Long range model discussion

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Cpv17
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12z GFS has over 2 feet of rain near Baffin Bay lol just shows that the potential pattern setting up in July could be conducive for very heavy rains. I’m still hesitant to believe much of a pattern change will be coming. We’ll know a lot more a week from now. Most of that is from another probable phantom CAG that the GFS has but steering currents look weak..so you know how that goes.
Stratton20
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It basically just stalls a hurricane inland for several days, good ole GFS lol
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Models are in unanimous agreement on the death ridge rebuilding and sitting over the state for days after the first week of july, this summer is going down as one of the worst we have had in wuite some time
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MontgomeryCoWx
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Stratton20 wrote: Mon Jul 03, 2023 11:43 am Models are in unanimous agreement on the death ridge rebuilding and sitting over the state for days after the first week of july, this summer is going down as one of the worst we have had in wuite some time
Last Summer and 2011 were much worse. Let’s not be like the media and make something worse than it is. That gets annoying daily.
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Maybe i overreacted, but its still looking bad, the overall long tern weather pattern looks brutal
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Ensembles agree on a weaker death ridge, and they have it anchored more over the western us and not so much texas, that may leave us with at least a daily 20-30% chance of rain for the next several weeks
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don
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MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Mon Jul 03, 2023 2:20 pm
Stratton20 wrote: Mon Jul 03, 2023 11:43 am Models are in unanimous agreement on the death ridge rebuilding and sitting over the state for days after the first week of july, this summer is going down as one of the worst we have had in wuite some time
Last Summer and 2011 were much worse. Let’s not be like the media and make something worse than it is. That gets annoying daily.
Thank you for saying that,completely agree.I've noticed more and more people only posting here to complain about the weather.Then when they finally get the weather they've been looking for its crickets and they "disappear"...The fact that even with the death ridge over us we've been able to squeeze out some rain over the last month.Is far better than what we experienced last summer when it felt like we went months without seeing any significant rain.El Nino is doing its thing,things could be much worse right now.
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MontgomeryCoWx
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don wrote: Thu Jul 06, 2023 4:43 pm
MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Mon Jul 03, 2023 2:20 pm
Stratton20 wrote: Mon Jul 03, 2023 11:43 am Models are in unanimous agreement on the death ridge rebuilding and sitting over the state for days after the first week of july, this summer is going down as one of the worst we have had in wuite some time
Last Summer and 2011 were much worse. Let’s not be like the media and make something worse than it is. That gets annoying daily.
Thank you for saying that,completely agree.I've noticed more and more people only posting here to complain about the weather.Then when they finally get the weather they've been looking for its crickets and they "disappear"...The fact that even with the death ridge over us we've been able to squeeze out some rain over the last month.Is far better than what we experienced last summer when it felt like we went months without seeing any significant rain.El Nino is doing its thing,things could be much worse right now.

Agreed. I think the exaggeration and woe is me behavior is a function of social media and our weak society, particularly my generation and ESPECIALLY Gen Zombies.

I got off all social media a while back because it’s dumbing people down, particularly ones I used to have a lot of respect for.
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srainhoutx
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Thank you folks for bringing up the discussion regarding social media. The truth is before I made the move to NC, we cut off cable and went to strictly streaming. Best move I've ever made. Wx Twitter became so ridiculous, I gave it up too! Facebook is used for family and extended family and good friends and nothing else. After taking an almost 4 year break, I intend to be a bit more active here and get back to keeping it real with weather and completely keeping any hype out of what the weather may bring. I encourage folks to get back to our "roots" and leave the many avenues of un true information behind. Common sense and true and factual information has been our history extending back almost 20 years!
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user:null
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don wrote: Thu Jul 06, 2023 4:43 pmThank you for saying that,completely agree.I've noticed more and more people only posting here to complain about the weather. Then when they finally get the weather they've been looking for its crickets and they "disappear"...The fact that even with the death ridge over us we've been able to squeeze out some rain over the last month. Is far better than what we experienced last summer when it felt like we went months without seeing any significant rain. El Nino is doing its thing,things could be much worse right now.
In fairness though, the complaints aren't just in vacuum: they are actually an expression regarding the sound, logical averison to certain patterns based on similar instances that have occured in the past. I, for one, definitely do not want to ever see a 2011 drought or Feb 2021 winter cold snap ever again: at the very least, it is taking into account livelihoods and well-beings regarding agriculture, biodiversity, cultivation, ecology, infrastructure, etc.

