Long range model discussion

[Cpv17]

Till the Euro shows something I wouldn’t expect this to get much attention. But with the way the Euro shows genesis you might not see it show anything till we already have a ts developed and even then it would probably only show an open wave lol

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 isnt the Euro typically the most conservative model in terms of showing some sort of development?

[Cpv17]

Cpv17 isnt the Euro typically the most conservative model in terms of showing some sort of development?

It’s the most conservative by a country mile but it’s the one that the majority of people still go by.

[captainbarbossa19]

Till the Euro shows something I wouldn’t expect this to get much attention. But with the way the Euro shows genesis you might not see it show anything till we already have a ts developed and even then it would probably only show an open wave lol

That is true, but it did a decent job with Alex. It really did not develop much until emerging over the Atlantic.

[Cpv17]

Till the Euro shows something I wouldn’t expect this to get much attention. But with the way the Euro shows genesis you might not see it show anything till we already have a ts developed and even then it would probably only show an open wave lol

That is true, but it did a decent job with Alex. It really did not develop much until emerging over the Atlantic.

Remember what the Euro did with Hanna? That was really bad. For whatever reason (it used to not be) the past few years it’s really struggled to sniff out genesis..even just a couple days out.

[Stratton20]

00z GEFS with a pretty good signal, still has some really strong members, and 00z CMC with a weak tropical storm making landfall in brownsville, operational GFS still not biting yet though

[cperk]

00z GEFS with a pretty good signal, still has some really strong members, and 00z CMC with a weak tropical storm making landfall in brownsville, operational GFS still not biting yet though

Stratton the operational 12Z GFS is now chiming in with a 953mb hurricane barreling down on the Houston/Galveston area around hour 360.

[Stratton20]

cperk yeah saw that, but i would probably put that in the back burner, what the GFS is doing is just weird

[Stratton20]

I think what could make this potentially a hard forecast of something tries to develop in about 8-9 days in the caribbean is the CAG, that always seems to be giving models fits as they try to guess which side of the basin vorticity may try to consolidate in, operational runs not buying , but still a decent signal in the 18z GEFS at days 7-8 to at least keep watching

[don]

Moderate probability of TC development put out by NOAA.

[Stratton20]

Don I will admit Im a little surprised they have a moderate zone in that area, operational models arent showing much and even the ensembles have back off quite a bit

[don]

The 12Z GFS for laughs.( I do think though TC genesis is a possibility late next week,but i doubt we'll get hurricane out of it LOL.)

[Cpv17]

Moderate probability of TC development put out by NOAA.

With the ridge over us that would squash it way down south and bury it into Tampico or Veracruz.

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 wait too soon to say that, depends on the orientation of the ridge

[Cpv17]

Cpv17 wait too soon to say that, depends on the orientation of the ridge

I’m talking about for next week. GFS has been showing two systems. One next week and one in fantasyland.

[Stratton20]

CPV17 ah yeah next week, definitely would get wwuashed to that south, man we need that ridge to breakdown, i am not going to enjoy the next 10 days at or above 100 lol

[Stratton20]

CPV17 ah yeah next week, definitely would get wwuashed to that south, man we need that ridge to breakdown, i am not going to enjoy the next 10 days at or above 100 lol

[Cpv17]

Joe B thinks thinks the eastern Gulf and the rest of the southeast coast will have 10 storms and the rest of the Gulf from New Orleans on down to Mexico just 4 storms. Quite a difference.

[Stratton20]

Here is a GIF I made of the 18z GEFS, this is starting to get inside of 10 days(240 hours) on the ensembles , still favors atlantic side, also 12z NAV GEM has a string tropical storm approaching the far northern mexican coast by next wednesday fwiw

[Stormlover2020]

Joe has always been eastern