Long range model discussion

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Cpv17
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Re: Long range model discussion

Post by Cpv17 » Thu May 12, 2022 4:39 pm

This time of the year and into June we see a lot of crossovers from the EPAC and the Euro seems to be favoring the EPAC right now for possible consolidation/genesis if anything comes out of this. Regardless, at least it’s something to watch.

Stratton20
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Re: Long range model discussion

Post by Stratton20 » Thu May 12, 2022 5:28 pm

Lol the 18z GFS had too much whisky😆😆 stalls a cat 4 in the middle of the GOM and just keeps it their haha before eventually heading towards Louisiana

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Re: Long range model discussion

Post by srainhoutx » Thu May 12, 2022 7:56 pm

The 12Z ECMWF ensembles suggests the possibility of a Western Caribbean disturbance. We do not discourage discussions of potential tropical mischief on our Forum. There are plenty of folks that monitor our discussions here on Wx Infinity. Carry on...
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DoctorMu
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Re: Long range model discussion

Post by DoctorMu » Fri May 13, 2022 1:10 am

Just sayin'

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Stratton20
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Re: Long range model discussion

Post by Stratton20 » Fri May 13, 2022 11:43 am

12z GEFS continues to signal for some early season development around days 7-9, the GFS operational runs are still pretty crazy, EPS still not that aggressive though, still bears watching as a favorable phase of the MJO and an active CCKW will be passing through during that time, could make things interesting
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DoctorMu
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Re: Long range model discussion

Post by DoctorMu » Fri May 13, 2022 6:38 pm

The GFS Fantasy now slams through Gainesville, FL on May 24.

Cpv17
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Re: Long range model discussion

Post by Cpv17 » Fri May 13, 2022 10:34 pm

The latest superblend rainfall anomaly from the UKMET+ECMWF for the August through October time period is favoring the central Gulf states for a lot of rain. The western Gulf and Texas looks high and dry.

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Re: Long range model discussion

Post by Stratton20 » Fri May 13, 2022 11:23 pm

Cpv17 that is so far though, id take that with a massive grain of salt

Cpv17
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Re: Long range model discussion

Post by Cpv17 » Fri May 13, 2022 11:28 pm

Stratton20 wrote:
Fri May 13, 2022 11:23 pm
Cpv17 that is so far though, id take that with a massive grain of salt
Yeah I know but with how dry it’s been and the feedback loop were stuck in, it wouldn’t surprise me. I could see that verifying.

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Re: Long range model discussion

Post by Stratton20 » Fri May 13, 2022 11:38 pm

Cpv17 Lets hope not! Its already bad enough in west texas

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