Long range model discussion

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Stratton20
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Re: Long range model discussion

Post by Stratton20 » Sun Mar 12, 2023 10:54 pm

Wtf 00z GFS next monday-tuesday… Crazy thing is it has pretty good ensemble support….
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Thundersleet
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Re: Long range model discussion

Post by Thundersleet » Wed Mar 15, 2023 8:52 am

As in good computer model agreement to back it up, Stratton20?

Stratton20
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Re: Long range model discussion

Post by Stratton20 » Wed Mar 15, 2023 9:02 am

Euro has a rain/snow mix for some far sw se texas counties, but the operational models for the most part dont agree with their ensembles , the eps is by far the most “ aggressive with snow potential here “ , most likely scenario is the snow falls out in west texas, id only give about a 5% chance that we see any snowflakes here, im not getting my hopes up, just found it interesting that esnembles are aggressive on march snow in texas, plus even if we do see anything the temperatures are going to be so marginal that any snowflake will melt on contact, no accumulations

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don
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Re: Long range model discussion

Post by don » Wed Mar 15, 2023 10:25 am

The latest snowfall on record for central Texas and northern potions of SE Texas was April 7, 2007 when 1-4 inches of snow accumulated.I remember that day well.

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MontgomeryCoWx
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Re: Long range model discussion

Post by MontgomeryCoWx » Wed Mar 15, 2023 11:17 am

don wrote:
Wed Mar 15, 2023 10:25 am
The latest snowfall on record for central Texas and northern potions of SE Texas was April 7, 2007 when 1-4 inches of snow accumulated.I remember that day well.
My hometown got 5 inches that day.
Team #NeverSummer

Stratton20
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Re: Long range model discussion

Post by Stratton20 » Wed Mar 15, 2023 12:29 pm

Wow April 7th? Thats nuts, i knew its possible to get snow this far south in march but april? That must have been one heck of a dynamic system to produce snow, also some of the GEFS members do suggest maybe some flurries make it into our region, though the EPS is far more aggressive with that idea

Iceresistance
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Re: Long range model discussion

Post by Iceresistance » Fri Mar 17, 2023 10:04 am

Looks like that Far West Texas is going to get the snow

Stratton20
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Re: Long range model discussion

Post by Stratton20 » Fri Mar 17, 2023 11:16 am

Can we skip to next winter please? Not looking forward to the next 5 months of hell like weather haha

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Re: Long range model discussion

Post by Stratton20 » Thu Apr 13, 2023 5:16 pm

Both the Euro and GFS are trending much wetter in the medium/long range fwiw

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Re: Long range model discussion

Post by Iceresistance » Thu Apr 13, 2023 5:54 pm

Stratton20 wrote:
Thu Apr 13, 2023 5:16 pm
Both the Euro and GFS are trending much wetter in the medium/long range fwiw
And more Supercells for me...

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