Page 6 of 32

Re: Long range model discussion

Posted: Tue Jun 21, 2022 4:34 pm
by Stratton20
captainbarbossa19 yep that will be interesting to see how the wave the EPS shows evolves, also EPS showing some sort of weak system potentially in the gulf next week, thats something to watch as well

Re: Long range model discussion

Posted: Tue Jun 21, 2022 5:08 pm
by Cpv17
Stratton20 wrote: Tue Jun 21, 2022 4:34 pm captainbarbossa19 yep that will be interesting to see how the wave the EPS shows evolves, also EPS showing some sort of weak system potentially in the gulf next week, thats something to watch as well
The stronger the storm the more poleward that would go. A weak storm would most likely just crash into Central America.

Re: Long range model discussion

Posted: Tue Jun 21, 2022 5:14 pm
by Stratton20
Cpv17 true, but we will see if the wave can survive its track first, definitely has some obstacles ahead of it, also will see what “may” try to happen in the gulf next week

Re: Long range model discussion

Posted: Tue Jul 05, 2022 9:36 am
by Stratton20
06z GFS showing possible TC genesis next week, we will see if model runs going forward are consistent or not

Re: Long range model discussion

Posted: Sat Jul 16, 2022 12:13 pm
by Stratton20
12z GFS hinting at some gulf mischief by around the 24/25th, far out, but it is hurricane season and that is also around the time that a favorable phase of the MJO will be making its return to the Atlantic basin

Re: Long range model discussion

Posted: Sun Jul 24, 2022 6:20 pm
by Stratton20
The August 1st-5th time frame might be one to watch, the GFS including its latest 18z run is hinting at some sort of tropical entity in the western GOM, it is far out but just something interesting to “watch”

Re: Long range model discussion

Posted: Sun Jul 24, 2022 9:08 pm
by captainbarbossa19
Stratton20 wrote: Sun Jul 24, 2022 6:20 pm The August 1st-5th time frame might be one to watch, the GFS including its latest 18z run is hinting at some sort of tropical entity in the western GOM, it is far out but just something interesting to “watch”
Yep. It is flip-flopping right now on something. If it starts being consistent, and more models jump on board, I will start paying more attention.

Re: Long range model discussion

Posted: Sun Jul 24, 2022 9:44 pm
by Stratton20
captainbarbossa19 3 of the pst 4 runs it has shown something, I will say though even though the euro isnt showing the GFS system, the Euro does indicate on the wind shear anomaly run, below normal wind shear in the GOM during the same time period as the GFS system fwiw, the 12z EPS is also the same as the operational run

Re: Long range model discussion

Posted: Wed Jul 27, 2022 7:07 pm
by Stratton20
This is day 10 on the 18z GEFS, maybe something to watch down the road?

Re: Long range model discussion

Posted: Thu Jul 28, 2022 12:38 pm
by captainbarbossa19
Stratton20 wrote: Wed Jul 27, 2022 7:07 pm This is day 10 on the 18z GEFS, maybe something to watch down the road?
Here is the 6z GEFS. Obviously this is too far out, but it is picking up on better conditions soon. Also, not liking the locations.

Image

Re: Long range model discussion

Posted: Thu Jul 28, 2022 2:06 pm
by Stratton20
captainbarbossa19 far out for sure but man most of those members are pretty strong, which isn’t surprising mainly because august-september is usually when we get stronger systems conpared to june/july which are more shared and lopsided, definitely something to watch over the next 7-10 days

Edit: 12z GEFS still has a pretty strong signal as well

Re: Long range model discussion

Posted: Fri Jul 29, 2022 12:38 am
by Stratton20
Long range 00z GFS, yes this is going to change a bazillion times, mainly for fun, but it does show us that the Atlantic will be coming to life in a few weeks

Re: Long range model discussion

Posted: Sat Jul 30, 2022 6:41 pm
by Stratton20
Lol the 18z GFS is smoking rocks🤣

Re: Long range model discussion

Posted: Sat Jul 30, 2022 7:31 pm
by Stormlover2020
Smoking rocks, could be wrong but it’s almost august it hasn’t spit out to many phantom storms in a while, heart of the season is coming up so doesn’t surprise me one bit

Re: Long range model discussion

Posted: Sat Jul 30, 2022 8:50 pm
by Stratton20
Stormlove2020 Oh i mean smoking rocks because it kindof just meanders the system around in the GOM while going down to the low 930’s which is cat 5,

Re: Long range model discussion

Posted: Sat Aug 06, 2022 12:05 pm
by Stratton20
12z GFS briefly shows a low pressure forming off the coast of Louisiana next week fwiw

Re: Long range model discussion

Posted: Sat Aug 06, 2022 1:27 pm
by captainbarbossa19
Stratton20 wrote: Sat Aug 06, 2022 12:05 pm 12z GFS briefly shows a low pressure forming off the coast of Louisiana next week fwiw
My luck it will hit Louisiana and make travel a mess for me heading to Starkville on Friday. I would rather the Gulf hold off until after I move in. Lol

Re: Long range model discussion

Posted: Sat Aug 06, 2022 1:30 pm
by Stratton20
captainbarbossa19 on that run the low pretty much traverses the coastline of Louisiana until getting pulled northward around vermillion bay, ICON is further south though

Re: Long range model discussion

Posted: Sun Aug 07, 2022 3:27 pm
by Stratton20
12z ICON with a moderate tropical storm around saturday/sunday fwiw

Re: Long range model discussion

Posted: Mon Aug 08, 2022 1:27 pm
by Pas_Bon
Stratton20 wrote: Sat Jul 30, 2022 8:50 pm Stormlove2020 Oh i mean smoking rocks because it kindof just meanders the system around in the GOM while going down to the low 930’s which is cat 5,
Considering the GOM SST's and ENSO forecasts, I wouldn't be completely shocked by this.....