Long range model discussion

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
user:null
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Stratton20 wrote: Thu Jul 20, 2023 5:59 pm We likely will, with a strengthening el nino, that will force the storm track much further south, and likely a +PNA so the western US looks warmer and drier, while our neck of the woods should be cooler and wetter
If there is a +PNA, which is usually encouraged with El Nino years, that would shunt a greater percentage of cold effects off to the East as opposed to a Texas/South Central focus (ala 2021). The El Nino winters of 2015-2016 ended up being rather mild/warm for this reason.
Cpv17
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user:null wrote: Mon Jul 31, 2023 1:57 pm
Stratton20 wrote: Thu Jul 20, 2023 5:59 pm We likely will, with a strengthening el nino, that will force the storm track much further south, and likely a +PNA so the western US looks warmer and drier, while our neck of the woods should be cooler and wetter
If there is a +PNA, which is usually encouraged with El Nino years, that would shunt a greater percentage of cold effects off to the East as opposed to a Texas/South Central focus (ala 2021). The El Nino winters of 2015-2016 ended up being rather mild/warm for this reason.
We’re screwed if it’s too much of a positive PNA. A slightly positive PNA and we should be good. Neutral is the sweet spot.
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Cpv17 wrote: Mon Jul 31, 2023 2:11 pmWe’re screwed if it’s too much of a positive PNA. A slightly positive PNA and we should be good. Neutral is the sweet spot.
I'm actually a warm-lover, probably moreso than even wxman57 himself. So what is good for you and others definitely isn't good for me. Especially given recent debacles of 2021, along with the effects of the ice storms earlier this year in Central/North Texas.

BUT ... IF we WERE to have a winter event this year? I much rather it be the December of 08 and 09 type of events: those days in the 40s that cool low enough in the 30s to feature changeover to snow (including some accumulations). The marginality the entire way reduces energy demand, no worries about busted pipes, and it would be a great novelty in contrast to all the doom and gloom in the media/memes regarding TX energy grid.
Stratton20
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Im seeing an interesting pattern change around or just after thanksgiving, the GFS is especially interesting
Stratton20
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Interesting long range gfs run lol
Cpv17
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Stratton20 wrote: Sat Nov 11, 2023 5:21 pm Interesting long range gfs run lol
Yeah, that’s wild lol
Stratton20
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GEFS and EPS have alaskan ridging in place during the thanksgiving and beyond time frame, models arent really bullish with cold air right now, but with the ensembles agreeing that their will be ridging in Alaska, I believe this is definitely worth watching
brazoriatx
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So some cold air maybe for Thanksgiving?
Stratton20
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More likely after thanksgiving, and its just a possibility right now, you need more than just alaskan ridging, the PNA also has to cooperate, this is something the global modes are going to struggle with for a while, but at least their is growing consensus in the ensemble guidance for some cold air to make its way down here after thanksgiving
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DoctorMu
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Interesting. GFS now pushes most of the cold air east around Thanksgiving. The Canadian does not.

The Euro has two fronts moving through around T-giving. We'll see.
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DoctorMu wrote: Mon Nov 13, 2023 12:41 pm Interesting. GFS now pushes most of the cold air east around Thanksgiving. The Canadian does not.

The Euro has two fronts moving through around T-giving. We'll see.
That’s so far out yet. No telling what will happen. This far out I’d ignore the operationals.
Stratton20
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DoctorMu wouldnt trust the GFS, i would just throw it out, the GEFS does not agree with it
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DoctorMu
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Canadian and Euro proved correct yet again. It looks like extended cool weather. Limited rain chances until the Sunday after T'Giving.
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Looking at some longer range guidance, I’m beginning to be intrigued about the Christmas/New Years timeframe.
Stratton20
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Cpv17 yeah the EPO really tanks, we will see about that though, so far out
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Ptarmigan
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Stratton20 wrote: Tue Nov 21, 2023 1:29 pm Cpv17 yeah the EPO really tanks, we will see about that though, so far out
A tanking East Pacific Oscillation (EPO) increases chance for cold blasts. I have seen negative EPO and positive NAO and cold blasts happening.
Stratton20
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Mid december looks interesting, some of the guidance is showing major warming in the stratosphere, if that verifies, major cold could be on the table after the 2nd week of december, also january and february are shaping up to be very very cold around here based on long range guidance
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sambucol
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Anything like the February 2021 event?

Ice? Pipe busting?
Stratton20
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sambucol wayyy too early to speculate, all i can say is long range guidance has a setup for some real cold weather around here beyond december
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sambucol
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Pow Ponder has an interesting video. https://youtu.be/i-a8JNEfIrg?feature=shared
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