 3:34 pm

captainbarbossa19 yep that will be interesting to see how the wave the EPS shows evolves, also EPS showing some sort of weak system potentially in the gulf next week, thats something to watch as well
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Cpv17
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Re: Long range model discussion

Post by Cpv17 » Tue Jun 21, 2022 4:08 pm

Stratton20 wrote:
Tue Jun 21, 2022 3:34 pm
captainbarbossa19 yep that will be interesting to see how the wave the EPS shows evolves, also EPS showing some sort of weak system potentially in the gulf next week, thats something to watch as well
The stronger the storm the more poleward that would go. A weak storm would most likely just crash into Central America.

Stratton20
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Re: Long range model discussion

Post by Stratton20 » Tue Jun 21, 2022 4:14 pm

Cpv17 true, but we will see if the wave can survive its track first, definitely has some obstacles ahead of it, also will see what “may” try to happen in the gulf next week

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Re: Long range model discussion

Post by Stratton20 » Tue Jul 05, 2022 8:36 am

06z GFS showing possible TC genesis next week, we will see if model runs going forward are consistent or not
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Stratton20
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Re: Long range model discussion

Post by Stratton20 » Sat Jul 16, 2022 11:13 am

12z GFS hinting at some gulf mischief by around the 24/25th, far out, but it is hurricane season and that is also around the time that a favorable phase of the MJO will be making its return to the Atlantic basin
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Stratton20
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Re: Long range model discussion

Post by Stratton20 » Sun Jul 24, 2022 5:20 pm

The August 1st-5th time frame might be one to watch, the GFS including its latest 18z run is hinting at some sort of tropical entity in the western GOM, it is far out but just something interesting to “watch”

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captainbarbossa19
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Re: Long range model discussion

Post by captainbarbossa19 » Sun Jul 24, 2022 8:08 pm

Stratton20 wrote:
Sun Jul 24, 2022 5:20 pm
The August 1st-5th time frame might be one to watch, the GFS including its latest 18z run is hinting at some sort of tropical entity in the western GOM, it is far out but just something interesting to “watch”
Yep. It is flip-flopping right now on something. If it starts being consistent, and more models jump on board, I will start paying more attention.

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Re: Long range model discussion

Post by Stratton20 » Sun Jul 24, 2022 8:44 pm

captainbarbossa19 3 of the pst 4 runs it has shown something, I will say though even though the euro isnt showing the GFS system, the Euro does indicate on the wind shear anomaly run, below normal wind shear in the GOM during the same time period as the GFS system fwiw, the 12z EPS is also the same as the operational run

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Re: Long range model discussion

Post by Stratton20 » Wed Jul 27, 2022 6:07 pm

This is day 10 on the 18z GEFS, maybe something to watch down the road?
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captainbarbossa19
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Re: Long range model discussion

Post by captainbarbossa19 » Thu Jul 28, 2022 11:38 am

Stratton20 wrote:
Wed Jul 27, 2022 6:07 pm
This is day 10 on the 18z GEFS, maybe something to watch down the road?
Here is the 6z GEFS. Obviously this is too far out, but it is picking up on better conditions soon. Also, not liking the locations.

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