Long range model discussion

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Cpv17
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Re: Long range model discussion

Post by Cpv17 » Mon Jun 06, 2022 9:23 pm

Till the Euro shows something I wouldn’t expect this to get much attention. But with the way the Euro shows genesis you might not see it show anything till we already have a ts developed and even then it would probably only show an open wave lol

Stratton20
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Re: Long range model discussion

Post by Stratton20 » Mon Jun 06, 2022 9:26 pm

Cpv17 isnt the Euro typically the most conservative model in terms of showing some sort of development?

Cpv17
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Re: Long range model discussion

Post by Cpv17 » Mon Jun 06, 2022 10:03 pm

Stratton20 wrote:
Mon Jun 06, 2022 9:26 pm
Cpv17 isnt the Euro typically the most conservative model in terms of showing some sort of development?
It’s the most conservative by a country mile but it’s the one that the majority of people still go by.

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captainbarbossa19
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Re: Long range model discussion

Post by captainbarbossa19 » Mon Jun 06, 2022 10:05 pm

Cpv17 wrote:
Mon Jun 06, 2022 9:23 pm
Till the Euro shows something I wouldn’t expect this to get much attention. But with the way the Euro shows genesis you might not see it show anything till we already have a ts developed and even then it would probably only show an open wave lol
That is true, but it did a decent job with Alex. It really did not develop much until emerging over the Atlantic.

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Re: Long range model discussion

Post by Cpv17 » Mon Jun 06, 2022 10:15 pm

captainbarbossa19 wrote:
Mon Jun 06, 2022 10:05 pm
Cpv17 wrote:
Mon Jun 06, 2022 9:23 pm
Till the Euro shows something I wouldn’t expect this to get much attention. But with the way the Euro shows genesis you might not see it show anything till we already have a ts developed and even then it would probably only show an open wave lol
That is true, but it did a decent job with Alex. It really did not develop much until emerging over the Atlantic.
Remember what the Euro did with Hanna? That was really bad. For whatever reason (it used to not be) the past few years it’s really struggled to sniff out genesis..even just a couple days out.

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Re: Long range model discussion

Post by Stratton20 » Mon Jun 06, 2022 11:49 pm

00z GEFS with a pretty good signal, still has some really strong members, and 00z CMC with a weak tropical storm making landfall in brownsville, operational GFS still not biting yet though
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cperk
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Re: Long range model discussion

Post by cperk » Tue Jun 07, 2022 2:39 pm

Stratton20 wrote:
Mon Jun 06, 2022 11:49 pm
00z GEFS with a pretty good signal, still has some really strong members, and 00z CMC with a weak tropical storm making landfall in brownsville, operational GFS still not biting yet though
Stratton the operational 12Z GFS is now chiming in with a 953mb hurricane barreling down on the Houston/Galveston area around hour 360.

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Re: Long range model discussion

Post by Stratton20 » Tue Jun 07, 2022 2:53 pm

cperk yeah saw that, but i would probably put that in the back burner, what the GFS is doing is just weird

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Re: Long range model discussion

Post by Stratton20 » Tue Jun 07, 2022 5:39 pm

I think what could make this potentially a hard forecast of something tries to develop in about 8-9 days in the caribbean is the CAG, that always seems to be giving models fits as they try to guess which side of the basin vorticity may try to consolidate in, operational runs not buying , but still a decent signal in the 18z GEFS at days 7-8 to at least keep watching
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don
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Re: Long range model discussion

Post by don » Wed Jun 08, 2022 9:26 am

Moderate probability of TC development put out by NOAA.
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