Long range model discussion

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Pas_Bon
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DoctorMu wrote: Wed May 24, 2023 3:07 pm Shear is rockin' already in the GOM and Caribbean.

Weaksauce systems and unfocused rain, FTW. Fingers crossed.
Looks like it’s finally Oregon’s turn….
Cpv17
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6z GFS has something that comes off the coast of Texas and tries to spin into a weak low that crashes into NOLA in about 9-10 days.
Stratton20
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Cpv17 I just saw that, interesting
Only a handful of members show anything though so not likely to happen, besides if any low does form it will get pushed off to our east
Stratton20
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18z GEFS does have a few members that suggest weak low pressure could spin up in the NW gulf late next week, but not a likely scenario, still a reminder that its getting closer to that time of the year though
Stratton20
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Tropical mischief in the gulf down the road? EPS has a decent single, wont be a problem for us though, just that time of the year though
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Stratton20
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And the first GFS fantasy tropical phantom storms of the season are officially in🤣looking forward to seeing insane runs that will almost never verifiy
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MontgomeryCoWx
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Baseball all day today. Brutal!

Aggies beat Stanford though. Eat it, nerds!
Team #NeverSummer
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snowman65
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Is it fall yet????
Stratton20
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I want whatever the 18z GFS is smoking😂😂
Cpv17
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57 on S2K is already saying it’ll be a quiet season for the Gulf. Surprise surprise.
Stratton20
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Cpv17 always pulling the trigger too fast, im not buying it
Cpv17
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Stratton20 wrote: Thu Jun 08, 2023 6:32 pm Cpv17 always pulling the trigger too fast, im not buying it
Oh I’m not either. I’m to the point where I pretty much ignore most of his posts.
Stratton20
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Cpv17 yeah i think we will have to be on gulf watch quite a few times this season, though the GFS right now is on some serious drugs lol
Stratton20
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I am concerned about an active hurricane season in the atlantic, basin/ gulf , the trade winds are forecast to go ka poof in the pacific over the next few weeks, which slows down EL nino from strengthening, weaker than normal trade winds in the atlantic will help to allow air to converge meaning these tropical waves will be able to hold together longer, also we have not seen this kind of configuration in modern history in an El nino hurricane season but the MDR and most of the atlantic is running way above normal despite el nino being present, also the SAL looks to be weaker this season, mark sudduth summarizes this best in his video today on youtube, definitely leaning towards an active season, such an intriguing setup going forward, its El Nino vs the Atlantic
Stratton20
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The GEFS 18z is pretty aggressive with some tropical mischief🤔🤔 inside of 8 days
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Stratton20
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Loks like the euro is hinting at a broad low entering the BOC around the day 8-9 period, interesting
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DoctorMu
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GFS just deepens the Death Ridge up through June 25. In time (100s of years) the Chihuhuan desert will probably swallow most of Texas.
user:null
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DoctorMu wrote: Thu Jun 15, 2023 6:03 pm GFS just deepens the Death Ridge up through June 25. In time (100s of years) the Chihuhuan desert will probably swallow most of Texas.
Let's say that summers totally dry out permanently. But cold fronts and troughs (and associated precipitation) still come during the cooler season. Then that'd stave of the desertification with more of a "mediterranean climate" (rainfall concentrated in winters with drier summers).
Stratton20
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user:null quite a big change in the 18zGFS at hours 168-192 actually shifts the death ridge and now builds it over lousiana points eastward, leaving us on the return flow side of the high, troughing in the desert southwest starts to erode the ridge and forcing it eastward, very good run
TexasBreeze
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Let's lock in that 18z run it is much more preferable!!!
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