Long range model discussion

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Stratton20
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Re: Long range model discussion

Post by Stratton20 » Wed Jun 08, 2022 9:46 am

Don I will admit Im a little surprised they have a moderate zone in that area, operational models arent showing much and even the ensembles have back off quite a bit

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don
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Re: Long range model discussion

Post by don » Wed Jun 08, 2022 11:31 am

The 12Z GFS for laughs.( I do think though TC genesis is a possibility late next week,but i doubt we'll get hurricane out of it LOL.)
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Screenshot 2022-06-08 at 12-05-46 Models GFS — Pivotal Weather.png

Cpv17
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Re: Long range model discussion

Post by Cpv17 » Wed Jun 08, 2022 12:45 pm

don wrote:
Wed Jun 08, 2022 9:26 am
Moderate probability of TC development put out by NOAA.
With the ridge over us that would squash it way down south and bury it into Tampico or Veracruz.

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Re: Long range model discussion

Post by Stratton20 » Wed Jun 08, 2022 12:56 pm

Cpv17 wait too soon to say that, depends on the orientation of the ridge

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Re: Long range model discussion

Post by Cpv17 » Wed Jun 08, 2022 12:57 pm

Stratton20 wrote:
Wed Jun 08, 2022 12:56 pm
Cpv17 wait too soon to say that, depends on the orientation of the ridge
I’m talking about for next week. GFS has been showing two systems. One next week and one in fantasyland.

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Re: Long range model discussion

Post by Stratton20 » Wed Jun 08, 2022 1:01 pm

CPV17 ah yeah next week, definitely would get wwuashed to that south, man we need that ridge to breakdown, i am not going to enjoy the next 10 days at or above 100 lol

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Re: Long range model discussion

Post by Stratton20 » Wed Jun 08, 2022 1:01 pm

CPV17 ah yeah next week, definitely would get wwuashed to that south, man we need that ridge to breakdown, i am not going to enjoy the next 10 days at or above 100 lol

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Re: Long range model discussion

Post by Cpv17 » Wed Jun 08, 2022 5:48 pm

Joe B thinks thinks the eastern Gulf and the rest of the southeast coast will have 10 storms and the rest of the Gulf from New Orleans on down to Mexico just 4 storms. Quite a difference.

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Re: Long range model discussion

Post by Stratton20 » Wed Jun 08, 2022 5:56 pm

Here is a GIF I made of the 18z GEFS, this is starting to get inside of 10 days(240 hours) on the ensembles , still favors atlantic side, also 12z NAV GEM has a string tropical storm approaching the far northern mexican coast by next wednesday fwiw
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8BE8CE91-3287-4E6E-B14E-96FA8A11B540.png
gfs-ememb_lowlocs_watl_fh0-228.gif

Stormlover2020
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Re: Long range model discussion

Post by Stormlover2020 » Wed Jun 08, 2022 9:03 pm

Joe has always been eastern

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