Long range model discussion

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
kyzsl51
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Stratton20 wrote: Wed Mar 01, 2023 2:06 pm Cpv17 yeah its got the attention of POW ponder, would this be something? A snowy start to spring break in SE texas😁😁, MJO going into PHASE 8 definitely does support the chance for a southern slider event
I love how how your holding on to whatever hope of anymore cool weather that comes down this way! It will definitely be a long summer lol
Stratton20
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kyzsl51 not hoping, colder weather is coming, their is way more than enough support and evidence to back up my comments, and again a warmer than normal february doesnt mean the summer is going to be brutal especially with El Nino coming back
Cpv17
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Stratton20 wrote: Wed Mar 01, 2023 9:57 pm kyzsl51 not hoping, colder weather is coming, their is way more than enough support and evidence to back up my comments, and again a warmer than normal february doesnt mean the summer is going to be brutal especially with El Nino coming back
Yeah it’s definitely going to get cold. The question is how cold?
Stratton20
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Cpv17 thats the big question, i will say the EPS and the operational euro are by far the most aggressive with the cold air, GEFS still chilly but not as cold, GEPS still chilly as well, at least we have agreement, it will be interesting to see the overnight Euro, that 12z run blew up all over social media haha
the CPC has over half the state in at least a slight chance for hazardous temperatures between the 9-14th
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sambucol
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Yep. Pow Ponder is talking about it!
kyzsl51
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Hope so! would love one more weekend with lows in the 30s and highs in the 50s!
Stratton20
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kyzsl51 might be around longer than a weekend, pattern looks to lock in for at least 5-7 days maybe longer
Stratton20
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Lol the 18z GFS has a rain/snow mix on the 13/14th for prta of central and se texas, interesting pattern ahead
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sambucol
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That would be awesome!!!
Stratton20
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That CPC outlook is going to bust miserably
Stratton20
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Wtf 00z GFS next monday-tuesday… Crazy thing is it has pretty good ensemble support….
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Thundersleet
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As in good computer model agreement to back it up, Stratton20?
Stratton20
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Euro has a rain/snow mix for some far sw se texas counties, but the operational models for the most part dont agree with their ensembles , the eps is by far the most “ aggressive with snow potential here “ , most likely scenario is the snow falls out in west texas, id only give about a 5% chance that we see any snowflakes here, im not getting my hopes up, just found it interesting that esnembles are aggressive on march snow in texas, plus even if we do see anything the temperatures are going to be so marginal that any snowflake will melt on contact, no accumulations
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don
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The latest snowfall on record for central Texas and northern potions of SE Texas was April 7, 2007 when 1-4 inches of snow accumulated.I remember that day well.
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MontgomeryCoWx
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don wrote: Wed Mar 15, 2023 11:25 am The latest snowfall on record for central Texas and northern potions of SE Texas was April 7, 2007 when 1-4 inches of snow accumulated.I remember that day well.
My hometown got 5 inches that day.
Team #NeverSummer
Stratton20
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Wow April 7th? Thats nuts, i knew its possible to get snow this far south in march but april? That must have been one heck of a dynamic system to produce snow, also some of the GEFS members do suggest maybe some flurries make it into our region, though the EPS is far more aggressive with that idea
Iceresistance
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Looks like that Far West Texas is going to get the snow
Stratton20
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Can we skip to next winter please? Not looking forward to the next 5 months of hell like weather haha
Stratton20
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Both the Euro and GFS are trending much wetter in the medium/long range fwiw
Iceresistance
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Stratton20 wrote: Thu Apr 13, 2023 6:16 pm Both the Euro and GFS are trending much wetter in the medium/long range fwiw
And more Supercells for me...
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