Long range model discussion

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Stratton20
Posts: 4226
Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
Location: College Station, Texas
Contact:

12z CMC gets close to showing a winter storm setup in se texas on valentines day fwiw
User avatar
sambucol
Posts: 1047
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 5:43 pm
Location: Mont Belvieu
Contact:

Stratton20 wrote: Sat Feb 04, 2023 11:06 am 12z CMC gets close to showing a winter storm setup in se texas on valentines day fwiw
YES!!! Hope that verifies!
Stratton20
Posts: 4226
Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
Location: College Station, Texas
Contact:

sambucol we will see, we just started february and some folks are already throwing the towel in saying we are done with winter, I definitely dont believe that at all, I will say the CMC did a fantastic job with our texas ice storm a few days ago,
it was miles ahead of the GFS and Euro both which performed awfully during that event
User avatar
sambucol
Posts: 1047
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 5:43 pm
Location: Mont Belvieu
Contact:

If I recall correctly, it was Valentines Day when the Feb 2021 event started.
Stratton20
Posts: 4226
Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
Location: College Station, Texas
Contact:

sambucol almost! The main winter storm came through on presidents day but we did have some initial precipitation come through on valentines day, the CMC is pretty cold though, we will just have to see how this pattern evolves with multiple troughs digging down over the next 10-12 days
User avatar
sambucol
Posts: 1047
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 5:43 pm
Location: Mont Belvieu
Contact:

Not here. The sleet started on 2/14/21 at my home. I was outside in it trying to finish preps. Even have photos! It definitely arrived 2/14/2021.
Stratton20
Posts: 4226
Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
Location: College Station, Texas
Contact:

long range guidance is hinting at cold air beginning to build in our source region again before starting to get displaced south, this would be after the 15th/16th, but I think winter is definitely not over with us yet
User avatar
sambucol
Posts: 1047
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 5:43 pm
Location: Mont Belvieu
Contact:

Stratton20 wrote: Sun Feb 05, 2023 12:20 pm long range guidance is hinting at cold air beginning to build in our source region again before starting to get displaced south, this would be after the 15th/16th, but I think winter is definitely not over with us yet
Excellent!!! :D
Stratton20
Posts: 4226
Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
Location: College Station, Texas
Contact:

Sambucol ensembles are looking better for cold, I personally think we will see a flip back to colder weather after the 15-16th or so
Cpv17
Posts: 5235
Joined: Fri Aug 31, 2018 1:58 pm
Location: El Campo/Wharton
Contact:

Well ok, the GFS looks a little interesting again. Wasn’t expecting that.
Stratton20
Posts: 4226
Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
Location: College Station, Texas
Contact:

Cpv17 I like that run haha, got a building ridge off the west coast and the SE ridge building along the east, forces that cold air down into the western and central us, also allows troughs to dig much further south, ensembles are ticking in the right direction for cold
Cpv17
Posts: 5235
Joined: Fri Aug 31, 2018 1:58 pm
Location: El Campo/Wharton
Contact:

The 0z GFS has wintry precip over parts of SETX lol
Stratton20
Posts: 4226
Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
Location: College Station, Texas
Contact:

Another fun run haha, though the GEFS is slowly ticking colder with each run, I can see one last big dump or maybe 2 of arctic air before winter is over, it truly is hilarious reading all of these winter is over comments by so called “twitter meteorologists “
User avatar
sambucol
Posts: 1047
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 5:43 pm
Location: Mont Belvieu
Contact:

Cpv17 wrote: Mon Feb 06, 2023 12:06 am The 0z GFS has wintry precip over parts of SETX lol
When?
Stratton20
Posts: 4226
Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
Location: College Station, Texas
Contact:

sambucol saturday the 18th, so definitely or most likely a fantasy run, now if it starts to appear inside of 10 days then. it will be something to watch, but for now just a fantasy run again
Cpv17
Posts: 5235
Joined: Fri Aug 31, 2018 1:58 pm
Location: El Campo/Wharton
Contact:

The 12z GFS is nuts lol
Stratton20
Posts: 4226
Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
Location: College Station, Texas
Contact:

Cpv17 yup haha, i can’t completely rule out another winter storm in Texas just yet, though man im l glad i dont live on the east coast, that SE ridge is feisty this year
Stratton20
Posts: 4226
Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
Location: College Station, Texas
Contact:

18z GFS is still sniffing out some wintry mischief at hour 264, far out but I think it may be on to something,l💁‍♂️
User avatar
Ptarmigan
Statistical Specialist
Statistical Specialist
Posts: 3982
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 7:20 pm
Contact:

Wintry precipitation 11 days from now. Let's see what the other forecast models have.
Stratton20
Posts: 4226
Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
Location: College Station, Texas
Contact:

ptarmigan probably nothing since the GFS is the only one that goes out beyond 240 hours, more than likely another fantasy run, but you never know, sometimes the GFS does get one right from time to time lol
Post Reply
  • Information
  • Who is online

    Users browsing this forum: Ahrefs [Bot] and 95 guests