Long range model discussion

[sambucol]

Thank you folks for bringing up the discussion regarding social media. The truth is before I made the move to NC, we cut off cable and went to strictly streaming. Best move I've ever made. Wx Twitter became so ridiculous, I gave it up too! Facebook is used for family and extended family and good friends and nothing else. After taking an almost 4 year break, I intend to be a bit more active here and get back to keeping it real with weather and completely keeping any hype out of what the weather may bring. I encourage folks to get back to our "roots" and leave the many avenues of un true information behind. Common sense and true and factual information has been our history extending back almost 20 years!

Glad you’re back!!

[DoctorMu]

Thank you folks for bringing up the discussion regarding social media. The truth is before I made the move to NC, we cut off cable and went to strictly streaming. Best move I've ever made. Wx Twitter became so ridiculous, I gave it up too! Facebook is used for family and extended family and good friends and nothing else. After taking an almost 4 year break, I intend to be a bit more active here and get back to keeping it real with weather and completely keeping any hype out of what the weather may bring. I encourage folks to get back to our "roots" and leave the many avenues of un true information behind. Common sense and true and factual information has been our history extending back almost 20 years!

I hope the weather has been great in western NC and the Smokies! Asheville looks like a couple of degrees above normal - I think you all are a few degrees cooler - still. that's low to mid 80s.


May was considerably cooler than last year and June started off well, but then the DR paid us a visit. However, it was not sustained for months and months and months like last year. With some showers over the July 4th week, the grass is green and trees are in good shape.

Tick tock on football season and return of more regular rain to the Brazos Valley.

Time to water and vitamin-ize the trees!

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Thank you for saying that,completely agree.I've noticed more and more people only posting here to complain about the weather. Then when they finally get the weather they've been looking for its crickets and they "disappear"...The fact that even with the death ridge over us we've been able to squeeze out some rain over the last month. Is far better than what we experienced last summer when it felt like we went months without seeing any significant rain. El Nino is doing its thing,things could be much worse right now.

In fairness though, the complaints aren't just in vacuum: they are actually an expression regarding the sound, logical averison to certain patterns based on similar instances that have occured in the past. I, for one, definitely do not want to ever see a 2011 drought or Feb 2021 winter cold snap ever again: at the very least, it is taking into account livelihoods and well-beings regarding agriculture, biodiversity, cultivation, ecology, infrastructure, etc.

Contrast that with a certain Montgomery County-based poster who really hates warm winter weather, for no other reason than just to complain. Quite unabashed about it too. Quite ironic, especially when you consider that temperatures under 50°F are totally useless regarding the overall landscape endeavors that I described above.

But, there's definitely much to be said about the access to information, and the effects that it can have on well-being. Confirmation bias and other such effects of the psyche definitely are aggravated by constantly checking the models for any "death ridges" and the like: whereas, if not for the weather hobby, one would ordinarily just be going about their day.

I hate warm winter weather but I don’t whine about it. I do something about it, and that is to spend some of those months in Montana, especially in Summer. I know what the Houston weather seasons are and accept it. I can state a fact without posting a woe is me dramatic post on social media.

There’s a large difference. My biggest issue with warm, particularly HOT weather, was what it did to my body in HS when I was being heavily recruited for collegiate sports. I had a heat stroke and it changed my composition for life. I have a severe aversion to HOT weather. I enjoy being outdoors but not in Summer, unless it’s in a body of water.

I think I’ve shared that with a couple on here, but for me, I hate not being outdoors, at all times, but I have to be wary of that issue.

I’m #NeverSummer and don’t like temps above 70 in Winter because I am a very active triathlete and competitive runner at 41.

[user:null]

I hate warm winter weather but I don’t whine about it. I do something about it, and that is to spend some of those months in Montana, especially in Summer. I know what the Houston weather seasons are and accept it. I can state a fact without posting a woe is me dramatic post on social media.

There’s a large difference. My biggest issue with warm, particularly HOT weather, was what it did to my body in HS when I was being heavily recruited for collegiate sports. I had a heat stroke and it changed my composition for life. I have a severe aversion to HOT weather. I enjoy being outdoors but not in Summer, unless it’s in a body of water.

I think I’ve shared that with a couple on here, but for me, I hate not being outdoors, at all times, but I have to be wary of that issue.

I’m #NeverSummer and don’t like temps above 70 in Winter because I am a very active triathlete and competitive runner at 41.

Very fair and understandable point as well: I apologize as well on my end for my prior post, definitely take back portions of what I said.

I think you are active as well as s2k, where you clash quite a bit with 57: though it may be more facetious ribbing rather than true disagreements.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

I hate warm winter weather but I don’t whine about it. I do something about it, and that is to spend some of those months in Montana, especially in Summer. I know what the Houston weather seasons are and accept it. I can state a fact without posting a woe is me dramatic post on social media.

There’s a large difference. My biggest issue with warm, particularly HOT weather, was what it did to my body in HS when I was being heavily recruited for collegiate sports. I had a heat stroke and it changed my composition for life. I have a severe aversion to HOT weather. I enjoy being outdoors but not in Summer, unless it’s in a body of water.

I think I’ve shared that with a couple on here, but for me, I hate not being outdoors, at all times, but I have to be wary of that issue.

I’m #NeverSummer and don’t like temps above 70 in Winter because I am a very active triathlete and competitive runner at 41.

Very fair and understandable point as well: I apologize as well on my end for my prior post, definitely take back portions of what I said.

