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Re: Long range model discussion

Posted: Thu May 12, 2022 5:39 pm
by Cpv17
This time of the year and into June we see a lot of crossovers from the EPAC and the Euro seems to be favoring the EPAC right now for possible consolidation/genesis if anything comes out of this. Regardless, at least it’s something to watch.

Re: Long range model discussion

Posted: Thu May 12, 2022 6:28 pm
by Stratton20
Lol the 18z GFS had too much whisky😆😆 stalls a cat 4 in the middle of the GOM and just keeps it their haha before eventually heading towards Louisiana

Re: Long range model discussion

Posted: Thu May 12, 2022 8:56 pm
by srainhoutx
The 12Z ECMWF ensembles suggests the possibility of a Western Caribbean disturbance. We do not discourage discussions of potential tropical mischief on our Forum. There are plenty of folks that monitor our discussions here on Wx Infinity. Carry on...

Re: Long range model discussion

Posted: Fri May 13, 2022 2:10 am
by DoctorMu
Just sayin'

Image

Re: Long range model discussion

Posted: Fri May 13, 2022 12:43 pm
by Stratton20
12z GEFS continues to signal for some early season development around days 7-9, the GFS operational runs are still pretty crazy, EPS still not that aggressive though, still bears watching as a favorable phase of the MJO and an active CCKW will be passing through during that time, could make things interesting

Re: Long range model discussion

Posted: Fri May 13, 2022 7:38 pm
by DoctorMu
The GFS Fantasy now slams through Gainesville, FL on May 24.

Re: Long range model discussion

Posted: Fri May 13, 2022 11:34 pm
by Cpv17
The latest superblend rainfall anomaly from the UKMET+ECMWF for the August through October time period is favoring the central Gulf states for a lot of rain. The western Gulf and Texas looks high and dry.

Re: Long range model discussion

Posted: Sat May 14, 2022 12:23 am
by Stratton20
Cpv17 that is so far though, id take that with a massive grain of salt

Re: Long range model discussion

Posted: Sat May 14, 2022 12:28 am
by Cpv17
Stratton20 wrote: Sat May 14, 2022 12:23 am Cpv17 that is so far though, id take that with a massive grain of salt
Yeah I know but with how dry it’s been and the feedback loop were stuck in, it wouldn’t surprise me. I could see that verifying.

Re: Long range model discussion

Posted: Sat May 14, 2022 12:38 am
by Stratton20
Cpv17 Lets hope not! Its already bad enough in west texas

Re: Long range model discussion

Posted: Sat May 14, 2022 12:41 am
by Cpv17
Stratton20 wrote: Sat May 14, 2022 12:38 am Cpv17 Lets hope not! Its already bad enough in west texas
Where I live we’re right on the border between severe and extreme drought. Luckily you guys up there have had some decent rains lately but it won’t take long before my area spreads north.

Re: Long range model discussion

Posted: Sat May 14, 2022 12:55 am
by Stratton20
Cpv17 I hate to say it but it might take a weak tropical system (or at least the remnant moisture from one) to put a good dent in drought conditions out their

Re: Long range model discussion

Posted: Sat May 14, 2022 12:26 pm
by Stratton20
Whatever forms in the caribbean (if anything at all) will not be a threat to us at all, this is likely an eastern gulf threat if anything does form

Re: Long range model discussion

Posted: Sat May 14, 2022 3:17 pm
by Stratton20
12z EPS, a few more members are showing something now, some take whatever forms north into the eastern gulf while some take it into the BOC, definitely will be an interesting week ahead

Re: Long range model discussion

Posted: Mon May 16, 2022 2:22 pm
by Stratton20
12z Euro, tries to develope a weak system in the BOC, on this run ridging pretty much keeps it confined to the BOC, but something to watch, EPS ensembles come out in an hour, will be interesting to see what those show

Re: Long range model discussion

Posted: Mon May 16, 2022 3:29 pm
by Stormlover2020
Stratton20 wrote: Sat May 14, 2022 12:26 pm Whatever forms in the caribbean (if anything at all) will not be a threat to us at all, this is likely an eastern gulf threat if anything does form

Never say it will never be a threat to us, we don’t even know where it would form if something did form.

Re: Long range model discussion

Posted: Mon May 16, 2022 3:36 pm
by Stratton20
Stormlocer2020 I should say * likely wont be a threat * lots can change, but even if something forms and thats even if it survices land interaction and shear, the steering pattern doesnt look favorable for a Texas landfall

Re: Long range model discussion

Posted: Mon May 16, 2022 4:06 pm
by Stormlover2020
Nobody knows 10 days away, all depends where ridge is at, doesn’t matter would just be rain

Re: Long range model discussion

Posted: Mon May 16, 2022 4:10 pm
by Stratton20
StormLover2020 you are right, I do expect changes in the forecast, even a weak sloppy system can cause problems

Re: Long range model discussion

Posted: Tue May 17, 2022 6:00 pm
by Stormlover2020
Gfs is caving