Long range model discussion

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 always pulling the trigger too fast, im not buying it

[Cpv17]

Cpv17 always pulling the trigger too fast, im not buying it

Oh I’m not either. I’m to the point where I pretty much ignore most of his posts.

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 yeah i think we will have to be on gulf watch quite a few times this season, though the GFS right now is on some serious drugs lol

[Stratton20]

I am concerned about an active hurricane season in the atlantic, basin/ gulf , the trade winds are forecast to go ka poof in the pacific over the next few weeks, which slows down EL nino from strengthening, weaker than normal trade winds in the atlantic will help to allow air to converge meaning these tropical waves will be able to hold together longer, also we have not seen this kind of configuration in modern history in an El nino hurricane season but the MDR and most of the atlantic is running way above normal despite el nino being present, also the SAL looks to be weaker this season, mark sudduth summarizes this best in his video today on youtube, definitely leaning towards an active season, such an intriguing setup going forward, its El Nino vs the Atlantic

[Stratton20]

The GEFS 18z is pretty aggressive with some tropical mischief inside of 8 days

[Stratton20]

Loks like the euro is hinting at a broad low entering the BOC around the day 8-9 period, interesting

[DoctorMu]

GFS just deepens the Death Ridge up through June 25. In time (100s of years) the Chihuhuan desert will probably swallow most of Texas.

[user:null]

GFS just deepens the Death Ridge up through June 25. In time (100s of years) the Chihuhuan desert will probably swallow most of Texas.

Let's say that summers totally dry out permanently. But cold fronts and troughs (and associated precipitation) still come during the cooler season. Then that'd stave of the desertification with more of a "mediterranean climate" (rainfall concentrated in winters with drier summers).

[Stratton20]

user:null quite a big change in the 18zGFS at hours 168-192 actually shifts the death ridge and now builds it over lousiana points eastward, leaving us on the return flow side of the high, troughing in the desert southwest starts to erode the ridge and forcing it eastward, very good run

[TexasBreeze]

Let's lock in that 18z run it is much more preferable!!!