Contrast that with a certain Montgomery County-based poster who really hates warm winter weather, for no other reason than just to complain. Quite unabashed about it too. Quite ironic, especially when you consider that temperatures under 50°F are totally useless regarding the overall landscape endeavors that I described above.

But, there's definitely much to be said about the access to information, and the effects that it can have on well-being. Confirmation bias and other such effects of the psyche definitely are aggravated by constantly checking the models for any "death ridges" and the like: whereas, if not for the weather hobby, one would ordinarily just be going about their day.
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sambucol
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srainhoutx wrote: Thu Jul 06, 2023 7:50 pm Thank you folks for bringing up the discussion regarding social media. The truth is before I made the move to NC, we cut off cable and went to strictly streaming. Best move I've ever made. Wx Twitter became so ridiculous, I gave it up too! Facebook is used for family and extended family and good friends and nothing else. After taking an almost 4 year break, I intend to be a bit more active here and get back to keeping it real with weather and completely keeping any hype out of what the weather may bring. I encourage folks to get back to our "roots" and leave the many avenues of un true information behind. Common sense and true and factual information has been our history extending back almost 20 years!
Glad you’re back!!
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DoctorMu
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srainhoutx wrote: Thu Jul 06, 2023 7:50 pm Thank you folks for bringing up the discussion regarding social media. The truth is before I made the move to NC, we cut off cable and went to strictly streaming. Best move I've ever made. Wx Twitter became so ridiculous, I gave it up too! Facebook is used for family and extended family and good friends and nothing else. After taking an almost 4 year break, I intend to be a bit more active here and get back to keeping it real with weather and completely keeping any hype out of what the weather may bring. I encourage folks to get back to our "roots" and leave the many avenues of un true information behind. Common sense and true and factual information has been our history extending back almost 20 years!
I hope the weather has been great in western NC and the Smokies! Asheville looks like a couple of degrees above normal - I think you all are a few degrees cooler - still. that's low to mid 80s.


May was considerably cooler than last year and June started off well, but then the DR paid us a visit. However, it was not sustained for months and months and months like last year. With some showers over the July 4th week, the grass is green and trees are in good shape.

Tick tock on football season and return of more regular rain to the Brazos Valley.

Time to water and vitamin-ize the trees!
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MontgomeryCoWx
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user:null wrote: Thu Jul 06, 2023 9:13 pm
don wrote: Thu Jul 06, 2023 4:43 pmThank you for saying that,completely agree.I've noticed more and more people only posting here to complain about the weather. Then when they finally get the weather they've been looking for its crickets and they "disappear"...The fact that even with the death ridge over us we've been able to squeeze out some rain over the last month. Is far better than what we experienced last summer when it felt like we went months without seeing any significant rain. El Nino is doing its thing,things could be much worse right now.
In fairness though, the complaints aren't just in vacuum: they are actually an expression regarding the sound, logical averison to certain patterns based on similar instances that have occured in the past. I, for one, definitely do not want to ever see a 2011 drought or Feb 2021 winter cold snap ever again: at the very least, it is taking into account livelihoods and well-beings regarding agriculture, biodiversity, cultivation, ecology, infrastructure, etc.

Contrast that with a certain Montgomery County-based poster who really hates warm winter weather, for no other reason than just to complain. Quite unabashed about it too. Quite ironic, especially when you consider that temperatures under 50°F are totally useless regarding the overall landscape endeavors that I described above.

