Long range model discussion

[Stratton20]

captainbarbossa19 yep that will be interesting to see how the wave the EPS shows evolves, also EPS showing some sort of weak system potentially in the gulf next week, thats something to watch as well

[Cpv17]

captainbarbossa19 yep that will be interesting to see how the wave the EPS shows evolves, also EPS showing some sort of weak system potentially in the gulf next week, thats something to watch as well

The stronger the storm the more poleward that would go. A weak storm would most likely just crash into Central America.

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 true, but we will see if the wave can survive its track first, definitely has some obstacles ahead of it, also will see what “may” try to happen in the gulf next week

[Stratton20]

06z GFS showing possible TC genesis next week, we will see if model runs going forward are consistent or not

[Stratton20]

12z GFS hinting at some gulf mischief by around the 24/25th, far out, but it is hurricane season and that is also around the time that a favorable phase of the MJO will be making its return to the Atlantic basin

[Stratton20]

The August 1st-5th time frame might be one to watch, the GFS including its latest 18z run is hinting at some sort of tropical entity in the western GOM, it is far out but just something interesting to “watch”

[captainbarbossa19]

The August 1st-5th time frame might be one to watch, the GFS including its latest 18z run is hinting at some sort of tropical entity in the western GOM, it is far out but just something interesting to “watch”

Yep. It is flip-flopping right now on something. If it starts being consistent, and more models jump on board, I will start paying more attention.

[Stratton20]

captainbarbossa19 3 of the pst 4 runs it has shown something, I will say though even though the euro isnt showing the GFS system, the Euro does indicate on the wind shear anomaly run, below normal wind shear in the GOM during the same time period as the GFS system fwiw, the 12z EPS is also the same as the operational run

[Stratton20]

This is day 10 on the 18z GEFS, maybe something to watch down the road?

[captainbarbossa19]

This is day 10 on the 18z GEFS, maybe something to watch down the road?

Here is the 6z GEFS. Obviously this is too far out, but it is picking up on better conditions soon. Also, not liking the locations.

[Stratton20]

captainbarbossa19 far out for sure but man most of those members are pretty strong, which isn’t surprising mainly because august-september is usually when we get stronger systems conpared to june/july which are more shared and lopsided, definitely something to watch over the next 7-10 days

Edit: 12z GEFS still has a pretty strong signal as well

[Stratton20]

Long range 00z GFS, yes this is going to change a bazillion times, mainly for fun, but it does show us that the Atlantic will be coming to life in a few weeks

[Stratton20]

Lol the 18z GFS is smoking rocks

[Stormlover2020]

Smoking rocks, could be wrong but it’s almost august it hasn’t spit out to many phantom storms in a while, heart of the season is coming up so doesn’t surprise me one bit

[Stratton20]

Stormlove2020 Oh i mean smoking rocks because it kindof just meanders the system around in the GOM while going down to the low 930’s which is cat 5,

[Stratton20]

12z GFS briefly shows a low pressure forming off the coast of Louisiana next week fwiw

[captainbarbossa19]

12z GFS briefly shows a low pressure forming off the coast of Louisiana next week fwiw

My luck it will hit Louisiana and make travel a mess for me heading to Starkville on Friday. I would rather the Gulf hold off until after I move in. Lol

[Stratton20]

captainbarbossa19 on that run the low pretty much traverses the coastline of Louisiana until getting pulled northward around vermillion bay, ICON is further south though

[Stratton20]

12z ICON with a moderate tropical storm around saturday/sunday fwiw

[Pas_Bon]

Stormlove2020 Oh i mean smoking rocks because it kindof just meanders the system around in the GOM while going down to the low 930’s which is cat 5,

Considering the GOM SST's and ENSO forecasts, I wouldn't be completely shocked by this.....