Long range model discussion

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Cpv17
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I think eventually we’ll get something to form in the western Caribbean but I don’t think it’s going to be from this. Look for something maybe in the second week of June.
TexasBreeze
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Looks like the gfs is going to produce a tropical system every run and the tracks everywhere in the Gulf. Phantom systems since the time is always very late in the model.
Stratton20
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I wouldnt worry about the GFS, most model guidance buries whatever tries to form into central america, though you can never say 100% that it cant get into the gulf so ill just keep a weary eye just in case something changes , the background environment is not very favorable yet, but even a weak sloppy system can be a prolific rain maker
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DoctorMu
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I haven't been over to S2K yet, but there's a lot of gyre conversation around, focusing on the Bay of Campeche and western Caribbean.
Stratton20
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DoctorMU based on what im seeing, their are a few EPS and GEFS members that do try to get something going in the BOC, but most keep whatever tries to form near central america
Cpv17
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If anything comes of this, it’ll probably be in the EPAC.
Cpv17
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Interesting read for anyone that wants to read it.

https://currently.att.yahoo.com/news/ba ... 53675.html
Stratton20
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Cpv17 I saw that, definitely could be scary
Stratton20
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12z CMC sniffing out a weak area of low pressure next weekend? Could be from the tropical wave in the S.Caribbean, created a GIF to show this
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gem_z500_mslp_watl_fh24-240.gif
Cpv17
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Long range EPS and GEFS are in agreement that we might need to watch the western Caribbean in the first week of June.
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