But, there's definitely much to be said about the access to information, and the effects that it can have on well-being. Confirmation bias and other such effects of the psyche definitely are aggravated by constantly checking the models for any "death ridges" and the like: whereas, if not for the weather hobby, one would ordinarily just be going about their day.
I hate warm winter weather but I don’t whine about it. I do something about it, and that is to spend some of those months in Montana, especially in Summer. I know what the Houston weather seasons are and accept it. I can state a fact without posting a woe is me dramatic post on social media.

There’s a large difference. My biggest issue with warm, particularly HOT weather, was what it did to my body in HS when I was being heavily recruited for collegiate sports. I had a heat stroke and it changed my composition for life. I have a severe aversion to HOT weather. I enjoy being outdoors but not in Summer, unless it’s in a body of water.

I think I’ve shared that with a couple on here, but for me, I hate not being outdoors, at all times, but I have to be wary of that issue.

I’m #NeverSummer and don’t like temps above 70 in Winter because I am a very active triathlete and competitive runner at 41.
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user:null
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MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Fri Jul 07, 2023 11:32 pmI hate warm winter weather but I don’t whine about it. I do something about it, and that is to spend some of those months in Montana, especially in Summer. I know what the Houston weather seasons are and accept it. I can state a fact without posting a woe is me dramatic post on social media.

There’s a large difference. My biggest issue with warm, particularly HOT weather, was what it did to my body in HS when I was being heavily recruited for collegiate sports. I had a heat stroke and it changed my composition for life. I have a severe aversion to HOT weather. I enjoy being outdoors but not in Summer, unless it’s in a body of water.

I think I’ve shared that with a couple on here, but for me, I hate not being outdoors, at all times, but I have to be wary of that issue.

I’m #NeverSummer and don’t like temps above 70 in Winter because I am a very active triathlete and competitive runner at 41.
Very fair and understandable point as well: I apologize as well on my end for my prior post, definitely take back portions of what I said.

I think you are active as well as s2k, where you clash quite a bit with 57: though it may be more facetious ribbing rather than true disagreements.
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MontgomeryCoWx
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user:null wrote: Sat Jul 08, 2023 1:32 pm
MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Fri Jul 07, 2023 11:32 pmI hate warm winter weather but I don’t whine about it. I do something about it, and that is to spend some of those months in Montana, especially in Summer. I know what the Houston weather seasons are and accept it. I can state a fact without posting a woe is me dramatic post on social media.

There’s a large difference. My biggest issue with warm, particularly HOT weather, was what it did to my body in HS when I was being heavily recruited for collegiate sports. I had a heat stroke and it changed my composition for life. I have a severe aversion to HOT weather. I enjoy being outdoors but not in Summer, unless it’s in a body of water.

I think I’ve shared that with a couple on here, but for me, I hate not being outdoors, at all times, but I have to be wary of that issue.

I’m #NeverSummer and don’t like temps above 70 in Winter because I am a very active triathlete and competitive runner at 41.
Very fair and understandable point as well: I apologize as well on my end for my prior post, definitely take back portions of what I said.

I think you are active as well as s2k, where you clash quite a bit with 57: though it may be more facetious ribbing rather than true disagreements.
Yes, I love Chris and his sense of humor. We rib.

No worries!
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DoctorMu
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Yeah, back in the day a lot of coaches didn't provide sufficient (or sometimes any) water or Gatorade.
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srainhoutx
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DoctorMu wrote: Fri Jul 07, 2023 6:25 pm
srainhoutx wrote: Thu Jul 06, 2023 7:50 pm Thank you folks for bringing up the discussion regarding social media. The truth is before I made the move to NC, we cut off cable and went to strictly streaming. Best move I've ever made. Wx Twitter became so ridiculous, I gave it up too! Facebook is used for family and extended family and good friends and nothing else. After taking an almost 4 year break, I intend to be a bit more active here and get back to keeping it real with weather and completely keeping any hype out of what the weather may bring. I encourage folks to get back to our "roots" and leave the many avenues of un true information behind. Common sense and true and factual information has been our history extending back almost 20 years!
I hope the weather has been great in western NC and the Smokies! Asheville looks like a couple of degrees above normal - I think you all are a few degrees cooler - still. that's low to mid 80s.


