Long range model discussion

[Cpv17]

Both the Euro and GFS are trending much wetter in the medium/long range fwiw

I noticed yesterday the models were dry for us and the CPC forecast was wet for us. Then today the models turned wetter and the CPC forecast turned drier. Makes zero sense

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 i figure it most be the ensembles they are looking at, definitely is head scratching though, though intriguing to see the euro starts to hint at a cut off upper low at the end of its run, we know what those can do
I also think the CPC has trended drier simply because they want to see if the global models are going to consistently be wet like todays runs or if they are going to back off to a more dry solution

[Stratton20]

12z Euro is very active! Wow

[DoctorMu]

Both the Euro and GFS are trending much wetter in the medium/long range fwiw

I noticed yesterday the models were dry for us and the CPC forecast was wet for us. Then today the models turned wetter and the CPC forecast turned drier. Makes zero sense

Welcome to long-term models.

I have a weather ouija board as well.

[Stratton20]

00z GFS next 10 days, definitely has trended wetter, good soaking rains for many

[Stratton20]

Interesting to see the GFS is trying to develop what may be a cut off upper low out in the desert SW in the medium range, that could make things interesting going forward

[Cpv17]

Mid to late first week of May is looking pretty interesting, for now anyway.

[Stratton20]

12z CMC sees a cut off upper low slowly moving east across the desert southwest, first week of may looks pretty wet

[Stratton20]

00z Euro drags a front in here next week and stalls it out, chance of daily thunderstorms after the 4th and beyond

[DoctorMu]

May 10-17. Looks like a major low blasting across the Midwest with The Last FROPA of the season digging hard and lifting some hot, humid air: EFS, GEFS, GEPS Ensembles have all bought into mega rain.