Long range model discussion

[Iceresistance]

The GFS has a strong Hurricane in May in the GoM, the SSTs are fit for something like this!

[Stratton20]

Iceresistance yep! Most of the gulf is at or above 80 degrees already

[cperk]

The 12z GFS has a 969mb hurricane sitting south of the Texas/Louisiana coastline 5/28.

[Stratton20]

cperk thats borderline cat 3 ,it is so far pit but it has been showing up quite a bit on the GFS runs, their is some ensemble support for development around the 20th timeframe, though if we get something to develop, i highly doupt it would be as strong as what the GFS shows, though a favorable phase of the MJO and a CCKW will be passing through around the 20-24th time frame, definitely could kick start something

[cperk]

cperk thats borderline cat 3 ,it is so far pit but it has been showing up quite a bit on the GFS runs, their is some ensemble support for development around the 20th timeframe, though if we get something to develop, i highly doupt it would be as strong as what the GFS shows, though a favorable phase of the MJO and a CCKW will be passing through around the 20-24th time frame, definitely could kick start something

Yeah May hurricanes are rare only 4 have been recorded with hurricane Able in 1951 being the strongest at a category3.

[Stratton20]

cperk yep I dont anticipate a hurricane, but I will say the ensemble support has continued to grow on the GEFS in its 12z run, i did a time stamp of the GEFS at day 7 and day 10, definitely a decent signal for something to get going

[captainbarbossa19]

The 12z Euro has a ridge develop over the Great Lakes and east coast in about a week. If something tries to develop to our south, we would likely be in a favorable position for impact.

[Stratton20]

captainbarbossa19 even though its a weak signal, FWIW the EPS ensemble is also starting to sniff out potential development in the western caribbean/yucatan channel by days 8-10

[Cpv17]

Don’t be too surprised if we see something form over in the EPAC and cross over into the SW Caribbean or BOC. Whatever forms would most likely remain very weak.

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 I think what the GFS and ensembles are picking up on is that tropical wave that came off from africa, thats what i think is what they are suggesting could develop as it gets into the southern caribbean