Long range model discussion

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Stratton20
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Re: Long range model discussion

Post by Stratton20 » Mon Aug 08, 2022 12:37 pm

Pas_Bon yup, while other models aren’t showing any development like the ICON, the GFS and CMC have a back door front working its way into in the GOM at day 5, we all know the rule when fronts stall in the GON with these incredibly warm SST’s , potential for sneaky development exists

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Re: Long range model discussion

Post by Stratton20 » Sat Aug 13, 2022 9:49 am

CPV17 06z GEFS for next week, thats a decent signal in the GOM .
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Cpv17
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Re: Long range model discussion

Post by Cpv17 » Wed Aug 17, 2022 8:33 am


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jasons2k
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Re: Long range model discussion

Post by jasons2k » Sat Aug 20, 2022 8:30 am

Stratton20 wrote:
Sat Aug 13, 2022 9:49 am
CPV17 06z GEFS for next week, thats a decent signal in the GOM .
It did a decent job sniffing that one out.

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Re: Long range model discussion

Post by Cpv17 » Sat Aug 20, 2022 12:20 pm

The 12z CMC has a tropical storm into Brownsville next Sunday. The GFS has it too but going towards Alabama/Florida. Something to watch.

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Re: Long range model discussion

Post by Stratton20 » Sat Aug 20, 2022 12:27 pm

Cpv17 agreed, they have been pretty consistent in the idea of another GOM system, it is late august after all

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Re: Long range model discussion

Post by Cpv17 » Sun Aug 21, 2022 10:21 am

It’s definitely time to start paying attention to the tropics. Both the GFS and European ensembles are showing development along with the operationals. They’re both fairly consistent.

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Re: Long range model discussion

Post by Stratton20 » Sun Aug 21, 2022 10:53 am

Cpv17 12z CMC has a weak tropical storm making landfall just to the west of galveston early next week fwiw

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Re: Long range model discussion

Post by Cpv17 » Sun Aug 21, 2022 11:03 am

Stratton20 wrote:
Sun Aug 21, 2022 10:53 am
Cpv17 12z CMC has a weak tropical storm making landfall just to the west of galveston early next week fwiw
That’s an ugly track. Would leave most of us high and dry. Need it to come in further southwest.

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Re: Long range model discussion

Post by Stratton20 » Sun Aug 21, 2022 11:17 am

Cpv17 Agreed, but it just shows that we may have something to watch as its 7 days out on this run, this pattern we are in could create a weakness over Texas and allow for a tropical aystem to head our way potentially

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