Long range model discussion

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Cpv17
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Re: Long range model discussion

Post by Cpv17 » Tue Aug 23, 2022 10:48 am

We need to start paying attention to a low riding wave that appears to come off the coast of South America near Guyana or Venezuela. It’s beginning to get some operational support and has fairly decent ensemble support as well. Many ensemble members have this going into the Gulf and a few of them are on the strong side.

Stratton20
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Re: Long range model discussion

Post by Stratton20 » Tue Aug 23, 2022 10:52 am

Cpv17 yep, i especially noticed an uptick on the EPS for the wave in that area, definitely something worth monitoring closesly

Cpv17
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Re: Long range model discussion

Post by Cpv17 » Tue Aug 23, 2022 10:57 am

Stratton20 wrote:
Tue Aug 23, 2022 10:52 am
Cpv17 yep, i especially noticed an uptick on the EPS for the wave in that area, definitely something worth monitoring closesly
Yeah it looks like the tropics are finally waking up. This run of the GFS and ICON are going to get peoples attention.

Stratton20
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Re: Long range model discussion

Post by Stratton20 » Tue Aug 23, 2022 10:58 am

GFS has a 973 MB hurricane so far at hour 174, it will be interesting to see what the Euro shows given its ensembles like this wave

Cpv17
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Re: Long range model discussion

Post by Cpv17 » Tue Aug 23, 2022 11:03 am

Stratton20 wrote:
Tue Aug 23, 2022 10:58 am
GFS has a 973 MB hurricane so far at hour 174, it will be interesting to see what the Euro shows given its ensembles like this wave
It’s going to bomb out in the Gulf on this run of the GFS.

Stratton20
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Re: Long range model discussion

Post by Stratton20 » Tue Aug 23, 2022 11:15 am

Cpv17 what an ugly run😬😬 bombs out at 947 MB making landfall at the Florida Peninsula, this is definitely one to watch

Cpv17
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Re: Long range model discussion

Post by Cpv17 » Tue Aug 23, 2022 11:22 am

Stratton20 wrote:
Tue Aug 23, 2022 11:15 am
Cpv17 what an ugly run😬😬 bombs out at 947 MB making landfall at the Florida Peninsula, this is definitely one to watch
Oh yeah! The GEFS and the Euro/EPS are going to be really interesting.

Cpv17
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Re: Long range model discussion

Post by Cpv17 » Tue Aug 23, 2022 1:47 pm

The wet pattern continues:

Image

Stratton20
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Re: Long range model discussion

Post by Stratton20 » Tue Aug 23, 2022 2:11 pm

Cpv17 12z Eps guidance 👀👀
Attachments
1071D2FE-1388-4192-957A-D7855C21BCD2.png

Cpv17
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Re: Long range model discussion

Post by Cpv17 » Tue Aug 23, 2022 6:23 pm

The 18z GEFS has many members as hurricanes going anywhere from Mexico to the FL panhandle. Some of the members are showing majors. Rather alarming run of the GEFS.

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