I think you are active as well as s2k, where you clash quite a bit with 57: though it may be more facetious ribbing rather than true disagreements.

Yes, I love Chris and his sense of humor. We rib.

No worries!

[DoctorMu]

Yeah, back in the day a lot of coaches didn't provide sufficient (or sometimes any) water or Gatorade.

[srainhoutx]

Thank you folks for bringing up the discussion regarding social media. The truth is before I made the move to NC, we cut off cable and went to strictly streaming. Best move I've ever made. Wx Twitter became so ridiculous, I gave it up too! Facebook is used for family and extended family and good friends and nothing else. After taking an almost 4 year break, I intend to be a bit more active here and get back to keeping it real with weather and completely keeping any hype out of what the weather may bring. I encourage folks to get back to our "roots" and leave the many avenues of un true information behind. Common sense and true and factual information has been our history extending back almost 20 years!

I hope the weather has been great in western NC and the Smokies! Asheville looks like a couple of degrees above normal - I think you all are a few degrees cooler - still. that's low to mid 80s.


May was considerably cooler than last year and June started off well, but then the DR paid us a visit. However, it was not sustained for months and months and months like last year. With some showers over the July 4th week, the grass is green and trees are in good shape.

Tick tock on football season and return of more regular rain to the Brazos Valley.

Time to water and vitamin-ize the trees!

We've been blessed with relative "cooler" weather so far this summer. The ever persistent trough over Eastern Canada has kept my highest temperature since far this summer at 83. We had a "cold front " pass through last night with thundershowers and a morning low of 58. Today's high was 73. My Sister and Brother in Law are flying in from Shore Acres on the 28th. They've never been to this part of the world before and we are looking forward to sharing our Mountain Living with them and giving them a break from SE Texas heat and humidity!

[Stratton20]

A buoy off key west has measured a sea surface temperature of 94.5 degrees Fahrenheit, thats absolutely ridiculous
Man thise gulf waters as a whole are just 🥵🥵🥵

[srainhoutx]

A buoy off key west has measured a sea surface temperature of 94.5 degrees Fahrenheit, thats absolutely ridiculous
Man thise gulf waters as a whole are just 🥵🥵🥵

Johnson Key is actually in Florida Bay N and E of Key West. Florida Bay in that area is typically only 3 to 4 feet deep.

[Ptarmigan]

Thank you for saying that,completely agree.I've noticed more and more people only posting here to complain about the weather. Then when they finally get the weather they've been looking for its crickets and they "disappear"...The fact that even with the death ridge over us we've been able to squeeze out some rain over the last month. Is far better than what we experienced last summer when it felt like we went months without seeing any significant rain. El Nino is doing its thing,things could be much worse right now.

In fairness though, the complaints aren't just in vacuum: they are actually an expression regarding the sound, logical averison to certain patterns based on similar instances that have occured in the past. I, for one, definitely do not want to ever see a 2011 drought or Feb 2021 winter cold snap ever again: at the very least, it is taking into account livelihoods and well-beings regarding agriculture, biodiversity, cultivation, ecology, infrastructure, etc.

Contrast that with a certain Montgomery County-based poster who really hates warm winter weather, for no other reason than just to complain. Quite unabashed about it too. Quite ironic, especially when you consider that temperatures under 50°F are totally useless regarding the overall landscape endeavors that I described above.

But, there's definitely much to be said about the access to information, and the effects that it can have on well-being. Confirmation bias and other such effects of the psyche definitely are aggravated by constantly checking the models for any "death ridges" and the like: whereas, if not for the weather hobby, one would ordinarily just be going about their day.

I hate warm winter weather but I don’t whine about it. I do something about it, and that is to spend some of those months in Montana, especially in Summer. I know what the Houston weather seasons are and accept it. I can state a fact without posting a woe is me dramatic post on social media.

There’s a large difference. My biggest issue with warm, particularly HOT weather, was what it did to my body in HS when I was being heavily recruited for collegiate sports. I had a heat stroke and it changed my composition for life. I have a severe aversion to HOT weather. I enjoy being outdoors but not in Summer, unless it’s in a body of water.

I think I’ve shared that with a couple on here, but for me, I hate not being outdoors, at all times, but I have to be wary of that issue.

I’m #NeverSummer and don’t like temps above 70 in Winter because I am a very active triathlete and competitive runner at 41.

I prefer cooler weather as it more preferable for starwatching with the telescope.

[Stratton20]

Models look pretty boring even in the long range, with the exception of the CMC showing a little tropical mischief in the GOM in about 10 days, but its the canadian model lol

[Stratton20]

This winter could get interesting

[sambucol]

I’m down with that, Stratton!!! Make it so!!!

[Cpv17]

This winter could get interesting

JB has been hinting at this for a while now on his Twitter.

[sambucol]

I hope we have a cold and wet winter. This heat is just unbearable.

[Stratton20]

We likely will, with a strengthening el nino, that will force the storm track much further south, and likely a +PNA so the western US looks warmer and drier, while our neck of the woods should be cooler and wetter

[Ptarmigan]

This winter could get interesting

Nice to see some snow for a change.

[Stratton20]

If this verifies for our winter… Oh boy

[don]

With the developing El Nino,could see Gulf Lows galore next Fall/Winter.

[sambucol]

That’s looking like a colder than normal winter, correct? And maybe an ice apocalypse with some snow or two? I’m hoping so!!