Long range model discussion

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Stratton20
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sambucol cant go into specifics other than the potential is there for much colder weather sometime around the 23th and beyond, even march is starting to look like it could be cold, you will probably see some crazy runs of the GFS going around on social media going forward, these SSWE’s are pretty hard for the models to catch on to
Cpv17
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Stratton20 wrote: Sat Feb 11, 2023 2:18 pm sambucol cant go into specifics other than the potential is there for much colder weather sometime around the 23th and beyond, even march is starting to look like it could be cold, you will probably see some crazy runs of the GFS going around on social media going forward, these SSWE’s are pretty hard for the models to catch on to
The CPC has above average temps for us during that timeframe lol
Stratton20
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Cpv17 im definitely not buying that, the GEFS and EPS are colder, even the normally warm op Euro is trending colder, I dont expect the CPC to trend colder immediately, that i think they will over time, or I could just be completely wrong, either way hard to ignore all that cold air building up to our north in the ensembles

Also the SE Ridge is going to be a big factor here, it could help us or hurt us in regard to the cold, lots of moving players here
Cpv17
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Stratton20 wrote: Sat Feb 11, 2023 2:45 pm Cpv17 im definitely not buying that, the GEFS and EPS are colder, even the normally warm op Euro is trending colder, I dont expect the CPC to trend colder immediately, that i think they will over time, or I could just be completely wrong, either way hard to ignore all that cold air building up to our north in the ensembles

Also the SE Ridge is going to be a big factor here, it could help us or hurt us in regard to the cold, lots of moving players here
Yeah, the CPC looks to be thinking -PNA. Hardly any cold air east of the Rockies.
Stratton20
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Cpv17 im hearing the PNA might go neutral to slightly positive after the 20th or so, challenging forecast ahead as usual, but that operational GFS, has kinda got my attention at least somewhat haha
Cpv17
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Stratton20 wrote: Sat Feb 11, 2023 3:06 pm Cpv17 im hearing the PNA might go neutral to slightly positive after the 20th or so, challenging forecast ahead as usual, but that operational GFS, has kinda got my attention at least somewhat haha
For now I’d bet against any cold unless it shows it within 5-7 days but that’s good the ensembles look good. Not sure if they do or not. Just taking your word for it. I haven’t really been paying much attention to the models the past couple weeks. My hearts just not into it that much lately. Probably heard too many times about cold air coming and nothing has ever really happened of significance. Kinda over it at this point. Probably why I’m not paying much attention anymore.
Stratton20
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Cpv17 I mean the euro weeklies are showing cold air extending into the first couple weeks of march, so their definitely is plenty of evidence that winter* probably* isnt over yet, but i totally understand , this winter has been fairly uneventful so far, could be a lot worse though, at least the SE ridge hasnt been sitting over us like it has along the east coast all winter, heck NYC has only recorded like 0.5 inch of snow this season, definitely could be a lot worse
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sambucol
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If I recall correctly, Larry Cosgrove had mentioned a while back that cold would go into March.
Stratton20
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sambucol that is correct and now guidance is starting to hint at thag
Stratton20
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Global models are beginning to get very interesting, the GFS, CMC and Euro all have a baja upper level low moving across the desert southwest and into texas by the 21st, obviously far out, but its interesting to see they show this, they also have some arctic air to work with potentially, cant say anything more than just speculation, but it could be an interesting week ahead
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Stratton20
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Man that is some very cold air building on the CMC and Euro runs👀👀🥶🥶 looks like the SE ridge is going to put up a fight again, but eventually the arctic air will win out as it undercuts the ridge
Stratton20
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18z GFS does suppress the SE ridge somewhat, and the arctic air alrhough modified does reach down to the gulf coast, highs in the 40’s next friday
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tireman4
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For entertainment purposes only...
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Stratton20
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tireman4 interesting enough even though the 06z GFS backed off, its been showing up on the GFS the past several days, CMC kinda as well, could be a pretty dynamic storm system on the table
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sambucol
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I’m hoping we get another arctic air mass down here in SETX before spring is here.
Stratton20
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Sambucol well the CMC says wish granted hahaha
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sambucol
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Excellent!!!!
Stratton20
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lol 06z gfs
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Thundersleet
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Alright, come to papa.
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sambucol
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Are we getting some cold in SETX before spring?
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