Long range model discussion

[Iceresistance]

The GFS has a strong Hurricane in May in the GoM, the SSTs are fit for something like this!

[Stratton20]

Iceresistance yep! Most of the gulf is at or above 80 degrees already

[cperk]

The 12z GFS has a 969mb hurricane sitting south of the Texas/Louisiana coastline 5/28.

[Stratton20]

cperk thats borderline cat 3 ,it is so far pit but it has been showing up quite a bit on the GFS runs, their is some ensemble support for development around the 20th timeframe, though if we get something to develop, i highly doupt it would be as strong as what the GFS shows, though a favorable phase of the MJO and a CCKW will be passing through around the 20-24th time frame, definitely could kick start something

[cperk]

cperk thats borderline cat 3 ,it is so far pit but it has been showing up quite a bit on the GFS runs, their is some ensemble support for development around the 20th timeframe, though if we get something to develop, i highly doupt it would be as strong as what the GFS shows, though a favorable phase of the MJO and a CCKW will be passing through around the 20-24th time frame, definitely could kick start something

Yeah May hurricanes are rare only 4 have been recorded with hurricane Able in 1951 being the strongest at a category3.

[Stratton20]

cperk yep I dont anticipate a hurricane, but I will say the ensemble support has continued to grow on the GEFS in its 12z run, i did a time stamp of the GEFS at day 7 and day 10, definitely a decent signal for something to get going

[captainbarbossa19]

The 12z Euro has a ridge develop over the Great Lakes and east coast in about a week. If something tries to develop to our south, we would likely be in a favorable position for impact.

[Stratton20]

captainbarbossa19 even though its a weak signal, FWIW the EPS ensemble is also starting to sniff out potential development in the western caribbean/yucatan channel by days 8-10

[Cpv17]

Don’t be too surprised if we see something form over in the EPAC and cross over into the SW Caribbean or BOC. Whatever forms would most likely remain very weak.

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 I think what the GFS and ensembles are picking up on is that tropical wave that came off from africa, thats what i think is what they are suggesting could develop as it gets into the southern caribbean

[Cpv17]

This time of the year and into June we see a lot of crossovers from the EPAC and the Euro seems to be favoring the EPAC right now for possible consolidation/genesis if anything comes out of this. Regardless, at least it’s something to watch.

[Stratton20]

Lol the 18z GFS had too much whisky stalls a cat 4 in the middle of the GOM and just keeps it their haha before eventually heading towards Louisiana

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z ECMWF ensembles suggests the possibility of a Western Caribbean disturbance. We do not discourage discussions of potential tropical mischief on our Forum. There are plenty of folks that monitor our discussions here on Wx Infinity. Carry on...

[DoctorMu]

Just sayin'

[Stratton20]

12z GEFS continues to signal for some early season development around days 7-9, the GFS operational runs are still pretty crazy, EPS still not that aggressive though, still bears watching as a favorable phase of the MJO and an active CCKW will be passing through during that time, could make things interesting

[DoctorMu]

The GFS Fantasy now slams through Gainesville, FL on May 24.

[Cpv17]

The latest superblend rainfall anomaly from the UKMET+ECMWF for the August through October time period is favoring the central Gulf states for a lot of rain. The western Gulf and Texas looks high and dry.

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 that is so far though, id take that with a massive grain of salt

[Cpv17]

Cpv17 that is so far though, id take that with a massive grain of salt

Yeah I know but with how dry it’s been and the feedback loop were stuck in, it wouldn’t surprise me. I could see that verifying.

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 Lets hope not! Its already bad enough in west texas