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Stratton20
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Cpv17 well our last arctic outbreak wasnt due to a SSWE i believe, I can see why he says this one could be more severe,I cant remember if we had a SSWE last winter but the last one I remember was the one in February of 2021, and we know how that played out
Cpv17
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Stratton20 wrote: Sat Dec 31, 2022 2:47 pm Cpv17 well our last arctic outbreak wasnt due to a SSWE i believe, I can see why he says this one could be more severe,I cant remember if we had a SSWE last winter but the last one I remember was the one in February of 2021, and we know how that played out
Yeah, I believe that’s correct. Last year I don’t remember one occurring.

Interestingly, the GEFS and EPS are now both agreeing on ridging into western/northern Canada and into Alaska in about two weeks.
Stratton20
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Cpv17 yep! Its going to be a step down process but im definitely starting to like what im seeing in terms of ridging, warm weather lovers days are definitely numbered lol
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Ptarmigan
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Cpv17 wrote: Sat Dec 31, 2022 2:25 pm Cosgrove said that he expects the cold later in January or February to be more severe than what we just experienced. That’s a huge risk for him to say imo. I would never say anything like that if I was a met so he must be feeling really confident.
That is a month from now. I hope it is not like 2021.
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sambucol
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Ptarmigan wrote: Sun Jan 01, 2023 8:52 pm
Cpv17 wrote: Sat Dec 31, 2022 2:25 pm Cosgrove said that he expects the cold later in January or February to be more severe than what we just experienced. That’s a huge risk for him to say imo. I would never say anything like that if I was a met so he must be feeling really confident.
That is a month from now. I hope it is not like 2021.
Either here or S2K someone mentioned it (within the last few days) might be historic.
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MontgomeryCoWx
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LARGE sigma SSW underway.
Team #NeverSummer
Cpv17
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MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Sun Jan 01, 2023 9:38 pm LARGE sigma SSW underway.
6 right?
Stratton20
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I dont know what that means, but im assuming thats pretty significant in regards to the SSWE
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MontgomeryCoWx
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Cpv17 wrote: Sun Jan 01, 2023 9:44 pm
MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Sun Jan 01, 2023 9:38 pm LARGE sigma SSW underway.
6 right?
5-6 sigma
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MontgomeryCoWx
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Stratton20 wrote: Sun Jan 01, 2023 9:51 pm I dont know what that means, but im assuming thats pretty significant in regards to the SSWE
That’s a 5-6 standard deviation
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