Long range model discussion

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Stratton20
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Re: Long range model discussion

Post by Stratton20 » Sat Jun 18, 2022 2:28 pm

captainbarbossa19 yep models are starting to break dow. the ridge over us late next week, we will see if anything develops in the caribbean but the 12z EPS guidance does have a fairly healthy amount of support for the wave on the operational run
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Stratton20
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Re: Long range model discussion

Post by Stratton20 » Sat Jun 18, 2022 3:20 pm

12z GEFS maybe sniffing out something at the end of next week, could just be typical model biacy though
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Cpv17
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Re: Long range model discussion

Post by Cpv17 » Sun Jun 19, 2022 12:40 pm

The CMC, UKMET, ICON, and Euro all show potential development in the MDR. The GFS is the only model not showing anything..go figure.

Stratton20
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Re: Long range model discussion

Post by Stratton20 » Sun Jun 19, 2022 12:47 pm

Cpv17 thats kind of ironic if you ask me 😂😂, but this is interesting, the latest EPS guidance over the next 9-10 days came out and beaides that wave in the MDR it has a 10-20% probability of potential development in the northern gulf, obviously low but given the history that the EPS is just as conservative as its operational run in terms of showing any signs of development, it certainly is interesting
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Stratton20
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Re: Long range model discussion

Post by Stratton20 » Sun Jun 19, 2022 1:22 pm

12z Euro has a weak vorticity signature in the 850mb levels in the gulf approaching Texas at hour 216 , this kind of alligns with what the eps is showing in my post above, maybe a weak low?
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don
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Re: Long range model discussion

Post by don » Sun Jun 19, 2022 1:39 pm

Yep it shows a weak surface low developing and moving west into Texas around the southern periphery of high pressure.GFS develops a surface trough/low also but has it forming further north and east in the southeast instead.Would be nice to get some rain but not getting my hopes up...LOL

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Re: Long range model discussion

Post by Stratton20 » Sun Jun 19, 2022 1:43 pm

Don at least on the Euro run , kinda looks similar to how barry formed, but fingers crossed, anything that could bring us rain (not too much of course) is appreciated

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don
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Re: Long range model discussion

Post by don » Sun Jun 19, 2022 1:47 pm

Yep another good example of such a pattern would be Tropical Storm Edouard in 2008.

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Re: Long range model discussion

Post by Stratton20 » Sun Jun 19, 2022 5:04 pm

Don the 18z GFS around the 27/28th also develops a surface low and heads towards texas, with a little bit of a stronger vorticity signature at least at the 500 mb levels, just something to watch, though
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captainbarbossa19
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Re: Long range model discussion

Post by captainbarbossa19 » Tue Jun 21, 2022 3:25 pm

12z Euro ensembles are quite determined that we will have a storm in the Caribbean next week. Some even show a potential hurricane. If this happens, we are going to be in a for a very long show this season.

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