Long range model discussion

[user:null]

We likely will, with a strengthening el nino, that will force the storm track much further south, and likely a +PNA so the western US looks warmer and drier, while our neck of the woods should be cooler and wetter

If there is a +PNA, which is usually encouraged with El Nino years, that would shunt a greater percentage of cold effects off to the East as opposed to a Texas/South Central focus (ala 2021). The El Nino winters of 2015-2016 ended up being rather mild/warm for this reason.

[Cpv17]

We likely will, with a strengthening el nino, that will force the storm track much further south, and likely a +PNA so the western US looks warmer and drier, while our neck of the woods should be cooler and wetter

If there is a +PNA, which is usually encouraged with El Nino years, that would shunt a greater percentage of cold effects off to the East as opposed to a Texas/South Central focus (ala 2021). The El Nino winters of 2015-2016 ended up being rather mild/warm for this reason.

We’re screwed if it’s too much of a positive PNA. A slightly positive PNA and we should be good. Neutral is the sweet spot.

[user:null]

We’re screwed if it’s too much of a positive PNA. A slightly positive PNA and we should be good. Neutral is the sweet spot.

I'm actually a warm-lover, probably moreso than even wxman57 himself. So what is good for you and others definitely isn't good for me. Especially given recent debacles of 2021, along with the effects of the ice storms earlier this year in Central/North Texas.

BUT ... IF we WERE to have a winter event this year? I much rather it be the December of 08 and 09 type of events: those days in the 40s that cool low enough in the 30s to feature changeover to snow (including some accumulations). The marginality the entire way reduces energy demand, no worries about busted pipes, and it would be a great novelty in contrast to all the doom and gloom in the media/memes regarding TX energy grid.

[Stratton20]

Im seeing an interesting pattern change around or just after thanksgiving, the GFS is especially interesting

[Stratton20]

Interesting long range gfs run lol

[Cpv17]

Interesting long range gfs run lol

Yeah, that’s wild lol

[Stratton20]

GEFS and EPS have alaskan ridging in place during the thanksgiving and beyond time frame, models arent really bullish with cold air right now, but with the ensembles agreeing that their will be ridging in Alaska, I believe this is definitely worth watching

[brazoriatx]

So some cold air maybe for Thanksgiving?

[Stratton20]

More likely after thanksgiving, and its just a possibility right now, you need more than just alaskan ridging, the PNA also has to cooperate, this is something the global modes are going to struggle with for a while, but at least their is growing consensus in the ensemble guidance for some cold air to make its way down here after thanksgiving

[DoctorMu]

Interesting. GFS now pushes most of the cold air east around Thanksgiving. The Canadian does not.

The Euro has two fronts moving through around T-giving. We'll see.