Long range model discussion

[CRASHWX]

Todays GFS 12 z now NOLA with a retrograde west and heavy rain all the way back to H-town…way out and will change many times

[Stratton20]

12z EPS, support is low but not zero

[don]

FWIW the 12Z ICON for the first time now shows the disturbance in the NW Caribbean the GFS has been developing late next week.It also shows the tropical storm off the Carolinas that the GFS has been developing.Thats a little support for the GFS now, lets see if the CMC and EURO pick up on anything.

[don]

12Z GFS showing a weak tropical storm now instead of a cane.A much more realistic scenario for this time of year.

[Stratton20]

Don even if that doest come to to fruition, we still might have something to watch,

[Stratton20]

06z GEFS with very strong support next week, no other models show anything so im pretty skeptical, that being said it is hard to ignore that kind of support

[Stratton20]

Ive seen alot of crazy long range GFS runs but tonights 00z run takes the cake, stalls a category 4 just offshore the texas coast for several days with hurricane force winds along the coast, just fantasyland, though it does start development this phantom storm in the caribbean at hour 192 so its starting development time frame isnt too far out

[captainbarbossa19]

12z Euro is showing something weak in the GOM by day 10.

[Stratton20]

captainbarbossa19 yep, 18z GFS starting to sniff some possible development in the NW caribbean in the days 7-9 range

[captainbarbossa19]

12z Euro has a system developing in the Caribbean by days 9 and 10. Looks the ridge starts to flatten out over us about that time too. I think that development is quite possible due to anomalous westerlies in the MDR and Caribbean.