May was considerably cooler than last year and June started off well, but then the DR paid us a visit. However, it was not sustained for months and months and months like last year. With some showers over the July 4th week, the grass is green and trees are in good shape.

Tick tock on football season and return of more regular rain to the Brazos Valley.

Time to water and vitamin-ize the trees!
We've been blessed with relative "cooler" weather so far this summer. The ever persistent trough over Eastern Canada has kept my highest temperature since far this summer at 83. We had a "cold front " pass through last night with thundershowers and a morning low of 58. Today's high was 73. My Sister and Brother in Law are flying in from Shore Acres on the 28th. They've never been to this part of the world before and we are looking forward to sharing our Mountain Living with them and giving them a break from SE Texas heat and humidity!
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Stratton20
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A buoy off key west has measured a sea surface temperature of 94.5 degrees Fahrenheit, thats absolutely ridiculous
Man thise gulf waters as a whole are just 🥵🥵🥵
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srainhoutx
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Stratton20 wrote: Mon Jul 10, 2023 7:29 pm A buoy off key west has measured a sea surface temperature of 94.5 degrees Fahrenheit, thats absolutely ridiculous
Man thise gulf waters as a whole are just 🥵🥵🥵

Johnson Key is actually in Florida Bay N and E of Key West. Florida Bay in that area is typically only 3 to 4 feet deep.
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Ptarmigan
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MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Fri Jul 07, 2023 11:32 pm
user:null wrote: Thu Jul 06, 2023 9:13 pm
don wrote: Thu Jul 06, 2023 4:43 pmThank you for saying that,completely agree.I've noticed more and more people only posting here to complain about the weather. Then when they finally get the weather they've been looking for its crickets and they "disappear"...The fact that even with the death ridge over us we've been able to squeeze out some rain over the last month. Is far better than what we experienced last summer when it felt like we went months without seeing any significant rain. El Nino is doing its thing,things could be much worse right now.
In fairness though, the complaints aren't just in vacuum: they are actually an expression regarding the sound, logical averison to certain patterns based on similar instances that have occured in the past. I, for one, definitely do not want to ever see a 2011 drought or Feb 2021 winter cold snap ever again: at the very least, it is taking into account livelihoods and well-beings regarding agriculture, biodiversity, cultivation, ecology, infrastructure, etc.

Contrast that with a certain Montgomery County-based poster who really hates warm winter weather, for no other reason than just to complain. Quite unabashed about it too. Quite ironic, especially when you consider that temperatures under 50°F are totally useless regarding the overall landscape endeavors that I described above.

But, there's definitely much to be said about the access to information, and the effects that it can have on well-being. Confirmation bias and other such effects of the psyche definitely are aggravated by constantly checking the models for any "death ridges" and the like: whereas, if not for the weather hobby, one would ordinarily just be going about their day.
I hate warm winter weather but I don’t whine about it. I do something about it, and that is to spend some of those months in Montana, especially in Summer. I know what the Houston weather seasons are and accept it. I can state a fact without posting a woe is me dramatic post on social media.

There’s a large difference. My biggest issue with warm, particularly HOT weather, was what it did to my body in HS when I was being heavily recruited for collegiate sports. I had a heat stroke and it changed my composition for life. I have a severe aversion to HOT weather. I enjoy being outdoors but not in Summer, unless it’s in a body of water.

I think I’ve shared that with a couple on here, but for me, I hate not being outdoors, at all times, but I have to be wary of that issue.

I’m #NeverSummer and don’t like temps above 70 in Winter because I am a very active triathlete and competitive runner at 41.
I prefer cooler weather as it more preferable for starwatching with the telescope.
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