Long range model discussion
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Cpv17 Yep we really need to watch this one closesly, has a favorable environment in the caribbean
Yeah this is the most alarming run of any ensemble I’ve seen all year.Stratton20 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 23, 2022 7:28 pm Cpv17 Yep we really need to watch this one closesly, has a favorable environment in the caribbean
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Cpv17 yep, most 18z GEFS members that are really strong, go further west towards texas…. Its going to be a very interesting week of model watching to say the least
18z Euro is a tiny bit stronger than the 12z.
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Cpv17 yep the vorticity is a little more consolidated, tonights 00z runs are going to be very interesting indeed
18z GEFS ensembles:
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Cpv17 seeing all those stronger members in the western gulf is alarming
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Yeah it’s still worth paying attention to and so is the one about to exit Africa.
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Cpv17 plus its no surprise our caribbean disturbance isnt doing much right now, dealing with dry air, and that’s probably why the - 12z models backed off on development , i suspect once the wave gets into the western caribbean where the environment is much more conducive, models might start to show development again