Long range model discussion

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Stratton20
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Re: Long range model discussion

Post by Stratton20 » Tue Aug 23, 2022 6:28 pm

Cpv17 Yep we really need to watch this one closesly, has a favorable environment in the caribbean

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Re: Long range model discussion

Post by Cpv17 » Tue Aug 23, 2022 6:33 pm

Stratton20 wrote:
Tue Aug 23, 2022 6:28 pm
Cpv17 Yep we really need to watch this one closesly, has a favorable environment in the caribbean
Yeah this is the most alarming run of any ensemble I’ve seen all year.

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Re: Long range model discussion

Post by Stratton20 » Tue Aug 23, 2022 6:35 pm

Cpv17 yep, most 18z GEFS members that are really strong, go further west towards texas…. Its going to be a very interesting week of model watching to say the least

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Re: Long range model discussion

Post by Cpv17 » Tue Aug 23, 2022 7:53 pm

18z Euro is a tiny bit stronger than the 12z.

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Re: Long range model discussion

Post by Stratton20 » Tue Aug 23, 2022 7:57 pm

Cpv17 yep the vorticity is a little more consolidated, tonights 00z runs are going to be very interesting indeed

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Re: Long range model discussion

Post by Cpv17 » Tue Aug 23, 2022 8:06 pm

18z GEFS ensembles:

Image

Stratton20
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Re: Long range model discussion

Post by Stratton20 » Tue Aug 23, 2022 8:11 pm

Cpv17 seeing all those stronger members in the western gulf is alarming

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Re: Long range model discussion

Post by Stratton20 » Wed Aug 24, 2022 2:17 pm

Still decent support from the 12z EPS fwiw
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Re: Long range model discussion

Post by Cpv17 » Wed Aug 24, 2022 2:26 pm

Stratton20 wrote:
Wed Aug 24, 2022 2:17 pm
Still decent support from the 12z EPS fwiw
Yeah it’s still worth paying attention to and so is the one about to exit Africa.

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Re: Long range model discussion

Post by Stratton20 » Wed Aug 24, 2022 2:31 pm

Cpv17 plus its no surprise our caribbean disturbance isnt doing much right now, dealing with dry air, and that’s probably why the - 12z models backed off on development , i suspect once the wave gets into the western caribbean where the environment is much more conducive, models might start to show development again

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