Long range model discussion

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Cpv17
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DoctorMu wrote: Mon Nov 13, 2023 12:41 pm Interesting. GFS now pushes most of the cold air east around Thanksgiving. The Canadian does not.

The Euro has two fronts moving through around T-giving. We'll see.
That’s so far out yet. No telling what will happen. This far out I’d ignore the operationals.
Stratton20
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DoctorMu wouldnt trust the GFS, i would just throw it out, the GEFS does not agree with it
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DoctorMu
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Canadian and Euro proved correct yet again. It looks like extended cool weather. Limited rain chances until the Sunday after T'Giving.
Cpv17
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Looking at some longer range guidance, I’m beginning to be intrigued about the Christmas/New Years timeframe.
Stratton20
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Cpv17 yeah the EPO really tanks, we will see about that though, so far out
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Ptarmigan
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Stratton20 wrote: Tue Nov 21, 2023 1:29 pm Cpv17 yeah the EPO really tanks, we will see about that though, so far out
A tanking East Pacific Oscillation (EPO) increases chance for cold blasts. I have seen negative EPO and positive NAO and cold blasts happening.
Stratton20
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Mid december looks interesting, some of the guidance is showing major warming in the stratosphere, if that verifies, major cold could be on the table after the 2nd week of december, also january and february are shaping up to be very very cold around here based on long range guidance
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sambucol
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Anything like the February 2021 event?

Ice? Pipe busting?
Stratton20
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sambucol wayyy too early to speculate, all i can say is long range guidance has a setup for some real cold weather around here beyond december
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sambucol
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Pow Ponder has an interesting video. https://youtu.be/i-a8JNEfIrg?feature=shared
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DoctorMu
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sambucol wrote: Wed Nov 22, 2023 2:50 pm Pow Ponder has an interesting video. https://youtu.be/i-a8JNEfIrg?feature=shared
Around Christmas could be very interesting indeed.
Stratton20
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First hints of blocking showing up over alaska on this gfs run, bug buildup of cold air in far NW canada, long range, but definitely have to watch it
Stratton20
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Looks like our bowling ball low maybe be the catalyst to a significant change in the weather pattern long term, 18z GFS shows a much colder regime for texas and most of the US after the 15th
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sambucol
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Excellent. Pow has talked about the 15th and after being colder.
Harp1
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Stratton20 wrote: Sat Dec 02, 2023 5:44 pm Looks like our bowling ball low maybe be the catalyst to a significant change in the weather pattern long term, 18z GFS shows a much colder regime for texas and most of the US after the 15th
Let’s hope that trend continues
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DoctorMu
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sambucol wrote: Sat Dec 02, 2023 5:51 pm Excellent. Pow has talked about the 15th and after being colder.
I'm seeing around the 12-13th and beyond for below normal temp. conditions.
Stratton20
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DoctorMu CMC is colder around the 13th with a cutoff low developing, this weather right now is nice, but definitely would love some even colder conditions lol
Stratton20
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Interesting setup in the 9-10 day period at least on the CMC with a digging shortwave, precipitation and some cold air ( not cold enough here on this run) to work with, good setup for a winter storm in the state, GFS has a similar system, but a lack of cold air, just interesting to see though
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MontgomeryCoWx
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My mid to long range temps just went down 5-8 degrees from next week onward
Team #NeverSummer
Stratton20
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Need to watch the 14-16th timeframe next week, ensemble guidance is getting pretty interesting across the state
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