Long range model discussion

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Stratton20
Posts: 4302
Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
Location: College Station, Texas
Contact:

Cpv17 always pulling the trigger too fast, im not buying it
Cpv17
Posts: 5434
Joined: Fri Aug 31, 2018 1:58 pm
Location: El Campo/Wharton
Contact:

Stratton20 wrote: Thu Jun 08, 2023 6:32 pm Cpv17 always pulling the trigger too fast, im not buying it
Oh I’m not either. I’m to the point where I pretty much ignore most of his posts.
Stratton20
Posts: 4302
Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
Location: College Station, Texas
Contact:

Cpv17 yeah i think we will have to be on gulf watch quite a few times this season, though the GFS right now is on some serious drugs lol
Stratton20
Posts: 4302
Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
Location: College Station, Texas
Contact:

I am concerned about an active hurricane season in the atlantic, basin/ gulf , the trade winds are forecast to go ka poof in the pacific over the next few weeks, which slows down EL nino from strengthening, weaker than normal trade winds in the atlantic will help to allow air to converge meaning these tropical waves will be able to hold together longer, also we have not seen this kind of configuration in modern history in an El nino hurricane season but the MDR and most of the atlantic is running way above normal despite el nino being present, also the SAL looks to be weaker this season, mark sudduth summarizes this best in his video today on youtube, definitely leaning towards an active season, such an intriguing setup going forward, its El Nino vs the Atlantic
Stratton20
Posts: 4302
Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
Location: College Station, Texas
Contact:

The GEFS 18z is pretty aggressive with some tropical mischief🤔🤔 inside of 8 days
Attachments
FA0C35A5-73B7-40F7-8CB4-87F3EED64B2C.png
Stratton20
Posts: 4302
Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
Location: College Station, Texas
Contact:

Loks like the euro is hinting at a broad low entering the BOC around the day 8-9 period, interesting
User avatar
DoctorMu
Posts: 5824
Joined: Sun Jun 28, 2015 11:58 am
Location: College Station
Contact:

GFS just deepens the Death Ridge up through June 25. In time (100s of years) the Chihuhuan desert will probably swallow most of Texas.
user:null
Posts: 419
Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2022 7:04 pm
Location: The Land of Sugar
Contact:

DoctorMu wrote: Thu Jun 15, 2023 6:03 pm GFS just deepens the Death Ridge up through June 25. In time (100s of years) the Chihuhuan desert will probably swallow most of Texas.
Let's say that summers totally dry out permanently. But cold fronts and troughs (and associated precipitation) still come during the cooler season. Then that'd stave of the desertification with more of a "mediterranean climate" (rainfall concentrated in winters with drier summers).
Stratton20
Posts: 4302
Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
Location: College Station, Texas
Contact:

user:null quite a big change in the 18zGFS at hours 168-192 actually shifts the death ridge and now builds it over lousiana points eastward, leaving us on the return flow side of the high, troughing in the desert southwest starts to erode the ridge and forcing it eastward, very good run
TexasBreeze
Posts: 944
Joined: Sun Sep 26, 2010 4:46 pm
Location: NW Houston, TX
Contact:

Let's lock in that 18z run it is much more preferable!!!
Cpv17
Posts: 5434
Joined: Fri Aug 31, 2018 1:58 pm
Location: El Campo/Wharton
Contact:

12z GFS has over 2 feet of rain near Baffin Bay lol just shows that the potential pattern setting up in July could be conducive for very heavy rains. I’m still hesitant to believe much of a pattern change will be coming. We’ll know a lot more a week from now. Most of that is from another probable phantom CAG that the GFS has but steering currents look weak..so you know how that goes.
Stratton20
Posts: 4302
Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
Location: College Station, Texas
Contact:

It basically just stalls a hurricane inland for several days, good ole GFS lol
Stratton20
Posts: 4302
Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
Location: College Station, Texas
Contact:

Models are in unanimous agreement on the death ridge rebuilding and sitting over the state for days after the first week of july, this summer is going down as one of the worst we have had in wuite some time
User avatar
MontgomeryCoWx
Posts: 2357
Joined: Wed Dec 14, 2011 4:31 pm
Location: Weimar, TX
Contact:

Stratton20 wrote: Mon Jul 03, 2023 11:43 am Models are in unanimous agreement on the death ridge rebuilding and sitting over the state for days after the first week of july, this summer is going down as one of the worst we have had in wuite some time
Last Summer and 2011 were much worse. Let’s not be like the media and make something worse than it is. That gets annoying daily.
Team #NeverSummer
Stratton20
Posts: 4302
Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
Location: College Station, Texas
Contact:

