Long range model discussion

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Stratton20
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Cpv17 Yep we really need to watch this one closesly, has a favorable environment in the caribbean
Cpv17
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Stratton20 wrote: Tue Aug 23, 2022 7:28 pm Cpv17 Yep we really need to watch this one closesly, has a favorable environment in the caribbean
Yeah this is the most alarming run of any ensemble I’ve seen all year.
Stratton20
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Cpv17 yep, most 18z GEFS members that are really strong, go further west towards texas…. Its going to be a very interesting week of model watching to say the least
Cpv17
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18z Euro is a tiny bit stronger than the 12z.
Stratton20
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Cpv17 yep the vorticity is a little more consolidated, tonights 00z runs are going to be very interesting indeed
Cpv17
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18z GEFS ensembles:

Image
Stratton20
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Cpv17 seeing all those stronger members in the western gulf is alarming
Stratton20
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Still decent support from the 12z EPS fwiw
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Cpv17
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Stratton20 wrote: Wed Aug 24, 2022 3:17 pm Still decent support from the 12z EPS fwiw
Yeah it’s still worth paying attention to and so is the one about to exit Africa.
Stratton20
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Cpv17 plus its no surprise our caribbean disturbance isnt doing much right now, dealing with dry air, and that’s probably why the - 12z models backed off on development , i suspect once the wave gets into the western caribbean where the environment is much more conducive, models might start to show development again
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