Long range model discussion

[Stratton20]

Don I will admit Im a little surprised they have a moderate zone in that area, operational models arent showing much and even the ensembles have back off quite a bit

[don]

The 12Z GFS for laughs.( I do think though TC genesis is a possibility late next week,but i doubt we'll get hurricane out of it LOL.)

[Cpv17]

Moderate probability of TC development put out by NOAA.

With the ridge over us that would squash it way down south and bury it into Tampico or Veracruz.

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 wait too soon to say that, depends on the orientation of the ridge

[Cpv17]

Cpv17 wait too soon to say that, depends on the orientation of the ridge

I’m talking about for next week. GFS has been showing two systems. One next week and one in fantasyland.

[Stratton20]

CPV17 ah yeah next week, definitely would get wwuashed to that south, man we need that ridge to breakdown, i am not going to enjoy the next 10 days at or above 100 lol

[Stratton20]

CPV17 ah yeah next week, definitely would get wwuashed to that south, man we need that ridge to breakdown, i am not going to enjoy the next 10 days at or above 100 lol

[Cpv17]

Joe B thinks thinks the eastern Gulf and the rest of the southeast coast will have 10 storms and the rest of the Gulf from New Orleans on down to Mexico just 4 storms. Quite a difference.

[Stratton20]

Here is a GIF I made of the 18z GEFS, this is starting to get inside of 10 days(240 hours) on the ensembles , still favors atlantic side, also 12z NAV GEM has a string tropical storm approaching the far northern mexican coast by next wednesday fwiw

[Stormlover2020]

Joe has always been eastern