Maybe i overreacted, but its still looking bad, the overall long tern weather pattern looks brutal
Stratton20
Posts: 4302
Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
Location: College Station, Texas
Contact:

Ensembles agree on a weaker death ridge, and they have it anchored more over the western us and not so much texas, that may leave us with at least a daily 20-30% chance of rain for the next several weeks
User avatar
don
Posts: 2707
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 3:33 pm
Location: Heights
Contact:

MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Mon Jul 03, 2023 2:20 pm
Stratton20 wrote: Mon Jul 03, 2023 11:43 am Models are in unanimous agreement on the death ridge rebuilding and sitting over the state for days after the first week of july, this summer is going down as one of the worst we have had in wuite some time
Last Summer and 2011 were much worse. Let’s not be like the media and make something worse than it is. That gets annoying daily.
Thank you for saying that,completely agree.I've noticed more and more people only posting here to complain about the weather.Then when they finally get the weather they've been looking for its crickets and they "disappear"...The fact that even with the death ridge over us we've been able to squeeze out some rain over the last month.Is far better than what we experienced last summer when it felt like we went months without seeing any significant rain.El Nino is doing its thing,things could be much worse right now.
User avatar
MontgomeryCoWx
Posts: 2357
Joined: Wed Dec 14, 2011 4:31 pm
Location: Weimar, TX
Contact:

don wrote: Thu Jul 06, 2023 4:43 pm
MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Mon Jul 03, 2023 2:20 pm
Stratton20 wrote: Mon Jul 03, 2023 11:43 am Models are in unanimous agreement on the death ridge rebuilding and sitting over the state for days after the first week of july, this summer is going down as one of the worst we have had in wuite some time
Last Summer and 2011 were much worse. Let’s not be like the media and make something worse than it is. That gets annoying daily.
Thank you for saying that,completely agree.I've noticed more and more people only posting here to complain about the weather.Then when they finally get the weather they've been looking for its crickets and they "disappear"...The fact that even with the death ridge over us we've been able to squeeze out some rain over the last month.Is far better than what we experienced last summer when it felt like we went months without seeing any significant rain.El Nino is doing its thing,things could be much worse right now.

Agreed. I think the exaggeration and woe is me behavior is a function of social media and our weak society, particularly my generation and ESPECIALLY Gen Zombies.

I got off all social media a while back because it’s dumbing people down, particularly ones I used to have a lot of respect for.
Team #NeverSummer
User avatar
srainhoutx
Site Admin
Site Admin
Posts: 19622
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
Location: Maggie Valley, NC
Contact:

Thank you folks for bringing up the discussion regarding social media. The truth is before I made the move to NC, we cut off cable and went to strictly streaming. Best move I've ever made. Wx Twitter became so ridiculous, I gave it up too! Facebook is used for family and extended family and good friends and nothing else. After taking an almost 4 year break, I intend to be a bit more active here and get back to keeping it real with weather and completely keeping any hype out of what the weather may bring. I encourage folks to get back to our "roots" and leave the many avenues of un true information behind. Common sense and true and factual information has been our history extending back almost 20 years!
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
user:null
Posts: 419
Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2022 7:04 pm
Location: The Land of Sugar
Contact:

don wrote: Thu Jul 06, 2023 4:43 pmThank you for saying that,completely agree.I've noticed more and more people only posting here to complain about the weather. Then when they finally get the weather they've been looking for its crickets and they "disappear"...The fact that even with the death ridge over us we've been able to squeeze out some rain over the last month. Is far better than what we experienced last summer when it felt like we went months without seeing any significant rain. El Nino is doing its thing,things could be much worse right now.
In fairness though, the complaints aren't just in vacuum: they are actually an expression regarding the sound, logical averison to certain patterns based on similar instances that have occured in the past. I, for one, definitely do not want to ever see a 2011 drought or Feb 2021 winter cold snap ever again: at the very least, it is taking into account livelihoods and well-beings regarding agriculture, biodiversity, cultivation, ecology, infrastructure, etc.

Contrast that with a certain Montgomery County-based poster who really hates warm winter weather, for no other reason than just to complain. Quite unabashed about it too. Quite ironic, especially when you consider that temperatures under 50°F are totally useless regarding the overall landscape endeavors that I described above.

But, there's definitely much to be said about the access to information, and the effects that it can have on well-being. Confirmation bias and other such effects of the psyche definitely are aggravated by constantly checking the models for any "death ridges" and the like: whereas, if not for the weather hobby, one would ordinarily just be going about their day.
Post Reply
  • Information
  • Who is online

    Users browsing this forum: Ahrefs [Bot], Bing [Bot], Semrush [Bot] and 5 guests