Long range model discussion

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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snowman65
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DoctorMu wrote: Sun Sep 25, 2022 1:25 am Getting serious for the FL Gulf Coast.
See how this pays out. I have relatives in Gainsville.
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DoctorMu
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Tampa is going to get spanked.
Iceresistance
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12z CMC has a cold blast with temperatures below freezing near Houston next week.
Stratton20
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Iceresistance im skeptical on that, seems way roo early for a freeze here
Iceresistance
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Stratton20 wrote: Tue Oct 11, 2022 4:48 pm Iceresistance im skeptical on that, seems way roo early for a freeze here
It's gone now with a freeze as far south as Northern Mississippi and Alabama
Stratton20
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Their are signs pointing that this winter could potentially be a cold one for Texas, POW Ponder made a youtube video talking about this yesterday, absolutely reliable and it was a really interesting winter outlook.
Cpv17
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Man that’s a massive system the 12z GFS has a days 8-9. Too bad it’ll probably go away.
Stratton20
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Cpv17 probably will, but models are starting to indicate that a significant trough will drop down unto the western US by the day 7-9 period, something to watch as the GFS has some pretty chilly air behind that system
Stratton20
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Both the Euro and GFS indicate that a significant trough will dig down into the western US sometimes next week or in the 6-10 day window timeframe, something to watch as this trough looks to have a. pretty chilly airmass behind it
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Iceresistance
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6z GFS has a Sleetstorm for my area near the end of the run, it's that time of the year again.
Stratton20
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Yep, too bad its long range, love seeing those bright purple colors spilling into the US, big arctic blast
Stratton20
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We are starting to get hints in the extended long range or 14-16 days that blocking may begin to setup in alaska, this is evident on the GFS 12z 500 mb height anomaly map, towards the end of the run very cold air starts to build up in canada, just something to watch
Stratton20
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LMAO I want whatever the 00z GFS is smoking🤣🤣 almost 2 feet of snow in west texas at the end of the run
Stratton20
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Cpv17 wow the 06z GEFS is about the best run ive seen in a while if you like colder weather! Below normal throughout the entire run!
Iceresistance
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Stratton20 wrote: Fri Nov 04, 2022 8:51 am Cpv17 wow the 06z GEFS is about the best run ive seen in a while if you like colder weather! Below normal throughout the entire run!
6z GFS has snow for my area in 2 weeks! :D
Stratton20
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Iceresistance the 06z GFS gets very close to a winter storm setup at about days 8-10 and then mutliple rounds of arctic air throughout the remainder of its run, what an amazing run!
Iceresistance
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Stratton20 wrote: Sun Nov 06, 2022 10:13 am Iceresistance the 06z GFS gets very close to a winter storm setup at about days 8-10 and then mutliple rounds of arctic air throughout the remainder of its run, what an amazing run!
And it was right! Holy cow!
Iceresistance
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Ultra-long range 0z CFS has a insane Late December.
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Ptarmigan
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Iceresistance wrote: Fri Dec 02, 2022 6:27 am Ultra-long range 0z CFS has a insane Late December.
I looked at Tropical Tidbits for 06Z CFS.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 306&fh=504

It forecasts cold weather around Christmas to New Years.
Cpv17
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Things are trending much colder as we get towards mid month. I’m kind of afraid that we might get a cooldown before Christmas and then it warms back up for Christmas. Hopefully with the -NAO locked in, it’ll have staying power.
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