Long range model discussion

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CRASHWX
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Todays GFS 12 z now NOLA with a retrograde west and heavy rain all the way back to H-town…way out and will change many times
:ugeek: CRASHWX :ugeek:
Stratton20
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12z EPS, support is low but not zero
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don
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FWIW the 12Z ICON for the first time now shows the disturbance in the NW Caribbean the GFS has been developing late next week.It also shows the tropical storm off the Carolinas that the GFS has been developing.Thats a little support for the GFS now, lets see if the CMC and EURO pick up on anything.
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don
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12Z GFS showing a weak tropical storm now instead of a cane.A much more realistic scenario for this time of year.
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Stratton20
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Don even if that doest come to to fruition, we still might have something to watch,
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Stratton20
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06z GEFS with very strong support next week, no other models show anything so im pretty skeptical, that being said it is hard to ignore that kind of support
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Stratton20
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Ive seen alot of crazy long range GFS runs but tonights 00z run takes the cake, stalls a category 4 just offshore the texas coast for several days with hurricane force winds along the coast, just fantasyland, though it does start development this phantom storm in the caribbean at hour 192 so its starting development time frame isnt too far out
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captainbarbossa19
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12z Euro is showing something weak in the GOM by day 10.
Stratton20
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captainbarbossa19 yep, 18z GFS starting to sniff some possible development in the NW caribbean in the days 7-9 range
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captainbarbossa19
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12z Euro has a system developing in the Caribbean by days 9 and 10. Looks the ridge starts to flatten out over us about that time too. I think that development is quite possible due to anomalous westerlies in the MDR and Caribbean.
Stratton20
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captainbarbossa19 yep models are starting to break dow. the ridge over us late next week, we will see if anything develops in the caribbean but the 12z EPS guidance does have a fairly healthy amount of support for the wave on the operational run
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Stratton20
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12z GEFS maybe sniffing out something at the end of next week, could just be typical model biacy though
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Cpv17
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The CMC, UKMET, ICON, and Euro all show potential development in the MDR. The GFS is the only model not showing anything..go figure.
Stratton20
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Cpv17 thats kind of ironic if you ask me 😂😂, but this is interesting, the latest EPS guidance over the next 9-10 days came out and beaides that wave in the MDR it has a 10-20% probability of potential development in the northern gulf, obviously low but given the history that the EPS is just as conservative as its operational run in terms of showing any signs of development, it certainly is interesting
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Stratton20
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12z Euro has a weak vorticity signature in the 850mb levels in the gulf approaching Texas at hour 216 , this kind of alligns with what the eps is showing in my post above, maybe a weak low?
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don
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Yep it shows a weak surface low developing and moving west into Texas around the southern periphery of high pressure.GFS develops a surface trough/low also but has it forming further north and east in the southeast instead.Would be nice to get some rain but not getting my hopes up...LOL
Stratton20
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Don at least on the Euro run , kinda looks similar to how barry formed, but fingers crossed, anything that could bring us rain (not too much of course) is appreciated
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don
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Yep another good example of such a pattern would be Tropical Storm Edouard in 2008.
Stratton20
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Don the 18z GFS around the 27/28th also develops a surface low and heads towards texas, with a little bit of a stronger vorticity signature at least at the 500 mb levels, just something to watch, though
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captainbarbossa19
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12z Euro ensembles are quite determined that we will have a storm in the Caribbean next week. Some even show a potential hurricane. If this happens, we are going to be in a for a very long show this season.
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