Long range model discussion

[Stratton20]

And the 00z euro Kicks off the unofficial start of hurricane season with a weak system approaching the mississippi delta at hour 240, let the long nights of model watching and ridiculous GFS fantasy runs commence!

[Cpv17]

And the 00z euro Kicks off the unofficial start of hurricane season with a weak system approaching the mississippi delta at hour 240, let the long nights of model watching and ridiculous GFS fantasy runs commence!

There’s some ensemble support from both the GFS and Euro but it’s a really weak signal for now.

[Stratton20]

12z EPS has good support for * Potentially * our first tropical system of the season, hope it brings rain to florida cause thise folks need it badly

[Cpv17]

For the heart of hurricane season:

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 yikes

[DoctorMu]

Cpv17 yikes

There will be plenty of El Niño shear. Lots of lemonade (weak systems wandering inland) to keep our grass and trees happy for a change this summer. Fingers crossed.

[Stratton20]

DoctorMu for the most part their should be, but i do think their will be a window of opportunity for development where the shear isnt high, i wouldnt mind a couple of weakt sloppy systems to keep the grass green but i definitely dont want a hurricane either, just gotta watch it

[DoctorMu]

Shear is rockin' already in the GOM and Caribbean.

Weaksauce systems and unfocused rain, FTW. Fingers crossed.

[Stratton20]

we will see, as they say hope for the best but prepare for the worst, all it takes is one tropical disturbance to get into a pocket of lower shear and dry air and its game on, its just a matter of who gets hit, but thats in the august- october timeframe, seems like june-july are almost always dead months with the occasional homegrown system

[Cpv17]

It’s normal for the shear maps to look like that this time of the year.