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captainbarbossa19 yep models are starting to break dow. the ridge over us late next week, we will see if anything develops in the caribbean but the 12z EPS guidance does have a fairly healthy amount of support for the wave on the operational run

12z GEFS maybe sniffing out something at the end of next week, could just be typical model biacy though

The CMC, UKMET, ICON, and Euro all show potential development in the MDR. The GFS is the only model not showing anything..go figure.

Cpv17 thats kind of ironic if you ask me , but this is interesting, the latest EPS guidance over the next 9-10 days came out and beaides that wave in the MDR it has a 10-20% probability of potential development in the northern gulf, obviously low but given the history that the EPS is just as conservative as its operational run in terms of showing any signs of development, it certainly is interesting

12z Euro has a weak vorticity signature in the 850mb levels in the gulf approaching Texas at hour 216 , this kind of alligns with what the eps is showing in my post above, maybe a weak low?

Yep it shows a weak surface low developing and moving west into Texas around the southern periphery of high pressure.GFS develops a surface trough/low also but has it forming further north and east in the southeast instead.Would be nice to get some rain but not getting my hopes up...LOL

Don at least on the Euro run , kinda looks similar to how barry formed, but fingers crossed, anything that could bring us rain (not too much of course) is appreciated

Yep another good example of such a pattern would be Tropical Storm Edouard in 2008.

Don the 18z GFS around the 27/28th also develops a surface low and heads towards texas, with a little bit of a stronger vorticity signature at least at the 500 mb levels, just something to watch, though

12z Euro ensembles are quite determined that we will have a storm in the Caribbean next week. Some even show a potential hurricane. If this happens, we are going to be in a for a very long show this season.

captainbarbossa19 yep that will be interesting to see how the wave the EPS shows evolves, also EPS showing some sort of weak system potentially in the gulf next week, thats something to watch as well

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Tue Jun 21, 2022 4:34 pm captainbarbossa19 yep that will be interesting to see how the wave the EPS shows evolves, also EPS showing some sort of weak system potentially in the gulf next week, thats something to watch as well

The stronger the storm the more poleward that would go. A weak storm would most likely just crash into Central America.

Cpv17 true, but we will see if the wave can survive its track first, definitely has some obstacles ahead of it, also will see what “may” try to happen in the gulf next week

06z GFS showing possible TC genesis next week, we will see if model runs going forward are consistent or not

12z GFS hinting at some gulf mischief by around the 24/25th, far out, but it is hurricane season and that is also around the time that a favorable phase of the MJO will be making its return to the Atlantic basin

The August 1st-5th time frame might be one to watch, the GFS including its latest 18z run is hinting at some sort of tropical entity in the western GOM, it is far out but just something interesting to “watch”

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Sun Jul 24, 2022 6:20 pm The August 1st-5th time frame might be one to watch, the GFS including its latest 18z run is hinting at some sort of tropical entity in the western GOM, it is far out but just something interesting to “watch”

Yep. It is flip-flopping right now on something. If it starts being consistent, and more models jump on board, I will start paying more attention.

captainbarbossa19 3 of the pst 4 runs it has shown something, I will say though even though the euro isnt showing the GFS system, the Euro does indicate on the wind shear anomaly run, below normal wind shear in the GOM during the same time period as the GFS system fwiw, the 12z EPS is also the same as the operational run

This is day 10 on the 18z GEFS, maybe something to watch down the road?

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Wed Jul 27, 2022 7:07 pm This is day 10 on the 18z GEFS, maybe something to watch down the road?

Here is the 6z GEFS. Obviously this is too far out, but it is picking up on better conditions soon. Also, not liking the locations.